Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight elites Nicco Montano and Valentina Shevchenko will collide this Saturday (Sept. 8, 2018) at UFC 228 inside American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.
Ever since the UFC announced the creation of the women’s Flyweight division, fight fans around the world declared Valentina Shevchenko the heir apparent. However, “Bullet” was too busy attempting — and nearly succeeding — to dethrone Amanda Nunes at 135 lbs. to shed any weight. As a result, the UFC created an entire season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) to declare a new champion. Montano emerged from relative obscurity to put together a string of quality performances and wins, capturing the crown.
Where we stand now is an interesting position. Despite Montano’s success, she’s still seen as a lamb being thrown to the wolves, an 8-1 underdog. She justifiably feels disrespected. Meanwhile, Shevchenko’s momentum continues rolling forward despite the fact that her lone Flyweight bout previous to this one was against a horribly unprepared foe.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each woman:
Nicco Montano
Record: 4-2
Key Wins: Roxanne Modaferri (TUF 26 Finale), Barb Honchak (TUF 26), Lauren Murphy (TUF 26)
Key Losses: Julia Avila (HD MMA 7)
Keys to Victory: Montano is a solid athlete who captured her title with a well-rounded approach to the sport. Montano can box well enough and has above-average takedowns; in her new division, that was enough to capture the crown.
Shevchenko is a different beast.
I tried to defend Montano a bit in the opening section, but this is a really rough match up for her. She’s something of a generalist facing a specialist. Usually, that means the generalist’s job is to attack the specialist wherever she is weak (i.e. wrestle a striker).
What should Montano’s gameplan be when her opponent is a specialist (kickboxing), but still far more skilled in wrestling and grappling?
I don’t know the answer. If there’s one exploitable habit of Shevchenko that I can point out, it’s her love of hip tosses. In the past, she’s given up her back in the attempt, so perhaps there’s a path to victory for Montano if she can move into the clinch and capitalize on a fail arm throw.
Crazy upsets can happen in mixed martial arts (MMA), and it only takes a short slip of the mind for a rear-naked choke to slip through.
Valentina Shevchenko
Record: 15-3
Key Wins: Holly Holm (UFC on FOX 20), Julianna Pena (UFC on FOX 23), Sarah Kaufman (UFC on FOX 17)
Key Losses: Amanda Nunes (UFC 215, UFC 196)
Keys to Victory: Shevchenko came to UFC as a fighter whose extensive background in other combat sports — which includes multiple Muay Thai championships — resulted in a dangerous fighter, but one still missing pieces of the MMA game. That’s no longer the case, as Shevchenko has shored up the holes in her game, most notably some awkwardness on the mat.
Shevchenko is deadly everywhere.
Shevchenko is the far better striker in this match up and should be able to keep that fight in the realm for as long as she desires. Nunes was the only opponent who could keep up with her in that area, and even then the Brazilian was forced to rely on her size advantage and takedown attempts to keep things close.
Given Shevchenko’s brutal offense from top control last time out, gaining top position wouldn’t be a bad idea. If the Russian striker can frustrate Montano at range, there’s a fair chance she’ll draw out a bad shot, one that can be reversed.
Bottom Line: It’s a huge fight for both women.
Montano is in a difficult spot. The biggest underdog in UFC championship history, Montano still has to legitimize herself as a UFC champion. To do so, however, she must figure out a way to defeat perhaps the most technical female fighter alive, one with decades more combat sports experience than her.
A win is legendary and record-breaking. Meanwhile, a loss puts Montano in Carla Esparza’s position after she lost to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a defeat that took multiple years from which to recover.
As for Shevchenko, she’s expected to win rather easily. Given her skill set and accomplishments, it’s not hard to understand the reason(s). However, it’s worth-noting that the 30-year-old absolutely has to win this fight. Accolades don’t win belts, performances do, and Shevchenko has to prove herself far better than the current champion on Saturday night if she’s to live up to her potential.
At UFC 228, Nicco Montano will attempt to defend her title opposite Valentina Shevchenko. Which woman will leave with the strap?