I guess it doesn’t matter how we got here, so long as we got here.
Now that UFC 196 has been stripped for repairs, the leftover parts will be repurposed for an impromptu fight card on FOX Sports 1, courtesy of this Saturday night’s (Feb. 6, 2016) UFC Fight Night 82: “Hendricks vs. Thompson” event inside MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Ahem, Stinky Wizzleteats, if you would please…
Headlining this weekend’s big shebang is the welterweight contender fight pitting ex-division kingpin Johny Hendricks opposite kickboxing phenom Stephen Thompson. Considering how much “Bigg Rigg” has been popping off at the mouth about how great his new body is — sans deer meat — he has a lot to live up to.
In the heavyweight co-main event, Roy Nelson and Jared Rosholt bang it out for a spot in the 265-pound title chase. Well, not really, but it will be interesting to see if “Big Country” can be defined by something other than his big right hand, which won’t do him any good if “Big Show” dumps him on his head ad nauseam.
If you want to see what’s doing on the UFC Fight Night 82 “Prelims,” you’ll have to ask somebody who gives a damn. Fortunately, we happen to employ such a person and his name is Patrick Stumberg. Read his informed opinions here and here.
If you don’t hate him by the time you’re finished, see what his odds and “best bets” look like here.
Now then, let’s talk about the UFC “Vegas” main card, which also features a light heavyweight pairing between Ovince Saint Preux and former Strikeforce smasher Rafael Cavalcante. In addition, Joseph Benavidez returns to action in a “Fun Size” scrap against Zach Makovsky.
Let’s get picking!
170 lbs.: Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks (17-3) vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (11-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: I’m not sure what happened to Johny Hendricks, but I miss the bearded brawler who stuffed his face with wild hog during training camp, then showed up to score highlight-reel knockouts over guys like Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann.
Sigh … good times.
Recently, “Bigg Rigg” has been defined by his inability to make weight without incident, as well as his wrestle-and-mortar style of offense. He gets tired, falls back on his wrestling, and grinds his opponents into little pieces. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
Either way, it’s frightfully boring.
Hendricks insists he (finally) has his weight under control and feels better than ever, even going so far as to promise a finish. That could be a pretty tall order against a wily striker like Stephen Thompson, but it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
That said, there is no way I can pick “Wonderboy.”
Thompson is a fantastic striker and that’s going to be how he wins most of his fights. But I can’t imagine a gladiator like Hendricks, who has yet to be finished in 20 professional fights — and went 10 rounds with a savage like Robbie Lawler — is going to get caught with something flashy.
It also hurts that Thompson hasn’t been fighting anyone in the top five. “Bigg Rigg” has been mixing it up with the likes of the aforementioned “Ruthless,” as well as Georges St. Pierre and Matt Brown. And it should be noted that “Immortal” was able to shut down the kickboxing import with the same exact style that earned Hendricks a title.
As for the cardio, both fighters accepted the main event slot on short notice, so I’m not sure either combatant will hold an distinct advantage. Even so, Hendricks has been five rounds three times in his career — compared to zero for his opponent — so muscle memory and a drama-free weight cut could be the deciding factor.
Expect Thompson to look fancy early, complete with “oohs” and “ahhs” from the stands, but once Hendricks settles in, it’s going to be a grindhouse film.
Final prediction: Hendricks def. Thompson via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Roy “Big Country” Nelson (20-12) vs. Jared “Big Show” Rosholt (14-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: I think in order to accurately predict this fight, we must first determine why Roy Nelson is a dreadful 1-5 since his canceled Cheick at UFC 159 — a span in which his only win came over the mummified remains of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
There’s a chance he’s still fighting like it’s the finals of International Fight League (IFL) back in 2008, when a heavy hand and iron chin were enough to get him to the promised land. Mixed martial arts (MMA) has evolved dramatically since then … perhaps he hasn’t?
The other possibility is that he’s just not that good, which I have a hard time accepting when you consider his ground prowess and explosive mitts. It shouldn’t be so easy to stymie a fighter with over 30 fights, but when you shut down the right hand, the rest shuts down with it.
That — along with his equally baffling fight I.Q. — is going to be exploited by Jared Rosholt, who enters this contest 10 years the junior of his “Sin City” opponent. “Big Show” is the winningest heavyweight wrestler in the history of Oklahoma State, so expect him to follow the blueprint laid by Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic.
I won’t overlook the fact that Rosholt has been felled twice in his career by way of flying fist and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a Nelson uppercut counter a takedown — with disastrous results for the Texan. He knows it, we know it, Nelson knows it … there are no secrets in this fight.
Honestly, it’s hard to pick against a fighter as likable as Nelson, but I haven’t seen anything over the past couple of years that convinces me he’s fighting to win. All I see at this stage is an aging slugger who can no longer catch up to the fastball.
Final prediction: Rosholt def. Nelson via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Ovince “OSP” Saint Preux (18-7) vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (12-6)
Nostradumbass predicts: Not long before Rafael Cavalcante made his Strikeforce debut in mid-2009, there was a general consensus among media members that “Feijao” was the future of the light heavyweight division. He came from a great camp and had dynamite in his hands.
Then Mike Kyle went and spoiled the party.
Since then, it’s been a bumpy ride for the Brazilian, who may have wasted his potential. Now 35, Cavalcante — who has been known to sabotage himself with laziness and poor judgment — is coming off back-to-back losses to Ryan Bader and Patrick Cummins.
One more and it’s Splitsville.
Ovince Saint Preux, 32, is no spring chicken himself, and always seems to falter on the precipice of greatness. But unlike his UFC “Vegas” counterpart, “OSP” doesn’t show up only when it’s convenient, continually working to better himself in between fights.
He may not pack the same punch, but he is the superior athlete.
I also like that Saint Preux is deadly on the ground, something that may get lost in the “Fight Night” discussion. That’s what happens when you also knock people out, like the time he stunned the Brazilian faithful by planishing Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
I don’t expect him to go punch-for-punch with “Feijao.”
Instead, plan on his brains — not his brawn — to prevail. Saint Preux is going to stay out of striking range and work the takedowns, eventually tiring out the Brazilian and finishing him with a slick choke in the second half of the fight.
Final prediction: Saint Preux def. Cavalcante via submission
125 lbs.: Joseph “Joe Jitsu” Benavidez (23-4) vs. Zach “Fun Size” Makovsky (19-6)
Nostradumbass predicts: There isn’t much to dissect here. Joseph Benavidez is (still) the second best flyweight on the planet and unfortunately, has that Urijah Faber-thing going on where he loses to the champion, but wipes the floor with everyone else.
I don’t expect anything different against Zach Makovsky.
“Fun Size” is a talented fighter with above-average skills in most departments. That being said, key losses to Jussier da Silva and John Dodson were a firm reminder that he is not elite. In addition, Makovsky has not finished a fight in over five years.
Trying to beat “Joe Jitsu” on points is a fool’s errand.
Benavidez has fought — and defeated — much better competition. And he’s done it at bantamweight, as well as flyweight. With only one win by way of knockout/technical knockout, I can’t even argue “puncher’s chance” for the underdog, who will be outclassed from bell-to-bell.
Easiest pick of the night.
Final prediction: Benavidez def. Makovsky via unanimous decision
There you have it.
You’ve heard from me, now let’s hear from you. Who gets it done on fight night?