UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis staff picks and predictions

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday night’s UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis pay-per-view event in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

The staff predictions for UFC 206 are in, and only Eddie Mercado is going with Anthony Pettis to beat Max Holloway in the main event, even though Pettis missed weight. As for the co-main, Tim Bissell is backing Matt Brown over Donald Cerrone, but he’s on his own on that one. Yours truly (Mookie Alexander), Ram Gilboa, and Eddie Mercado have Cub Swanson putting a temporary halt to Doo Ho Choi’s hype train.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: A warm welcome to Ram Gilboa, who’d previously done guest spots on Bloody Elbow, including his feature interview with Georges St-Pierre.

Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis

Anton Tabuena: Say what you want about the legitimacy of the belt, but I will not complain about this bout being bumped up to 5 rounds. I am also salivating at the idea of the winner probably being a lock to go against Jose Aldo in yet another stand up affair. Anyway, both these guys are dynamic strikers, but I think Pettis has better kicks, while Holloway has better hands. Pettis looked pretty good in his featherweight debut. He also isn’t undersized in this division, and with this match up of strikers, any holes he may have shown in wrestling when he was at lightweight probably won’t be a factor here. That said, Pettis missed weight badly, so his performance will likely be hindered in the later rounds. Holloway is also arguably the most mobile and complete striker Pettis has faced, and probably holds the edge in power as well. To me, that makes Holloway the favorite. Pettis has a chance to make this interesting if he can control distance with his kicks, especially without the constant threat of a takedown. That’s easier said than done against the lengthy and talented Hawaiian of course, but I do believe that controlling pace and distance will be the key here. I was already picking Holloway by to win by decision before Pettis missed weight, and now I guess it’s more likely that he can get the finish in the latter rounds. Max Holloway by late TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Holloway’s the better striker (read: better boxer by a loooooong way), can actually make 145 without issue, and Pettis just doesn’t throw enough to trust him to win rounds in a five-round fight. His best path to victory is to take Holloway down or for Holloway to get caught by a Pettis submission off of his back. You also can’t discount the power Pettis puts in his kicks, but I’m going with the Hawaiian to put a hurtin’ on Showtime. Max Holloway by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I’m feeling Holloway here. He’s dynamic, and in a way that allows him to still get away with taking multiple risks per fight. His boxing is better, his range is better, he’s fast and strong, and he’s damn near unstoppable right now. Pettis is agile and has been working on his wrestling, but Max can push a pace he won’t be expecting and can make sure Pettis is never in a comfortable striking range. Waianae stand up. Max Holloway by TKO.

Ram Gilboa: After dropping 3 decisions at lightweight, I thought Pettis had a very good debut at feather against Oliveira. His kicks got their shock & awe back; his wrestling, still a plan B, seemed more efficient – and when it failed, the A-plan Jiu-Jitsu was dangerous with evidence. However, Holloway moves too much on his feet, punches too often and too strong, and won’t seek the ground like a shin-shocked Oliveira did. He’s also on his way going places. Pettis weighing in 3 pounds over just makes me more certain Holloway wins a good fight, that’ll favor him more and more as the rounds wear on. (Although I kind of want Pettis to win and have them figure the FW title out then) Max Holloway by decision.

Tim Bissell: I was feeling Pettis as a submission threat to ‘Blessed’ before the drama around making weight surfaced. That’s enough for me to regain my senses and side with Holloway, who may finish a ‘bad-weight-cut’ version of Pettis. Max Holloway by TKO (punches), round 2.

Fraser Coffeen: I’ve long felt Pettis is an inconsistent fighter who takes himself out of winnable fights too often, and this weight issue only furthers my thoughts there. What a mess this card turned out to be. Max Holloway, decision

Eddie Mercado: Pettis has more venom in his strikes and has a pretty stout chin. Plus I’ve seen more from Pettis in terms of ground game. For some reason I can’t shake the memory of Connor McGregor controlling Max Holloway on the ground. Anthony Pettis by decision

Staff picking Holloway: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Pettis: Eddie

Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown

Anton Tabuena: Both men will throw bombs until one falls, probably with a well timed body shot (again)… Who has a bigger chance to make that happen? Tough pick. Cerrone is faster and more technical, while Brown should be stronger and a bit ‘trickier’ in a sense that he doesn’t come with the standard Muay Thai approach. Cerrone has succumbed to good pressure fighters in the past, and against a welterweight in Brown, that could be trouble for him. The two trained together before, and since everyone knows what Cerrone will be bringing, I think being more familiar with each other benefits him more. I see this going either way, but I think if Cerrone avoids getting pressured early, he should be able to use that speed advantage and land a good amount of strikes. Donald Cerrone by TKO (body kick and punches).

