Phil and David break down everything you need to know about two middleweights with gold on their mind at UFC 198 in Brazil, and everything you don’t about whether Jacare’s skull physiology.
Jacare Souza and Vitor Belfort climb one last rung before title contention versus oblivion this May 14, 2016 at the Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Brazil.
Single sentence summary:
Phil: The old young lion tries not to stray too close to the edge of the waterhole.
David: The young dinosaur battles the triassic alligator for middleweight natural selection.
Stats
Record: Middleweight Ronaldo Souza 22-4-1 NC vs. Vitor Belfort 25-11
Odds: Middleweight Ronaldo Souza -315 vs. Vitor Belfort +285
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: I’m going to miss Vitor Belfort when he’s gone. Not even really his fighting, which has become increasingly one-note, but just his weird presence. He has the same kind of unique, self-centered lens that he looks at the world through as Bethe Correia does. I know most people find it incredibly annoying, but I find it kind of fascinating and almost… refreshing? He sometimes has genuine points to make which are often studded in amongst his bizarre self-mythologizing. That said, I think Vitor’s self-aggrandizing ways and his mercenary realism are starting to clash a bit here- even he realizes he’s getting to the end of a long and characteristically odd career.
David: It’s important to remember that Belfort is a qualified celebrity in his home country. Celebrities love to nurture their eccentricities with a ball peen hammer, which is what makes them insufferable. To have that kind of demeanor in an MMA fighter is what makes his presence welcome. I like hearing what he has to say too. It helps that his fighting style, for however chemically enhanced, is fun to watch too.
Phil: Vitor has been someone who’s been catapulted back to the top of the sport multiple times by combinations of luck, physical gifts and historical cachet. Jacare, conversely, has been that guy that just keeps getting subtly derailed. Whether it’s his opponents getting injured and pulling out, or losing a decision to Romero (who promptly popped), or just struggling to get bookings. Jacare is a physical freak. He has a cool alligator gimmick, he normally finishes or messes up his opponents, and his head is an awesome shape. He should be more of a star than he is.
David: Did you just compliment the shape of his skull? Kudos. I never paid too much attention. Then I went to google and noticed a very sleak, hydra (the monster, not the shadow organization) like quality to the contours of his head.
Jacare would be a star if the UFC also kind of helped give him a marketing boost. Then again he doesn’t have blonde hair and blue eyes like Page and Sage, so I can see how he would fall by the ‘Dana’s jealous he doesn’t look as good without hair’ wayside.
What are the stakes?
Phil: This one seems like it’s been set up for Jacare as a bit of an apology for the Romero situation- a winnable fight in front of the home crowd. However, a Vitor win isn’t dreadful for the UFC. He’s always been a big name. I don’t think he ever sniffs a title shot again, but he can always lend some interest to other fighters in the division. I guess this is why he’s constantly in “the mix”- he’s the Triple H of 185.
David: I don’t understand wrestling references not because I have a childish judgment of people who haven’t put away childish things like the rest of us, but because I stopped watching pro wrestling after I started renting UFC’s at my local blockbuster (true story). The stakes are higher than they look between two fighters who have lost recently (yes I know Vitor won his last bout). Mainly because they’re still so unbelievably dangerous.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Vitor is a counterpuncher these days. He fights out of a slightly lowered stance, then hits the opponent with a left straight or left head kick. He’s got the short uppercut which is a bit of a staple of the Blackzilians, but other than that? Like a number of aging fighters, his approach has been reduced down over time. A vet’s cunning is focused down onto the few tools that he’s absolutely sure are still reliable at this point. I’m not sure if he can hit anything like the armbar attempt he almost got Jones with, but it’d be interesting to see him try?
David: To be fair, Vitor isn’t quite at Alovski’s level, where he’s a plate of bean pods and a potato. Belfort is still quick, powerful, and dangerous with more than just his fists. But he understands what part of his game gives him the best chance to win. His volume has dropped, but he’s still great at shot selection. I don’t even think it’s really a counterpuncher ability he has. I think his counterpunchers are just byproducts of his quick reflex to strike back. He maintains a strange illusion of timing that feels powered more by gut reaction than violent deliberation.
Phil: Vitor uses less tools than he used to nowadays, but Jacare uses more. Just about. He still likes his right hand a lot, but he’s got a left hook and a jab that he throws in combination. The biggest change that Jacare has shown over the years is an increased focus on body work- snap kick to the body, left hook to the body, right straight to the body. It makes for an interesting triple threat when you throw in the takedowns. Jacare tends to be a slower paced, almost sleepy fighter… until he grabs a hold of the opponent. Which makes sense, considering his name and all. He’ll relentlessly chain together singles and body lock takedowns. Unlike many BJJ transfers, he also has an exceptionally clean double leg. Once on top, it’s basically a wrap, courtesy of maybe the best punch-pass-submit top game around.
David: He has quite a bit of the Diaz brothers in him when he’s on the ground. There was a stretch there in Strikeforce where he wasn’t quite blending his ability to smash face on the ground with his ridiculous grappling aptitude, and had a hard finishing lesser fighters. Eventually he realized that in MMA, the equivalent of forehead clutching, and wrist manipulation is a nice bloody elbow to the dome. He has a quality killer instinct despite his somnambulent demeanor. I wasn’t sold on the evolution of his striking until the Luke Rockhold fight. Some of this is just his natural athleticism at work, but he’s become a student of midrange pressure with his body work, kicks, and hooks.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: The Romero fight was concerning in some ways for Jacare. Not so much in the way he got hurt early on by a backfist- everyone gets hit by yolo strikes every now and again, no matter how careful they are. No, what was more worrying was the way that he was subsequently unable to put it on Romero until the third round.
Like Romero, Vitor is an explosive, left-straight centric southpaw whose weakness is likely consistent pressure. If Jacare can’t find a way to open him up, he may be in trouble. More pertinently for us, it may make the fight really boring.
David: It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Belfort in against someone truly committed to taking the fight down. In a way there’s very little to say about the potential interaction of styles as a result. Belfort’s game has been chiseled down, yet he’s kept most of his speed. But Jacare isn’t exactly Matt Lindland waddling toward the clinch out of desperation. Even Chris Weidman had to endure a classic Belfort blitz before finding his way on his back.
X-Factors?
Phil: Have Vitor’s new plans to kickstart his training camps born fruition? Seriously, there isn’t much I can think of. Vitor’s decline is not an X-factor but a simple biological fact at this point.
David: Yea but was biogenesis. You can’t overstate father time. But you can’t understate father technology either. Not that I’m making any hasty assumptions about performance assisting technology on Vitor’s part. I’m just saying.
Prognostication:
Phil: Vitor is still an explosive finisher, and Jacare is going to operate at the kinds of ranges that will give the Phenom opportunities to land offense. That said, Belfort is 39 and is coming up on his 20th year in the sport, has never been able to come back from bad positions, and in his last fight against a good grappler attempted to punch his way out of mount. Jacare Souza by submission, round 2.
David: Jacare is only three years younger than Belfort. It’s not like he isn’t dealing with a biological clock either. For that reason, I think this is one of those random fights where Jacare doesn’t get started out of sheer young dinosaur mayhem. He’s not a slow starter, but he’s a deliberate one. Belfort feasts on fighters with a linear path toward beating him. Weidman and Jones walk a higher path, and Anderson Silva was in his prime otherwise you have to go back to 2006 to see him comfortably walked through. His punchline personality cracks his fight credibility by accident, but it shouldn’t. He’s still a premier prizefighter. And I think he takes it, derailing Jacare’s path toward the title yet again. Vitor Belfort by TKO, round 2.