UFC Fight Night 22 happens tonight, September 15th in Austin, Texas. The main event features former Middleweight number 1 contender Nate “The Great” Marquardt facing off against the physically imposing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Rousimar Palhares. The main card also features UFC sophmore Charles Oliveria versus former TUF winner Efrain Escudero and another TUF winner Ross Pearson taking on Cole Miller.
In my opinion, I don’t see many great value bets on this card. However, there is still money to be made for sharp bettors and keen researchers. As usual, myself and my friend Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will give our best bets for the upcoming event. I recommend checking out the latest UFC Fight Night 22 odds in addition to the UFC Fight Night 22 Pros’ Picks before placing any wagers. For you novice bettors out there, make sure to peruse MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Betting Guide before throwing your money down.
Ross Pearson – Mike Hammersmith (-260 on SportsBook)
TUF champions have a habit of transforming into real killers once they get the funding and recognition to excel in this sport, and Pearson is certainly on that track. Armed with an iron jaw, murderous inside boxing combinations, and a gas tank for days, it’ll take a very specific opponent to put a halt on his ascent in the division. Cole Miller, while a decent fighter in his own right, comes into this bout with possibly the worst skill-set one can have for dealing with Pearson, and may be the biggest dog on this card. Miller suffers from a suspect chin, a lack of real power in his strikes, and insufficient wrestling to get this fight on the mat, making for either a long night, or an abrupt end to this bout.
Rich Attonito – Mike Hammersmith +155 on SportBet)
An interesting fight featuring a TUF 11 fighter who was sidelined with injury, taking on a mid-level contender looking to move up. Attonito had a successful, although odd bout with Kyacey Uscola on TUF where he won via DQ, yet broke his hand and was forced out of the competition. Under the circumstances, he was given a chance to work his way into the UFC ranks, and did so in impressive fashion against no one’s favorite cast member Jamie Yager with a come-from-behind TKO victory. Rafael Natal, on the other hand, has worked his way through the regional circuits of Brazil and America, coming to the public eye on the Moosin PPV where he soundly defeated UFC veteran Travis Lutter with a harsh KO victory.
Generally when dealing with TUF fighters, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt in their training, as they tend to flourish once given a few sponsors and the opportunity for top-level training. With that in mind, this is a real toss-up fight, as both men are defensively weak standing, while having KO power, meaning this could end at any time. Surprisingly, Attonito has come in as a huge underdog in this fight at +155 and makes for the best dog bet on the card, in my opinion.
Efrain Escudero loses a fight against Evan Dunham, who is looking more and more like a legitimate Lightweight title contender. Charles Oliveira wins a fight against a relatively unaccomplished Darren Elkins. Because of these two results, the line on this fight is far closer than it should be. Welcome to the world of MMA betting, a world where being able to identify the difference between losses against good competition and wins against poor competition can make you a good amount of money.
This is what Charles Oliveria is: one hell of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player and a very hot prospect. Here is what Charles Oliveira isn’t: a decent striker, a quality wrestler, or a fighter who has faced quality competition. Efrain Escudero has already established himself in the biggest MMA promotion in the world with wins over Dan Lauzon and Cole Miller. Escudero has also played the role of “prospect derailer” in his win at the TUF 8 finale against over-hyped Phillipe Nover.
Oliveira certainly has the chops to hand Escudero his second straight submission loss, however he is going to have put a very dangerous Escudero in that position first. Escudero has better striking, better wrestling, and has an aggressive pace and ferocity that will be difficult for such an inexperienced fighter to deal with. Escudero was beating Dunham up until he got caught, and I expect a similar fight with a different result. Escudero controls all three rounds en route to an impressive unanimous decision victory.
Anthony Waldburger – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Bodog)
From where I sit, Anthony Waldburger and David Mitchell have many similarities. Waldburger has 10 submission wins, Mitchell has 9 submission wins. Waldburger has experience with serious competition like Pat Healy, Ricardo Funch, Pete Spratt, Josh Neer, and Brian Foster. Mitchell has fought tough mixed martial artists like Tim McKenzie, Poppies Martinez, and War Machine. Waldburger’s biggest weakness has been his chin, having 4 knockout losses. However, Mitchell has no KO wins on his record.
In a fight like this, you have to look at the odds. Mitchell is inexplicably a moderate favorite, while Waldburger is a +170 ‘dog. A bet on Waldburger is simple betting mathematics: he wins this fight about 50% of the time while the sports books are giving him a 37% chance. Taking advantage on edges like this can be more important that really thinking Waldburger will win more than he loses.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Marquardt/TKO/3
Escudero/UD
Tibau/SD
Pearson/TKO/2
Edwards/KO/1
Hamman/UD
Drwal/TKO/2
Natal/SUB/2
Waldburger/SUB/1
Foster/TKO/3
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Escudero 1 u. at -160 on Bodog
Waldburger – 1 u. at +170 on Sportsbook
Drwal – 1 u. at -170 on BetUS