Mookie Alexander: Cerrone doesn’t react kindly to well-placed body shots, but Matt Brown legitimately folds himself over when he gets hit to the body. Cowboy’s striking has looked better than ever through the guidance of Brandon Gibson, and while Cerrone by TKO is the popular pick, I see Cowboy hurting Brown and then jumping on his back and sinking in a rear-naked choke. Brown’s got a shot just on his toughness and Muay Thai skills alone, but Cerrone’s a better fighter by a considerable distance. Donald Cerrone by rear-naked choke, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Cerrone’s success at welterweight seems to have accompanied dropping his penchant for being a slow starter. Storming right out of the gate to set the pace is going to benefit him against Brown, and those body kicks will likely crumple the Immortal. This will be a hard-hitting Muay Thai battle of attrition, and Donald takes this by debilitating Brown midway through the first and continues to pick him apart until he finds the right opening to finish the fight.

Ram Gilboa: Hi kids! Do you like violence?

This fight is going to have some of the same effects on the audience of an Eminem song dropping in 1999 – eyes wide open and growing wider by the second, and lot of “holy” and “I can’t believe he just”, and you’re going to talk about it for a while.

They’re both tough, great, high-volume full range muay-thai strikers; although Cerrone is likely the more well-rounded MMA fighter, and is in a better place in his career (part of the reason being he’s not the one who met Demian Maia earlier this year). Besides the – inevitable? – Maia loss, Brown also just got crushed by Jake Ellenberger, putting him two straight in the red. While Cerrone’s last loss a year ago also isn’t a faded memory, it was in a title fight (against RDA), and he since went 3-0 in 2016 with 3 stoppages. I feel like number 4 is coming up. Donald Cerrone by submission, round 2.

Tim Bissell: I smell a late entry for round of the year coming up with both men swinging for the fences (and bonuses). Brown has come out on top of those of chaotic brawls before, and I think he can do it again here – out muscling Cerrone and targeting that Bud Light primed liver. Matt Brown by TKO (body punches), late round 1.

Staff picking Brown: Bissell
Staff picking Cerrone: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

Doo Ho Choi vs. Cub Swanson

Anton Tabuena: Choi looks like a guy Mookie’s age, but I still expect the Korean prospect to shine and get another highlight reel finish here. Doo Ho Choi by KO.

Mookie Alexander: Been picking chalk too much lately, so time to go for an upset here. I love Choi, he’s a terrific talent, but even a slightly past-his-prime Swanson is way way way better than anyone else he’s faced. Swanson is a crafty striker, dangerous on the counter, and very athletic. I do worry about his historically great chin, and chances are Choi can put him away if he lands a solid shot or two, but I’m going with the veteran to find a way to get Choi down and work his top game. Swanson’s not really a good wrestler and Choi has shown quality takedown defense, but I have a feeling Cub’s still got something left in the tank. Cub Swanson by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: This fight has the potential to be an absurd amount of fun. Swanson’s got great boxing skills and movement, and he’s also developed patience and the ability to hang back and play the counter game when needed. Unfortunately, he ends up getting reckless. That’s where he’s at his most vulnerable. Then again, he’s the more experienced of the two. On the other hand, Choi brings a lovely arsenal of confident volume punches in spurts, body kicks and lethal knees. We haven’t seen much of his ground game in the UFC so far, and he’s too content to eat a few shots to give a few, and Swanson can catch him and ruin him. All things considered, I feel Choi stylistically should win this. Smart money says Swanson, but I’m still going with Choi. Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Aw, Cub. Feel like his recent wins have been just on the edge. He had some serious scares from a rather faded Kawajiri and was well on his way to losing to Dias before landing a weird headkick. If he’s taking punches from someone as glacially slow as Kawajiri I can’t help but feel like Choi will catch him sometime early with something big. He’s historically been super tough to take out with strikes, but I just have a bad feeling. Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Choi: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Swanson: Ram, Mookie, Eddie

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Tim Kennedy

Anton Tabuena: Unless ring rust plays a major factor and his timing isn’t there, stylewise, this is really Tim Kennedy’s fight to lose. Tim Kennedy by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Gastelum is in a Johny Hendricks-esque situation where being a 5’9” middleweight is just not going to cut it at the highest level. Johny is staying put at 170 for at least another fight, whereas Gastelum has just bungled too many weight cuts for 170 to seem like his long-term home. The question mark here is Kennedy’s ring rust after being out for over 2 years, but I imagine Gastelum will win the striking exchanges but will not be able to have an answer for Kennedy’s wrestling and stifling top game. Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Gastelum is a tremendous wrestler and a better athlete than he’s given credit for, but no. Kennedy is a tremendous submission grappler that shut down Roger Gracie and punished him in an ugly fight that was only a joy to watch if you’re a grappling fan. Kennedy’s striking is better, he’s probably coming in bigger and his experience will come into play. Gastelum has the makings of a great fighter, but I don’t know if he’s ready for this. While I hope I’m wrong about that, Tim Kennedy by submission.

