Michael Bisping is the betting favourite for his middleweight title fight against challenger Dan Henderson at UFC 204 at the Manchester Arena in England. The main event will take place in the early hours of Sunday morning, with Clitheroe native Bisping keen to avenge a 2009 knockout loss to the American.
The rest of the card is highlighted by Gegard Mousasi’s fight with Vitor Belfort. Here’s the schedule, along with the latest odds, courtesy of Odds Shark:
Predictions
Bisping is the favourite, but it’s Henderson who may have more motivation than the reigning champion. After all, the 46-year-old is planning to retire after the fight, regardless of the outcome.
Of course, if you’re talking motivation, Bisping’s pride dictates he’ll be determined to erase painful memories from seven years ago. Back then, Henderson floored Bisping in the opening round of UFC 100, with the American also deciding to lay an elbow on a prone Bisping to “shut him up a little bit,” according to Mike Dyce of Sports Illustrated.
The elbow hasn’t done much to weaken Bisping’s confidence, though. In fact, The Count is so sure of himself he’s been content to rib Henderson over his decision to walk away, per Andy Bull of the Guardian: “He hasn’t aged like fine wine. He has gone the other way. I think he’s retiring for a reason.”
Bisping has even gone as far as to predict a third-round stoppage, insisting he’s going to make Henderson show his age, according to Damon Martin of Fox Sports.
Fighting in front of a partisan crowd can give Bisping the edge. Yet he also faces extra pressure from trying to please the home faithful. However, The Count thrives under pressure.
The pressure did not unnerve him when he dismantled former champion Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 in June. Bisping boasts the youth and speed to steer clear of Henderson’s formidable striking this time.
The champion’s movement will be key because Henderson remains not only powerful but precise as a striker, with FightMetric crediting him with 48 percent accuracy. But the same source also rates Bisping’s defence at 66 percent, so something has to give.
Henderson may be up there in years, but he’s lost none of his power—at least according to ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto, who noted the challenger remains “always one right hand away from rewriting everything we think we know about a perceived outcome.”
Still, Okamoto believes this will be Bisping’s fight, agreeing with the champion’s view it won’t go beyond three rounds.
Bisping is a different fighter than the upstart whom Henderson put down in 2009. So is Henderson, who is that much slower in 2016. The differences in both men will prove decisive, according to fellow middleweight Mousasi, per James Gray of the Daily Express: “Dan Henderson always has a chance, but I think he is a little slower now and his timing isn’t there.”
Meanwhile, the same source quotes fighter Scott Askham, who believes Bisping is “better prepared” for Henderson’s “knockout power.”
The prevailing notion is a sensible one. Bisping is now more refined as a grappler, but even if he can’t keep things on the mat, he’s gotten smarter at avoiding the kind of big shot that would let Henderson bow out as a champion.
Prediction: Bisping wins by decision.
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