To take the next step toward superstardom, No. 7-ranked strawweight Paige “12 Gauge” VanZant must defeat No. 3-ranked Rose “Thug” Namajunas in Las Vegas on Thursday at UFC Fight Night 80. The bout will be the main event in the first of three UFC events scheduled in Sin City from Thursday through Saturday.
Thursday’s card will take place at The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan and will be broadcast exclusively via live stream on UFC Fight Pass.
At the same venue on Friday, the finale of The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber will take place. The dynamite featherweight scrap between Frankie Edgar and Chad Mendes is the main event.
Then on Saturday, perhaps the most anticipated card in the promotion’s history will take center stage at the MGM Grand. Two world titles will be on the line as UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo will defend his belt against interim titleholder Conor McGregor.
If that weren’t enough, UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman puts his title on the line against Luke Rockhold.
The first of the three cards features several young, promising up-and-coming stars. VanZant is just 21 years old with a 6-1 professional record. She’s undefeated in three UFC bouts.
Namajunas is just 23. While she has a modest 3-2 professional record and a 1-2 mark in the UFC, Namajunas is a respected submissions grappler who should be VanZant‘s first true test.
Looking like a fighter ready for combat, Namajunas appears in this UFC Europe tweet, sporting her new action-heroine look and showing love to the Lithuanian flag:
Also on the card is former Ultimate Fighter winner Michael “Maverick” Chiesa (12-2), who turned 28 on Monday. He’ll take on the grizzled veteran and No. 14-ranked lightweight Jim Miller (25-6, 1 NC) in the co-main event.
Nineteen-year-old lightweight sensation Sage Northcutt (6-0) will make his second appearance in the UFC as he takes on Cody Pfister (12-4-1).
Also, undefeated 27-year-old middleweight Elias Theodorou (11-0) will get a stiff test from Thiago Santos (11-3). A win could push Theodorou into the Top 15—or close. You can view all of the fighter rankings at UFC.com.
Let’s take a look at all of the scheduled bouts, viewing information and predictions.
Santos Will Shock Theodorou
There are few middleweights who are as strong as Theodorou, but he has a tough matchup in Santos.
The Brazilian is a dynamic and underrated striker who is capable of dynamic finishes. His last two first-round wins over Andy Enz and Steve Bosse are proof.
Theodorou likes to put pressure on opponents by constantly coming forward. While he displays excellent cardio, his striking is inconsistent. At times, he throws beautiful high kicks. Other times, he looks heavier on his feet and less graceful.
Santos is the type of athlete who can make him pay for his lack of sharpness. If you haven’t seen Santos fight, picture a larger Edson Barboza. If this fight goes the distance, chances are Theodorou will have worn Santos down and spent a hunk of time in top control.
However, that’s not the way this one will go down. In what will likely amount to one of the more shocking results of the night, Santos is the pick by second-round TKO.
His speed and power will catch Theodorou and derail his rise up the middleweight ladder.
Northcutt Will Continue His Rise
He may look like Mark-Paul Gosselaar from Saved by the Bell, but Sage Northcutt‘s opponents are often the ones wishing they could be rescued. All six of Northcutt‘s wins have come by finish, with four coming by way of KO/TKO.
That includes his explosive UFC debut against Francisco Trevino at UFC 192 in October.
Expect another dominant performance from the impressive teenager. Pfister is terribly slow on his feet, and his striking will be leagues behind Northcutt‘s when it comes to speed and explosiveness.
By the midway point of the first round, Northcutt will have had his way with Pfister en route to a first-round stoppage.
Chiesa‘s Improved Striking Will Lead to Victory
Back in July 2013, Chiesa dropped Jorge Masvidal in a bout at UFC on Fox 8. Chiesa lost the fight via submission, but that moment when his striking upstaged his celebrated grappling game was a turning point.
Chiesa talked about that and his overall improved striking in an interview with MMAFightingonSBN. As you can see, Namajunas isn’t the only one on the card who has taken a trip to the barber:
The stats support Chiesa‘s claim. Per FightMetric.com, he is 3-1 since the loss to Masvidal, and he’s landed more strikes than his opponents in all but one of those four fights.
In the interview above, Chiesa says his fight with Miller “will come down to stand-up.” He’s right. Both men are excellent on the ground and probably won’t find much of an advantage there.
On the feet, Chiesa‘s five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage will be key. The southpaw (6’1″, 75″ reach) should be able to establish his jab and find a home for some left hands. That’s the combination that put Masvidal down.
Chiesa won’t stop Miller, but he will win by unanimous decision.
VanZant Is Too Skilled for Namajunas
Namajunas isn’t coming to the arena to be a footnote in VanZant‘s rise up the UFC’s popularity and fighter rankings, but she won’t have enough to stop 12 Gauge. Both women are battlers who have shown the ability to gut out tough victories.
That said, Namajunas is primarily a grappler who doesn’t figure to be able get the best of VanZant during stand-up exchanges. Per FightMetric.com, VanZant has landed 5.16 strikes per minute compared to just 2.88 for Namajunas.
The former has also been the more accurate striker with a connect rate of 60 percent compared to 39 for Namajunas. Also, Namajunas‘ defense has been spottier. She has absorbed 51 percent of the strikes thrown at her, while VanZant has only eaten 39 percent.
One might perceive Namajunas to have an advantage on the ground, but the numbers don’t back that up entirely. She does have three submission wins compared to two for VanZant, but the latter’s takedown defense has been far better at 61 percent to 28 for Namajunas.
Obviously, the opponents in these fights play a role in the stats, but there’s enough of an advantage in the numbers to assume VanZant has a definitive edge in striking and that she’s at least comparable on the ground.
Based on that, VanZant should win a clear decision, but don’t rule out a stoppage win by TKO or submission in the third or fourth round.
Statistics for entire fight card can be found at FightMetric.com.
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