The UFC begins 2016 with a tantalizing card from Las Vegas on Saturday for UFC 195. Welterweight champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler will defend his title against former interim champion “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit.
In the co-main event, two powerful heavyweight contenders will square off for a chance to challenge for the UFC Heavyweight title. Stipe Miocic faces “The Pitbull” Andrei Arlovski in what could be a destructive bout. Here’s a look at the viewing information and predictions for the entire card.
Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
- Champ Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit – for welterweight title – Condit by TKO
- Andrei Arlovski vs. Stipe Miocic – Arlovski by TKO
- Lorenz Larkin vs. Albert Tumenov – Larkin by TKO
- Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega – Ortega by decision
- Tony Sims vs. Abel Trujillo – Trujillo by KO
Preliminary Card (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET)
- Masanori Kanehara vs. Michael McDonald – McDonald by TKO
- Nina Ansaroff vs. Justine Kish – Kish by decision
- Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman – Holtzman by submission
- Alex Morono vs. Kyle Noke – Noke by TKO
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET)
- Joseph Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier – Duffy by TKO
- Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka – Soto by decision
- Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott – Garcia by TKO
Predictions for Four Most Interesting Fights on the Card
Duffy over Poirier
Dustin Poirier was supposed to meet Joseph Duffy in the headline bout at UFC Fight Night 76, but the latter was scratched because of injury. The two talented lightweights will get it on in the featured UFC Fight Pass prelims on Saturday’s card.
Since moving up to 155 pounds, Poirier has looked like a new man. He’s won two fights in a row, finishing both by KO/TKO. Duffy is a different breed of lightweight than the ones Poirier has faced since joining the division.
The Ireland native is a physical grappler with excellent reach and length. He’s also the last man to defeat Conor McGregor. Duffy submitted the current UFC featherweight champion back in 2010.
At 5’10”, Duffy is one of the few fighters in the weight region that Poirier won’t be able to control with his long frame. Poirier may have a slight edge on the ground, as he is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu compared to the blue belt Duffy holds, but the difference won’t be significant enough.
Duffy’s strength and speed advantage as a striker will lead to a second-round TKO victory.
McDonald over Kanehara
After being sidelined almost two years with a hand injury, Michael McDonald is set to step back into the Octagon. His opponent, Masanori Kanehara, is an exciting Japanese fighter, but to put it plain, he’s going to get smashed on Saturday.
Assuming McDonald isn’t terribly rusty, his striking prowess will overcome Kanehara inside the first round. McDonald is too strong and accurate with his punches (42 percent striking accuracy, per FightMetric.com).
He won’t waste time disposing of Kanehara in an effort to emphatically announce his return to the UFC bantamweight division.
Miocic over Arlovski
Funny things happen in heavyweight bouts, but you can almost bet someone’s going to get knocked out in the co-main event. Neither Miocic nor Arlovski are big on grappling. Miocic does average 2.16 takedown attempts per fight, but he does his best work during stand-up exchanges.
While he’s dangerous as a striker, Miocic has had some issues protecting himself against shots. He’s defending just 52 percent of the strikes thrown at him. That could be a major problem against a big puncher like Arlovski.
Call him lucky, fortunate, opportunistic or anything else, but Arlovski has done nothing but win since he returned to the UFC in 2014. Many of us have simply been waiting for him to lose—officially (he deserved the loss when he defeated Brendan Schaub by decision in his UFC return)—but he keeps putting numbers in the win column.
Against a talented, but inconsistent opponent like Miocic, Arlovski is the pick to win again in this one. I’m calling the Pitbull for the win via third-round TKO.
Condit over Lawler
MMA History Today is one of many expecting the UFC 195 main event to be an epic clash:
It’s unlikely Lawler and Condit disappoint, but that’s not a good look for the champion. Lawler has been a great champion, but his reign has to come to an end at some point. There are so many legitimate contenders at 170 pounds, and Lawler has been in quite a few wars. His two battles with Johny Hendricks and his career-shortening masterpiece against Rory MacDonald will take a toll on him at some point.
Condit will bring him another one, and this time, Lawler won’t be the last man standing. Condit is hungry, skilled and very tough. He’s three inches taller and more talented using his feet as weapons with kicks.
Expect Condit to hurt Lawler with leg kicks and high kicks to the head. Lawler is as tough as they come, but Condit will wear him down and finish him in the fourth round in what will prove to be another classic UFC welterweight title bout.
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