UFC 187 promises to be one of the most important events of the mixed martial arts year. Headliners Anthony Johnson and Daniel Cormier square off for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, which had been held by Jon Jones for the past four years.
Due to Jones’ various legal problems, the UFC stripped him of the title and gave Cormier a bout against Johnson to determine the new champion.
In addition to crowning a new light heavyweight champ, UFC 187 will feature Chris Weidman defending the middleweight title against Vitor Belfort. It’s not unusual for UFC to have a show with two title fights, but the events surrounding the main event are so unique that this card takes on a different aura.
Johnson and Cormier are two of the best and most exciting fighters in the sport. Combined, they have just one loss in their last eight UFC fights, with four of those seven wins coming via stoppage.
UFC is not holding back anything to ensure a great night of fights. Here’s the entire card and predictions for what to expect Saturday night.
Pay-per-view main card starts at 10 p.m. ET. Fox Sports 1 preliminary card starts at 8 p.m. ET. UFC Fight Pass preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET.
Main Event Pick: Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier
It would be hard to find a better main event among current fighters on the roster than Johnson vs. Cormier. Johnson has been a different fighter since returning to the UFC in April 2014, winning all three fights with the last two coming via TKO in the first round.
He made an interesting comment about the change in his opponent from Jones to Cormier, noting the new challenger will present a more difficult challenge, via Damon Martin of Fox Sports:
I get to fight another elite athlete, a guy who, in my opinion, is actually a tougher fight for me than Jon Jones. DC’s a grinder, he brings it and this is his second chance, so I know he’s going to bring it even more. This is the same for everybody at the end of the day. You have two guys who are hungry to get the belt, and that’s what it’s about.
Even though Jones is a superior fighter to Cormier, there is something to be said for the way Cormier fights that can drive an opponent nuts. He’s evolved a lot over the years, going back to his Strikeforce days as a pure wrestler and submission specialist.
Per UFC.com, Cormier‘s striking is superior to Johnson’s with more significant strikes landed per minute (3.78 to 3.33) and better accuracy (48.12 percent to 45.47). Johnson has had more success grappling, though, with 2.53 takedowns landed per fight and 85 percent of takedowns defended.
It’s interesting to see how well Johnson does grappling because he’s not a submission fighter. Three of his four career losses have come via submission, and none of his 19 wins have come via submission (13 knockouts, six decisions).
The difference in the fight is Cormier‘s versatility. Even though the numbers favor Johnson as a wrestler, Cormier always has that skill in his back pocket dating back to his days as a junior college national champion in 2004.
There’s every reason to expect a close fight between two excellent competitors, but Cormier‘s all-around game and refusal to quit in his last bout with Jones at UFC 182 will give him a slight edge when the judges score the bout.
Cormier wins via split decision.
Middleweight Title Pick: Chris Weidman (c) vs. Vitor Belfort
Another year, another Belfort title fight. He’s one of those fighters who always win enough to justify getting a shot, but he so often comes up short when the lights are brightest.
Belfort‘s biggest win was for the light heavyweight title in 2004 against Randy Couture, though it wasn’t a dominant performance. One of the seams on his glove grazed Couture’s eye and caused the doctor to stop it early in the first round.
Couture got a rematch in August and dominated Belfort for three rounds before the referee stopped the fight. The 38-year-old is 0-3 in his last three title fights, though an optimist would point out those three fights came against three of the best fighters in MMA history (Couture, Anderson Silva, Jon Jones).
Belfort does provide a lot of excitement in his fights, regardless of the outcome. Going back to his Affliction days in 2008, his last 10 fights have all ended via stoppage.
This is Belfort‘s first fight since November 2013 due to various reasons, highlighted by a failed drug test for elevated levels of testosterone in February 2014.
Weidman has also had a long layoff, as he’ll be stepping into the Octagon for the first time since last July. He was scheduled to fight Belfort at UFC 181 in December and again at UFC 184, but the middleweight champion suffered injuries in training prior to both matches.
Weidman is on top of the MMA world right now. He ended Silva’s 17-match winning streak to capture the middleweight title and technically won the rematch even though it was stopped because Silva broke his own leg delivering a kick. Most recently, Weidman stopped Lyoto Machida to move his career record to 12-0.
The middleweight champion also presents a more well-rounded fighting style that can give Belfort problems, as ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto noted in his preview:
(Belfort‘s) not especially mobile, however, and Weidman should have plenty of opportunities to get this fight to the floor. Belfort is a threat off his back but Weidman‘s submission defense and ground-and-pound technique are exceptional. As good as Belfort‘s hips are on the floor, he’ll be in trouble if Weidman puts him on his back.
In a conference call, via Damon Martin of Fox Sports, Weidman said that he doesn’t expect to show any ring rust after being off for 10 months:
I mean, we’re in a tough sport. We’re always coming back from injuries, so it’s just like my wrestling background. You get hurt and you become stronger from it, and obviously I hurt my ribs. And it wasn’t — they healed pretty well. It healed fast, and I’ve had no issues in training again with the ribs. So no, I’m not worried about any ring rust, no worries about my ribs at all. So all good.
Weidman is operating at another level than anyone else in the middleweight division. Belfort isn’t a traditional middleweight, floating between 185 pounds and 205 pounds throughout his career, so the power he boasts in a punch could be more than Weidman is used to.
However, until Belfort proves he can rise to the occasion in a championship fight, his resume at 38 years old doesn’t support him being able to knock off a star in his prime.
Weidman wins via second-round TKO.
Fight of the Night: Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski
In the scheme of things, Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski isn’t going to change the heavyweight division landscape. Browne may crawl his way back into the title picture with a second consecutive win after his loss to Fabricio Werdum last April.
Yet certain matchups can provide all the entertainment fans need without turning someone into a star or altering the championship picture.
Browne has 11 career UFC fights (8-2-1) going back to his victory at The Ultimate Fighter 11 finale in 2010, with eight of them ending via stoppage, including his first-round knockout of Brendan Schaub at UFC 181. He’s also a fighter who just wants to put his hands up and throw, regardless of what happens.
Per UFC.com stats, Browne absorbs more significant strikes per minute (3.51) than he gives (2.91), yet he’s only been knocked out once in his career. Arlovski is a prominent striker with better defense, landing 2.96 significant strikes per minute and only taking 2.3.
That would seem to give Arlovski the edge, but he’s been prone to knockouts in the past with seven of his 10 career losses coming by punches. Browne is a step up in competition from recent opponents like Antonio Silva and Brendan Schaub.
Browne doesn’t have to be on point with his punching to defeat Arlovski. He just has to keep bringing the pressure, which won’t be a problem.
Browne wins via third-round TKO.
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