Demian Maia and Matt Brown sound like two old veterans, but are beating the youth in the division left and right. They”ll finally get to avoid picking on youth for UFC 198 in Brazil.
Editor’s Note: Alves and Barberena are on the main card while Maia and Brown are on the Fox Sports 1 preliminary card. Mistake on my part for getting my signals crossed.
As good a welterweight matchup as you’ll find this year this May 14, 2016 at the Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Brazil.
The Match Up
Welterweight Demian Maia 22-6 vs. Matt Brown 20-13
The Odds
Welterweight Demian Maia -325 vs. Matt Brown +265
3 Things You Should Know
1. Maia is experiencing a viagratic like resurgence in the division despite an age and style some felt would doom him.
I don’t know that I ever counted Maia out in the division. I just thought he’d hit a stylistic plateau; a lot of fights at 170 are tough for him just because a lot of the current elite have bricks for fists. But with four wins over decent (LaFlare) to really good competition (Nelson, Magny), it’s clear that Maia is still the threat he’s always been even at 38 years of age. He’s taking on a fighter equally old, but unequally violent on the feet.
2. Brown is another unlikely veteran playing a young man’s game better than the young men. I thought only heavyweight reserved to right to subvert expectations.
Since 2012, the only losses on Matt Brown’s record belong to Robbie Lawler (current champion), and Johny Hendricks (former champion). Am I supposed to say much more, here? Like Maia, age and style has always had me within of skeptic’s breath of analyzing his fall, and like Maia (or like my inability to analyze perhaps), the dude just keeps junkyard dogging his way through the welterweight hierarchy.
3. Maia will take this convincingly. But I’m never right about these guys so fingers crossed for the reverse jinx of watching this turn into a slugfest.
The most underrated part of Maia’s game has always been his core strength. Yes, it was on display against Rick Story, when he squeezed the sinuses out of him. But so many of his fights are fought on an axis he either dictates, forces, or successfully avoids that the pattern becomes clear: he’s able to impose his will more often than his opponent. For a guy who doesn’t really pass the eye test in athleticism, that’s an impressive feat going beyond simply his world class technique. But oh yea there’s that.
I didn’t expect him to beat Gunnar Nelson, but it was a dominating performance that looks even better in retrospect. The other thing I’ve always noted is Maia’s striking. It’s still anything but organic, and clearly not a part of his efficiency wheelhouse, but the punches themselves are thrown with enough acumen that a little more conviction with the support of said core strength sometimes go a long way in avoiding being overwhelmed. He’s gone the distance with a lot of good strikers in losing, so I don’t think Brown will suddenly dismantle him despite his style.
Brown will have to deal with Maia’s groundwork. On the feet, Brown can make it tough for any fighter on the planet at this weight. Calling his striking “blue collar” is just lazy. Just because he’s not an athlete in the elite sense doesn’t mean his striking isn’t quick or powerful, which is why I’ve often underestimated him (that and I never forgot that loss to Amir Sadollah on the show). The movement is raw, but the execution is not. What really separates Brown from other strikers is his ability to generate fight ending strikes in the clinch. His forte is proximity violence, and there are few who do it as well as Matt Brown.
Prediction
While I think Brown is more than capable of winning on the feet, Maia has such a polished record of dealing with fighters like Brown (Marquardt broken hamster wheel knockout notwithstanding), I just can’t pick against him. In addition, Brown has a distinct history of losing to submissions (9 via loss to them). While it’s been awhile, I can think of few fighters more capable of forcing Brown into a grappling exchange than Maia. Demian Maia by RNC, round 2.