UFC 189 will conclude Saturday night in Las Vegas with the crowning of a new champion, as Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor meet for the interim featherweight belt. This fight was a late change, as champion Jose Aldo withdrew with an injury, leaving the space for former challenger Mendes to step in.
Mendes vs. McGregor is one of just two title fights on the schedule, as welterweight champion Robbie Lawler defends against Rory MacDonald.
The entire main card is as follows:
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Division |
| Chad Mendes | Conor McGregor | Featherweight |
| Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald | Welterweight |
| Dennis Bermudez | Jeremy Stephens | 149.5 Catchweight |
| Gunnar Nelson | Brandon Thatch | Welterweight |
| Thomas Almeida | Brad Pickett | Bantamweight |
The start time for the PPV main card is 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT, so the main event should kick off just after midnight. The Fight Pass prelims start at 7 p.m. ET, and the Fox Sports 1 prelims begin broadcasting an hour later.
While the Aldo-McGregor fight had been a highly anticipated superfight, McGregor vs. Mendes is definitely the next best thing and a great matchup in its own right. Both men have distinct tactical advantages over their opponent. In Mendes‘ case, he is the superior wrestler, but McGregor has a staggering eight-inch reach advantage.
With all the possible outcomes available in an MMA fight, picking a victor is often tough. The tactical advantages each fighter possesses in this one make it particularly dicey.
Speaking to MixedMartialArts.com’s Jonathan Shrager the week, UFC flyweight Joseph Benavidez was confident Mendes, his Team Alpha Male teammate, would prevail, citing the fact that Mendes “has so many ways to win the fight.”
Of course, that sort of confidence coming from Mendes‘ own camp is hardly going to impress the swaggering Irishman. Last night on Twitter, McGregor posted this photo of himself posing with some high-priced jewelry:
Reflecting the close nature of this bout, the MMA media is largely split on their predictions. Stating that Mendes represents “a nightmare matchup for McGregor” due to his wrestling, Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda picked Mendes by Round 3 TKO.
Bleacher Report’s own MMA staff split 3-2 in favor of McGregor with its predictions. Scott Harris, Craig Amos and James McDonald all took Notorious by stoppage, while Riley Kontek had Mendes by Round 3 TKO and Sean Smith picked the American to win by unanimous decision.
The staff picks for MMAJunkie.com were just as close, but in the opposite direction, as it came down 5-4 in favor of Mendes.
On a video posted to the UFC’s own Youtube channel, the results of the professionals polled came out 5-3 in favor of McGregor, but everybody seemed to expect a close fight:
| Ronda Rousey: | McGregor |
| Daniel Cormier: | Mendes |
| Demetrius Johnson | McGregor |
| Jimi Manuwa: | McGregor |
| Joanna Jedrzejcysyk: | McGregor |
| Johny Hendricks: | Mendes |
| Robbie Lawler: | McGregor |
| T.J. Dillashaw: | Mendes |
It should be noted that the three fighters picking Mendes all come from a wrestling background. When you approach MMA with that as your base, it can be very hard to imagine a strong wrestler ever losing a fight to a non-wrestler.
That’s why my own pick ultimately comes down on the side of Mendes. I think McGregor‘s wide stance and front kick will make it very hard for Mendes to set up for a strong double attempt. But he should still be able to force clinches or work for a single leg.
Still, McGregor is a very special kind of striker. He throws very dangerous punches and kicks and can launch them from a dizzying array of angles and distances.
The clash of styles is a big part of what made MMA compelling in the first place. We could see a classic case of it tonight.
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