The UFC is set to go out with a bang in 2016 as UFC 207’s Friday card features two title fights and plenty of other intriguing bouts that will impact the respective divisions’ title pictures.
The whole thing is obviously headlined by the return of “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey against women’s bantamweight title holder Amanda Nunes. Rousey has spent more than a year away from the Octagon since her shocking loss to Holly Holm and will be greeted back by one of the best finishers in the sport.
The women’s bantamweight title isn’t the only one on the line, though. The men’s version of the belt is also up for grabs as Dominick Cruz defends his strap against Cody Garbrandt.
Here’s a look at the complete lineup for the pay-per-view main card fights set to go down in Vegas along with the latest odds from OddsShark and a preview of the night’s biggest fights.
Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
The true test of a champion comes in defending the belt. Thus far, no one has been able to do that successfully in the women’s bantamweight division since Rousey dropped her strap to Holm in UFC 193.
In the main event, Nunes will try her hand at defending the belt against the very person who has done it before. It might just be the most difficult fight in the challenge, but it’s one that Nunes embraces.
“You know, Ronda Rousey is still the biggest name in this division, and I wanted to make a statement and for my next faceoff, for my next main event to be with someone big,” said Nunes, per Brian Martin of the Los Angeles Daily News. “And when Ronda Rousey comes back, it’s going to be huge. It’s going to happen, and this is the fight I asked for.”
This is an intriguing fight for several reasons, and one of those is whether Rousey still has the mystique that made her seem invincible before losing to Holm.
Just who will back down in the early going is an important factor, as both fighters are known for being quick starters. Five of Nunes’ six UFC wins have come in the first round, while Rousey has earned 11 of her 12 wins in the first frame.
That sets up an early collision course that could determine the fight. However, if both fighters weather the early storm, that’s bad news for Nunes.
When the Lioness has failed to put her opponent away in the first round, she’s had issues with cardio. She’s lost three of her last four fights that got out of the first round, and the win against Valentina Shevchenko saw her land single digit strikes in the third and final round.
If Rousey hasn’t learned to close the distance in other ways than simply running right at her opponent, she could get slept. However, with a year off to work on her skills and improve, a return of the Rousey who used to demolish opponents with her judo and submission skills seems more likely.
Look for Rousey to stifle Nunes’ early aggression and take care of business in the second round.
Rousey via second-round submission.
Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt
The evening’s first title fight is a classic example of power vs. technique, as Garbrandt’s explosiveness will be put up against the craftiness of Cruz in a bantamweight title fight.
Garbrandt’s rise to title-contender status in the UFC has been swift and violent. He made his UFC debut in January 2015 and has amassed five wins on his way to the title shot, including three in a row in the first round.
But a look at who he’s defeated shows he’s not won against anyone with the caliber of Cruz. Garbrandt’s most impressive win to date came against fellow rising star Thomas Almeida, but it pales in comparison to the victories Cruz can claim in his career.
Cruz has defeated a plethora of veteran fighters including Urijah Faber (twice), Demetrious Johnson (reigning flyweight champion) and T.J. Dillashaw (former UFC champion).
That isn’t to say that Cruz’s resume means he’ll beat Garbrandt. Cruz will have to be dethroned at some point, and it will be by a guy who doesn’t have the same list of accomplishments. It does, however, highlight the fact that this fight may simply be too early in Garbrandt’s career for him to take advantage.
The great equalizer will obviously be Garbrandt’s power, but as Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics notes, Cruz is notoriously difficult to hit:
Cruz knows his defense is the best aspect of his game in this fight, too. Given his experience in fighting multiple Team Alpha Male fighters in the past, he cited both factors as the reason why he will be victorious on Friday night, per MMAjunkie:
None of those guys have a clue what to do with me. So there’s nothing they can tell him. He’s going to figure that out after the first round, when he’s in there punching, he’s in there missing, he’s looking for that big punch he’s landed on everybody else, and he goes to land that punch and I’m gone, I’m a ghost, I’m not there.
Cruz is one of the most frustrating fighters in the UFC. His awkward style and movement have left many an opponent swinging at air, while Garbrandt often looks to land the big punch that’s going to change the fight.
At just 25 years old and 10 fights into his MMA career, Garbrandt will likely be in this spot again. But the constant movement of Cruz and a wealth of experience might be too much to overcome if the Team Alpha Male contender doesn’t land the big shot early in the fight.
Cruz via decision.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. John Lineker
The winner of the bantamweight bout between Dillashaw and John Lineker will have a close eye on the Garbrandt-Cruz matchup that succeeds it. It will likely tell them who they will be fighting next for the title.
Both have proved they are elite bantamweights by beating top fighters in the division. Dillashaw already took the current champion to the limit in a split-decision loss, while Lineker brings a six-fight win streak to the fight that includes a win over Jon Dodson.
In a lot of ways, this matchup mirrors the Garbrandt-Cruz bout. Dillashaw is the slick, technical striker and wrestler with title experience, whereas Lineker is the stalking power-puncher ready to turn out his opponent’s lights at a moment’s notice.
Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report, who is ultimately picking Dillashaw, even believes that the odds aren’t indicative of how close this matchup is:
The betting line undersells Lineker’s chances. Dillashaw is often there to be hit, and outside of John Dodson who knocked him out, nobody he has ever fought has hit him the way Lineker will. Either Dillashaw will have to dial back his offensive output to minimize the risk or take his chances in a quick-paced firefight with a heavy puncher.
Wyman’s observation highlights the crucial difference between Cruz and Dillashaw, though. Whereas Cruz is a defensive fighter who will do his damage in counterstrikes, Dillashaw is an offensively oriented fighter who is more likely to engage in exchanges.
That’s bad news against Lineker. The 26-year-old is ultra-aggressive with one of the best chins in the division. He will continue to stalk Dillashaw and walk through shots to land an onslaught of his own.
If Dillashaw fights with his usual aggression, it’s going to result in getting punched in the face by Lineker. That’s never a good thing, and Lineker’s power could rule the day in this matchup.
Lineker via second-round TKO.
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