Ram Gilboa: Gastelum – is he a too-big welterweight? A full-size middleweight? Because on Saturday he is going up against one of the most solid high-level true middleweight contenders, who when last seen gave Yoel Romero a run for his money. (By the way, Romero is a southpaw like Gastelum).

At 25, Gastelum is still very young in MMA, and at the very least grappling-wise, apart from his very nice wrestling, he is years behind Kennedy. This fight would have Kennedy written all over it except for one thing: Gastelum fought in the Octagon five times since September 2014 when Kennedy last stepped in the cage – including a high-profile outing in UFC 200 in Gastelum’s last fight. His striking looked pretty good and improved then against Hendricks, and he always has that perilous southpaw kick. That said, Tim Kennedy by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Think the tone of this one will be set early. Gastelum was a quick welterweight and will likely be blindingly fast at middleweight, with the obvious caveat that he’s going to be dramatically outsized. Kennedy is somewhat of a looping puncher, so don’t be surprised if Gastelum starts out piecing him up with the one-two. The main question is what happens if/when they lock up. Magny was able to soundly outwrestle Gastelum, and despite his excellent scrambling ability Gastelum is going to have even less luck fighting off the top game of Tim Kennedy. The obvious caveat is how often Kennedy has been out. Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Gastelum: Bissell
Staff picking Kennedy: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

Jordan Mein vs. Emil Weber Meek

Anton Tabuena: Mein has been out a while, but he is still a really good and experienced fighter. Even on his last loss against Alves, he was winning handily and looked great until that perfectly placed liver kick ended things in an instant. I will also need to see more from the Palhares slayer at this level before I start picking him. Jordan Mein by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: I still want to believe in Jordan Mein, dammit! I’m worried though that he’s the Joe Stevenson type who will completely fade out of the sport at a young age because he’s had a billion pro fights and turned professional as a teenager. The last time we saw him, he was beating Thiago Alves until he wasn’t. As for Meek, he was last seen thrashing Rousimar Palhares, but it’s not like it’s particularly tough to knock Palhares out. Meek has a cool axe, but he wasn’t allowed to bring it on media day, and I don’t think it’s allowed in the Octagon. So on that note, Jordan Mein by unanimous decision.

Ram Gilboa: This will be Emil “Valhalla” Weber Meek first time inside the octagon – a ticket the 8-2-1 Norwegian got on account of that win against Palhares in Venator – after a fight slated for UFN 93 in Germany against a fellow debuter got cancelled. Jordan Mein is no debuter – a very experienced 27 year old, he was kickboxing at four, and grappling, did the MMA amateur circuit and has behind him 39 pro MMA fights (29-10) – Mein already had time to retire and this is his comeback fight. It has been almost 2 years since Mein’s last time out, a TKO loss to Thiago Alves in a fight he was up to that point leading nicely with some smart striking. His main disadvantages are that he is not a Viking and does not carry an axe. Both Mein and Meek have shown an ability to knock people out – Palhares have since been knocked out again in KSW in Poland, but still a nice get for Meek, Mein stopped Dan Miller. It is also proven they both can be stopped themselves.

Ring rust vs. Octagon jitters. Tonight Odin feasts. Meek by TKO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Mills is super aggressive and athletic, with good instincts, but I’m not sure if he’s much more than that? Reminds me a little of early career Travis Browne in a way, in that he’ll find a way to smoke people who are less athletic or committed by simply overwhelming them. So the question is if he can do what Brown did to Mein. I have general questions about Mein’s willingness and enjoyment levels, as well as any potential injuries, but he’s a whole different level of stand-up technician to Meek and is himself a really good athlete. Jordan Mein by TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Mein: Anton, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Meek: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Tim

Misha Cirkunov vs. Nikita Krylov

Mookie Alexander: Y’all know Krylov is the best fighter ever, but I do need to break character a little bit and go for Cirkunov. Krylov has a clear advantage on the feet, but Cirkunov is a strong-ass man who is really really good on the ground. The challenge for Misha will be to close the distance on Krylov and take him down (reactive shot?), but I think it’s a challenge he’ll solve, and just dominate Krylov on the mat. Misha Cirkunov by submission, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: Cirkunov is strong, loves making his opponent carry his weight and usually fights smart given his physical attributes. He done goofed when he signed on for this fight, though. Krylov is like the Macho Man Randy Savage of MMA, with a dash of Mayor Mike Haggar and the little Japanese rapping girl from Blade. Who are we really kidding here? Krylov’s style breaks backs like Ken Patera. Wu-Tang. Nikita Krylov (DA GAWD) by tear-inducing violence.

