Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 241 tonight in Anaheim.
The win probabilities for UFC 241’s three qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Diaz-Pettis and Romero-Costa, see Tuesday’s piece.
Nate Diaz (50.2%) over Anthony Pettis
Paulo Costa (50.1%) over Yoel Romero
Cory Sandhagen (60.2%) over Raphael Assuncao
The Diaz-Pettis and Costa-Romero matchups came out extremely close. Since random numbers are involved in the win probability estimations, each fighter was predicted the winner at some point using different seed values. The consensus edged ever so slightly to Diaz and Costa.
Just for fun, had they been coded has light heavyweights Daniel Cormier would’ve come in at 66.8% to take out Stipe Miocic a second time.
Current Bankroll: $10,427.10
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,824.47
The fight computer has no bets as of this writing (10:35am PT). Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.