Saturday night in Las Vegas, the hottest fighter in MMA will climb into the cage to face one of the elite fighters in his division as Conor McGregor battles Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. Mendes is a late replacement for reigning featherweight champion Jose Aldo, who withdrew with an injury.
It’s a disappointment that Aldo once more will fail to defend his title, but Mendes vs. McGregor is not much of a step down in terms of potential fireworks and drama. McGregor has electrified crowds, but against Mendes, we’ll truly get to see how good the Irishman really is.
A former All-American wrestler, Mendes has lost just twice in his career, both times to Aldo. Against the rest of the featherweight division, he has been a dominant, grinding fighter.
Both men have the potential to finish things off in exciting fashion. The odds on this fight reflect the fact, with McGregor and Mendes going off nearly even.
According to Odds Shark, McGregor is a modest favorite of minus-185. Mendes is an underdog of just plus-160. Considering the popularity of McGregor, that’s a very tight line.
My feeling is Mendes will pull off a minor upset in this fight and finally capture a version of the world title. From the perspective of building storylines, it would be more exciting for McGregor to sleep Mendes in dramatic fashion and then build even longer toward a showdown with Aldo.
But it’s all about reality in the cage. Realistically, McGregor certainly has a shot at winning this fight by knockout.
But Mendes will use his elite wrestling to grind out a rough, hard-fought decision. He’ll manage to hang tough on his feet and then use the clinch to score with dirty boxing and push the fight to where he wants it to happen, on the mat and against the cage.
Odds and Predictions for Rest of the Main Card
If Odds Shark has things tight for McGregor and Mendes, it’s got them even closer for the co-main event, Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler. MacDonald is a slight favorite at just minus-170, and Lawler is the underdog at plus-150.
Lawler, age 33, is one of the sport’s most experienced veterans and a historical tie-in to the old days of Pat Miletich’s elite fighting squads. It took him 14 years and 10 losses before he finally captured the world title, but after his title win over champion Johny Hendricks last December, few would question his elite status.
At just 25, MacDonald has to be viewed as something of a prodigy. He’s intelligent, athletic and a well-rounded fighter in general. One of his only two career losses came against Lawler by split decision in 2013.
MacDonald’s other loss was against Carlos Condit in 2010. It was a Round 3 TKO loss in a Fight of the Night effort. At the time, Condit was one of the stars of the division, and MacDonald had yet to turn 21.
I hate to pick against a veteran like Lawler, but a young athlete with MacDonald’s skills and intelligence just won’t lose a rematch of a close fight from two years ago against a much older fighter.
MacDonald will get the better of some crisp striking on the feet and will manage to secure a takedown and a dominant position in at least one round to earn a decision win.
Two experienced featherweights in their primes will face off when Jeremy Stephens meets Dennis Bermudez. It’s frankly surprising that Odds Shark has this one as close as it does. It lists Bermudez at just minus-210.
The well-traveled Stephens is an underdog of just plus-175. It’s difficult to reconcile betting on him in this fight for such a low payout.
Stephens is coming off of two losses. While only a year older than Bermudez, he’s got a lot more miles on his tires. Expect Bermudez to use his strong wrestling background to control the fight and beat Stephens up to win by late TKO.
In yet another close fight on this card, Odds Shark has welterweight Brandon Thatch as a minor favorite at minus-175, with Gunnar Nelson listed as a plus-155 underdog.
This is a very tough pick to make. Thatch showed true game before losing by submission to former lightweight champion Benson Henderson. But I’m going to pick Nelson, a Renzo Gracie black belt, to win by submission.
By far the biggest underdog on the main card is Brad Pickett. Odds Shark has him as plus-610 and his opponent, Thomas Almeida, as a minus-920 favorite.
I can’t disagree with this one. The undefeated Almeida is a 23-year-old phenom. The bantamweight represents the legendary Chute Boxe Academy.
Almeida is 19-0 with 14 KOs and four submissions. Expect him to record another one Saturday. There’s a good chance it will be one of the main things fight fans are discussing afterward.
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