Phil Mackenzie: How fast is Cirkunov? I think that’s the question here. He was very, very slow when he first came to the UFC, but looked a good deal lighter on his feet the last time out. If he can’t close Nikki Thrillz down, he’s going to be standing on the end of kicks a lot, and his striking and grappling style does not inherently cover distance well. Conversely, if he can keep up with Krylov’s footspeed, he can bully him in the pocket with combination punches and just being a much stronger dude. This is a fantastic fight from a division which doesn’t throw them up all that often any more. Nikita Krylov by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Cirkunov: Mookie, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Krylov: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Eddie

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Drew Dober

Phil Mackenzie: Have enjoyed Dober’s resurgence, but if there’s something I consistently pick up on with Team Elevation it’s that they’re better at mixing it up in “pure” striking matches than you might expect, and worse at keeping it a pure striking match than you might expect. Essentially, even their strikers always end up actively grappling. In that case, OAM is just going to clinch and jump on Dober’s back and ride out a round or two. OAM hasn’t progressed as much as I’d like, so I’d actually like to see Dober win, but Olivier Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision.

Staff picking OAM: Ram, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Dober: Nick, Stephie, Eddie

Valerie Letourneau vs. Viviane Pereira

Victor Rodriguez: Brief primer on Pereira – she’s 5’0 tall and an absolute firecracker. She rushes in with volleys of punches and can actually hit pretty hard if she catches you with one of her winging hooks. Also, she likes her body lock takedowns, even if she has to muscle them to succeed. Unfortunately, that’s not going to work against better opponents. If you check Pereira’s record, there’s a handful of those wins that are over fighters that right now are either .500 or worse. Val hung tough for five rounds with Joanna Champion and busted her up pretty good in a losing effort. So yeah, Valerie Letourneau by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Letourneau’s last loss was a bit of a surprise to me. Am wondering if she lost her motivation a bit following the loss to Jedrzejczyk- she’s an enormous strawweight and I can’t feel like it’s a very fun weight cut. Pereira is super aggressive but technically limited, and unless we get a Noke-Moreno deal, Valerie Letourneau by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Letourneau: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim, Eddie
Staff picking Pereira:

Mitch Gagnon vs. Matthew Lopez

Phil Mackenzie: One of the main questions is if Lopez’ terrible gas tank against Yahya was due to an octagon jitters adrenaline dump, or whether it’s a persistent problem against UFC-level athletes. The other question is Gagnon- he’s a pretty old bantamweight who’s been out for a minute. He’s also a tank, however. Mitch Gagnon by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: Trevor Wittman sighting! Lopez by KO

Staff picking Gagnon: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Lopez: Eddie

John Makdessi vs. Lando Vannata

Mookie Alexander: Makdessi is looking less and less impressive in his wins and as Phil notes, he’s taken some punishment in his recent losses. I think Makdessi is the better technical striker, he’s got solid fundamentals, but he’s not powerful and Vannata is a better athlete who obviously has some good skills in his own right. Lando Vannata by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Lando’s success against Tony Ferguson may have been slightly overplayed, in that Ferguson has always struggled a bit with punching down at smaller “footspeed and angles” fighters (robbing Yves Edwards, losing to Johnson etc). Makdessi is a much more fundamentally put together fighter, less reliant on gimmicky sequences like oblique kick-spinning backfist. That being said, he’s a deeply average athlete who’s taken a ton of damage over the years. Should be fireworks but Lando Vannata by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Makdessi: Ram, Anton, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Vannata: Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Tim

Jason Saggo vs. Rustam Khabilov

Phil Mackenzie: Saggo’s really a lot better than I thought he was, and one of the better incarnations of the often-underwhelming kick-grappler archetype. That said, he’s not a great defensive wrestler and Khabilov is exceptionally powerful and good at neutralizing opponents without doing a whole lot. Likely a close, control-based win that does little to dig Khabilov out of the fringe-top-15, televised prelim rut he finds himself in. Rustam Khabilov by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Saggo:
Staff picking Khabilov: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim, Eddie

Zach Makovsky vs. Dustin Ortiz

Victor Rodriguez: Full disclosure, Makovsky used to train where I do. Under normal circumstances I’d recuse myself. Not today, though!! GO ZACH!! Zach Makovsky by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Dustin Ortiz has stagnated a bit in recent years, which is a shame. When he upset Scoggins and Borg he looked like he might be able to pull ahead of some of the other FLW prospects on sheer aggression and moxie. However, he still seems much the same fighter, while the others have been on varying upward trajectories. Volume boxing and lots of takedowns and not much else. Makovsky has a similar issue in that he just doesn’t have much in the way of dynamic offense, but he’s a cleaner striker and wrestler. Should be very close, full of really awesome scrambles, but Zach Makovsky by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Makovsky: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie , Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Ortiz: Tim

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday night’s UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis pay-per-view event in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

The staff predictions for UFC 206 are in, and only Eddie Mercado is going with Anthony Pettis to beat Max Holloway in the main event, even though Pettis missed weight. As for the co-main, Tim Bissell is backing Matt Brown over Donald Cerrone, but he’s on his own on that one. Yours truly (Mookie Alexander), Ram Gilboa, and Eddie Mercado have Cub Swanson putting a temporary halt to Doo Ho Choi’s hype train.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: A warm welcome to Ram Gilboa, who’d previously done guest spots on Bloody Elbow, including his feature interview with Georges St-Pierre.

Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis

Anton Tabuena: Say what you want about the legitimacy of the belt, but I will not complain about this bout being bumped up to 5 rounds. I am also salivating at the idea of the winner probably being a lock to go against Jose Aldo in yet another stand up affair. Anyway, both these guys are dynamic strikers, but I think Pettis has better kicks, while Holloway has better hands. Pettis looked pretty good in his featherweight debut. He also isn’t undersized in this division, and with this match up of strikers, any holes he may have shown in wrestling when he was at lightweight probably won’t be a factor here. That said, Pettis missed weight badly, so his performance will likely be hindered in the later rounds. Holloway is also arguably the most mobile and complete striker Pettis has faced, and probably holds the edge in power as well. To me, that makes Holloway the favorite. Pettis has a chance to make this interesting if he can control distance with his kicks, especially without the constant threat of a takedown. That’s easier said than done against the lengthy and talented Hawaiian of course, but I do believe that controlling pace and distance will be the key here. I was already picking Holloway by to win by decision before Pettis missed weight, and now I guess it’s more likely that he can get the finish in the latter rounds. Max Holloway by late TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Holloway’s the better striker (read: better boxer by a loooooong way), can actually make 145 without issue, and Pettis just doesn’t throw enough to trust him to win rounds in a five-round fight. His best path to victory is to take Holloway down or for Holloway to get caught by a Pettis submission off of his back. You also can’t discount the power Pettis puts in his kicks, but I’m going with the Hawaiian to put a hurtin’ on Showtime. Max Holloway by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I’m feeling Holloway here. He’s dynamic, and in a way that allows him to still get away with taking multiple risks per fight. His boxing is better, his range is better, he’s fast and strong, and he’s damn near unstoppable right now. Pettis is agile and has been working on his wrestling, but Max can push a pace he won’t be expecting and can make sure Pettis is never in a comfortable striking range. Waianae stand up. Max Holloway by TKO.

Ram Gilboa: After dropping 3 decisions at lightweight, I thought Pettis had a very good debut at feather against Oliveira. His kicks got their shock & awe back; his wrestling, still a plan B, seemed more efficient – and when it failed, the A-plan Jiu-Jitsu was dangerous with evidence. However, Holloway moves too much on his feet, punches too often and too strong, and won’t seek the ground like a shin-shocked Oliveira did. He’s also on his way going places. Pettis weighing in 3 pounds over just makes me more certain Holloway wins a good fight, that’ll favor him more and more as the rounds wear on. (Although I kind of want Pettis to win and have them figure the FW title out then) Max Holloway by decision.

Tim Bissell: I was feeling Pettis as a submission threat to ‘Blessed’ before the drama around making weight surfaced. That’s enough for me to regain my senses and side with Holloway, who may finish a ‘bad-weight-cut’ version of Pettis. Max Holloway by TKO (punches), round 2.

Fraser Coffeen: I’ve long felt Pettis is an inconsistent fighter who takes himself out of winnable fights too often, and this weight issue only furthers my thoughts there. What a mess this card turned out to be. Max Holloway, decision

Eddie Mercado: Pettis has more venom in his strikes and has a pretty stout chin. Plus I’ve seen more from Pettis in terms of ground game. For some reason I can’t shake the memory of Connor McGregor controlling Max Holloway on the ground. Anthony Pettis by decision

Staff picking Holloway: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Pettis: Eddie

Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown

Anton Tabuena: Both men will throw bombs until one falls, probably with a well timed body shot (again)… Who has a bigger chance to make that happen? Tough pick. Cerrone is faster and more technical, while Brown should be stronger and a bit ‘trickier’ in a sense that he doesn’t come with the standard Muay Thai approach. Cerrone has succumbed to good pressure fighters in the past, and against a welterweight in Brown, that could be trouble for him. The two trained together before, and since everyone knows what Cerrone will be bringing, I think being more familiar with each other benefits him more. I see this going either way, but I think if Cerrone avoids getting pressured early, he should be able to use that speed advantage and land a good amount of strikes. Donald Cerrone by TKO (body kick and punches).

Mookie Alexander: Cerrone doesn’t react kindly to well-placed body shots, but Matt Brown legitimately folds himself over when he gets hit to the body. Cowboy’s striking has looked better than ever through the guidance of Brandon Gibson, and while Cerrone by TKO is the popular pick, I see Cowboy hurting Brown and then jumping on his back and sinking in a rear-naked choke. Brown’s got a shot just on his toughness and Muay Thai skills alone, but Cerrone’s a better fighter by a considerable distance. Donald Cerrone by rear-naked choke, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Cerrone’s success at welterweight seems to have accompanied dropping his penchant for being a slow starter. Storming right out of the gate to set the pace is going to benefit him against Brown, and those body kicks will likely crumple the Immortal. This will be a hard-hitting Muay Thai battle of attrition, and Donald takes this by debilitating Brown midway through the first and continues to pick him apart until he finds the right opening to finish the fight.

Ram Gilboa: Hi kids! Do you like violence?

This fight is going to have some of the same effects on the audience of an Eminem song dropping in 1999 – eyes wide open and growing wider by the second, and lot of “holy” and “I can’t believe he just”, and you’re going to talk about it for a while.

They’re both tough, great, high-volume full range muay-thai strikers; although Cerrone is likely the more well-rounded MMA fighter, and is in a better place in his career (part of the reason being he’s not the one who met Demian Maia earlier this year). Besides the – inevitable? – Maia loss, Brown also just got crushed by Jake Ellenberger, putting him two straight in the red. While Cerrone’s last loss a year ago also isn’t a faded memory, it was in a title fight (against RDA), and he since went 3-0 in 2016 with 3 stoppages. I feel like number 4 is coming up. Donald Cerrone by submission, round 2.

Tim Bissell: I smell a late entry for round of the year coming up with both men swinging for the fences (and bonuses). Brown has come out on top of those of chaotic brawls before, and I think he can do it again here – out muscling Cerrone and targeting that Bud Light primed liver. Matt Brown by TKO (body punches), late round 1.

Staff picking Brown: Bissell
Staff picking Cerrone: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

Doo Ho Choi vs. Cub Swanson

Anton Tabuena: Choi looks like a guy Mookie’s age, but I still expect the Korean prospect to shine and get another highlight reel finish here. Doo Ho Choi by KO.

Mookie Alexander: Been picking chalk too much lately, so time to go for an upset here. I love Choi, he’s a terrific talent, but even a slightly past-his-prime Swanson is way way way better than anyone else he’s faced. Swanson is a crafty striker, dangerous on the counter, and very athletic. I do worry about his historically great chin, and chances are Choi can put him away if he lands a solid shot or two, but I’m going with the veteran to find a way to get Choi down and work his top game. Swanson’s not really a good wrestler and Choi has shown quality takedown defense, but I have a feeling Cub’s still got something left in the tank. Cub Swanson by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: This fight has the potential to be an absurd amount of fun. Swanson’s got great boxing skills and movement, and he’s also developed patience and the ability to hang back and play the counter game when needed. Unfortunately, he ends up getting reckless. That’s where he’s at his most vulnerable. Then again, he’s the more experienced of the two. On the other hand, Choi brings a lovely arsenal of confident volume punches in spurts, body kicks and lethal knees. We haven’t seen much of his ground game in the UFC so far, and he’s too content to eat a few shots to give a few, and Swanson can catch him and ruin him. All things considered, I feel Choi stylistically should win this. Smart money says Swanson, but I’m still going with Choi. Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Aw, Cub. Feel like his recent wins have been just on the edge. He had some serious scares from a rather faded Kawajiri and was well on his way to losing to Dias before landing a weird headkick. If he’s taking punches from someone as glacially slow as Kawajiri I can’t help but feel like Choi will catch him sometime early with something big. He’s historically been super tough to take out with strikes, but I just have a bad feeling. Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Choi: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Swanson: Ram, Mookie, Eddie

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Tim Kennedy

Anton Tabuena: Unless ring rust plays a major factor and his timing isn’t there, stylewise, this is really Tim Kennedy’s fight to lose. Tim Kennedy by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Gastelum is in a Johny Hendricks-esque situation where being a 5’9” middleweight is just not going to cut it at the highest level. Johny is staying put at 170 for at least another fight, whereas Gastelum has just bungled too many weight cuts for 170 to seem like his long-term home. The question mark here is Kennedy’s ring rust after being out for over 2 years, but I imagine Gastelum will win the striking exchanges but will not be able to have an answer for Kennedy’s wrestling and stifling top game. Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Gastelum is a tremendous wrestler and a better athlete than he’s given credit for, but no. Kennedy is a tremendous submission grappler that shut down Roger Gracie and punished him in an ugly fight that was only a joy to watch if you’re a grappling fan. Kennedy’s striking is better, he’s probably coming in bigger and his experience will come into play. Gastelum has the makings of a great fighter, but I don’t know if he’s ready for this. While I hope I’m wrong about that, Tim Kennedy by submission.

Ram Gilboa: Gastelum – is he a too-big welterweight? A full-size middleweight? Because on Saturday he is going up against one of the most solid high-level true middleweight contenders, who when last seen gave Yoel Romero a run for his money. (By the way, Romero is a southpaw like Gastelum).

At 25, Gastelum is still very young in MMA, and at the very least grappling-wise, apart from his very nice wrestling, he is years behind Kennedy. This fight would have Kennedy written all over it except for one thing: Gastelum fought in the Octagon five times since September 2014 when Kennedy last stepped in the cage – including a high-profile outing in UFC 200 in Gastelum’s last fight. His striking looked pretty good and improved then against Hendricks, and he always has that perilous southpaw kick. That said, Tim Kennedy by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Think the tone of this one will be set early. Gastelum was a quick welterweight and will likely be blindingly fast at middleweight, with the obvious caveat that he’s going to be dramatically outsized. Kennedy is somewhat of a looping puncher, so don’t be surprised if Gastelum starts out piecing him up with the one-two. The main question is what happens if/when they lock up. Magny was able to soundly outwrestle Gastelum, and despite his excellent scrambling ability Gastelum is going to have even less luck fighting off the top game of Tim Kennedy. The obvious caveat is how often Kennedy has been out. Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Gastelum: Bissell
Staff picking Kennedy: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

Jordan Mein vs. Emil Weber Meek

Anton Tabuena: Mein has been out a while, but he is still a really good and experienced fighter. Even on his last loss against Alves, he was winning handily and looked great until that perfectly placed liver kick ended things in an instant. I will also need to see more from the Palhares slayer at this level before I start picking him. Jordan Mein by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: I still want to believe in Jordan Mein, dammit! I’m worried though that he’s the Joe Stevenson type who will completely fade out of the sport at a young age because he’s had a billion pro fights and turned professional as a teenager. The last time we saw him, he was beating Thiago Alves until he wasn’t. As for Meek, he was last seen thrashing Rousimar Palhares, but it’s not like it’s particularly tough to knock Palhares out. Meek has a cool axe, but he wasn’t allowed to bring it on media day, and I don’t think it’s allowed in the Octagon. So on that note, Jordan Mein by unanimous decision.

Ram Gilboa: This will be Emil “Valhalla” Weber Meek first time inside the octagon – a ticket the 8-2-1 Norwegian got on account of that win against Palhares in Venator – after a fight slated for UFN 93 in Germany against a fellow debuter got cancelled. Jordan Mein is no debuter – a very experienced 27 year old, he was kickboxing at four, and grappling, did the MMA amateur circuit and has behind him 39 pro MMA fights (29-10) – Mein already had time to retire and this is his comeback fight. It has been almost 2 years since Mein’s last time out, a TKO loss to Thiago Alves in a fight he was up to that point leading nicely with some smart striking. His main disadvantages are that he is not a Viking and does not carry an axe. Both Mein and Meek have shown an ability to knock people out – Palhares have since been knocked out again in KSW in Poland, but still a nice get for Meek, Mein stopped Dan Miller. It is also proven they both can be stopped themselves.

Ring rust vs. Octagon jitters. Tonight Odin feasts. Meek by TKO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Mills is super aggressive and athletic, with good instincts, but I’m not sure if he’s much more than that? Reminds me a little of early career Travis Browne in a way, in that he’ll find a way to smoke people who are less athletic or committed by simply overwhelming them. So the question is if he can do what Brown did to Mein. I have general questions about Mein’s willingness and enjoyment levels, as well as any potential injuries, but he’s a whole different level of stand-up technician to Meek and is himself a really good athlete. Jordan Mein by TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Mein: Anton, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Meek: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Tim

Misha Cirkunov vs. Nikita Krylov

Mookie Alexander: Y’all know Krylov is the best fighter ever, but I do need to break character a little bit and go for Cirkunov. Krylov has a clear advantage on the feet, but Cirkunov is a strong-ass man who is really really good on the ground. The challenge for Misha will be to close the distance on Krylov and take him down (reactive shot?), but I think it’s a challenge he’ll solve, and just dominate Krylov on the mat. Misha Cirkunov by submission, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: Cirkunov is strong, loves making his opponent carry his weight and usually fights smart given his physical attributes. He done goofed when he signed on for this fight, though. Krylov is like the Macho Man Randy Savage of MMA, with a dash of Mayor Mike Haggar and the little Japanese rapping girl from Blade. Who are we really kidding here? Krylov’s style breaks backs like Ken Patera. Wu-Tang. Nikita Krylov (DA GAWD) by tear-inducing violence.

Phil Mackenzie: How fast is Cirkunov? I think that’s the question here. He was very, very slow when he first came to the UFC, but looked a good deal lighter on his feet the last time out. If he can’t close Nikki Thrillz down, he’s going to be standing on the end of kicks a lot, and his striking and grappling style does not inherently cover distance well. Conversely, if he can keep up with Krylov’s footspeed, he can bully him in the pocket with combination punches and just being a much stronger dude. This is a fantastic fight from a division which doesn’t throw them up all that often any more. Nikita Krylov by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Cirkunov: Mookie, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Krylov: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Eddie

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Drew Dober

Phil Mackenzie: Have enjoyed Dober’s resurgence, but if there’s something I consistently pick up on with Team Elevation it’s that they’re better at mixing it up in “pure” striking matches than you might expect, and worse at keeping it a pure striking match than you might expect. Essentially, even their strikers always end up actively grappling. In that case, OAM is just going to clinch and jump on Dober’s back and ride out a round or two. OAM hasn’t progressed as much as I’d like, so I’d actually like to see Dober win, but Olivier Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision.

Staff picking OAM: Ram, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Dober: Nick, Stephie, Eddie

Valerie Letourneau vs. Viviane Pereira

Victor Rodriguez: Brief primer on Pereira – she’s 5’0 tall and an absolute firecracker. She rushes in with volleys of punches and can actually hit pretty hard if she catches you with one of her winging hooks. Also, she likes her body lock takedowns, even if she has to muscle them to succeed. Unfortunately, that’s not going to work against better opponents. If you check Pereira’s record, there’s a handful of those wins that are over fighters that right now are either .500 or worse. Val hung tough for five rounds with Joanna Champion and busted her up pretty good in a losing effort. So yeah, Valerie Letourneau by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Letourneau’s last loss was a bit of a surprise to me. Am wondering if she lost her motivation a bit following the loss to Jedrzejczyk- she’s an enormous strawweight and I can’t feel like it’s a very fun weight cut. Pereira is super aggressive but technically limited, and unless we get a Noke-Moreno deal, Valerie Letourneau by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Letourneau: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim, Eddie
Staff picking Pereira:

Mitch Gagnon vs. Matthew Lopez

Phil Mackenzie: One of the main questions is if Lopez’ terrible gas tank against Yahya was due to an octagon jitters adrenaline dump, or whether it’s a persistent problem against UFC-level athletes. The other question is Gagnon- he’s a pretty old bantamweight who’s been out for a minute. He’s also a tank, however. Mitch Gagnon by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: Trevor Wittman sighting! Lopez by KO

Staff picking Gagnon: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Lopez: Eddie

John Makdessi vs. Lando Vannata

Mookie Alexander: Makdessi is looking less and less impressive in his wins and as Phil notes, he’s taken some punishment in his recent losses. I think Makdessi is the better technical striker, he’s got solid fundamentals, but he’s not powerful and Vannata is a better athlete who obviously has some good skills in his own right. Lando Vannata by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Lando’s success against Tony Ferguson may have been slightly overplayed, in that Ferguson has always struggled a bit with punching down at smaller “footspeed and angles” fighters (robbing Yves Edwards, losing to Johnson etc). Makdessi is a much more fundamentally put together fighter, less reliant on gimmicky sequences like oblique kick-spinning backfist. That being said, he’s a deeply average athlete who’s taken a ton of damage over the years. Should be fireworks but Lando Vannata by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Makdessi: Ram, Anton, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Vannata: Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Tim

Jason Saggo vs. Rustam Khabilov

Phil Mackenzie: Saggo’s really a lot better than I thought he was, and one of the better incarnations of the often-underwhelming kick-grappler archetype. That said, he’s not a great defensive wrestler and Khabilov is exceptionally powerful and good at neutralizing opponents without doing a whole lot. Likely a close, control-based win that does little to dig Khabilov out of the fringe-top-15, televised prelim rut he finds himself in. Rustam Khabilov by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Saggo:
Staff picking Khabilov: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim, Eddie

Zach Makovsky vs. Dustin Ortiz

Victor Rodriguez: Full disclosure, Makovsky used to train where I do. Under normal circumstances I’d recuse myself. Not today, though!! GO ZACH!! Zach Makovsky by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Dustin Ortiz has stagnated a bit in recent years, which is a shame. When he upset Scoggins and Borg he looked like he might be able to pull ahead of some of the other FLW prospects on sheer aggression and moxie. However, he still seems much the same fighter, while the others have been on varying upward trajectories. Volume boxing and lots of takedowns and not much else. Makovsky has a similar issue in that he just doesn’t have much in the way of dynamic offense, but he’s a cleaner striker and wrestler. Should be very close, full of really awesome scrambles, but Zach Makovsky by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Makovsky: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie , Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie
Staff picking Ortiz: Tim