No. 13-ranked Derek Brunson (14-3) will take on No. 15-ranked Roan Carneiro (20-9) this Sunday at UFC Fight Night 83. On the surface, this top-15 encounter won’t have any immediate impact on the top-heavy division. However, a closer look shows that should Brunson walk away the victor this weekend, he is in a prime spot in the division as 2016 draws on.
As I noted in the State of the Middleweight Division article, the group of 185-pound fighters is aging. The windows for the Vitor Belfort’s and Ronaldo Jacare’s and Anderson Silva’s are rapidly closing, and there can only be so many rematches between Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold. Eventually, the UFC will need a fresh face toward the top.
Brunson could be that man.
Since coming to the UFC, he is 5-1, with wins over Chris Leben, Lorenz Larkin and Ed Herman. He’s had a quality slate of opponents. His lone loss? To former top contender Yoel Romero in a closely contested battle until Romero finished the fight late in the third.
Often forgot in that fight against the Olympic wrestling standout is that Brunson scored three takedowns. The American has shown the ability to compete with the elite.
The focus of the middleweight division is on Rockhold’s rematch with Weidman, and his feud with Vitor Belfort. It is not on who is coming up. Brunson is overshadowed by those with name value, but who are quickly coming to the end of their line.
Brunson has quietly won three straight, and he finished his last two opponents by TKO. Brunson is also one of the more funny and engaging athletes on social media. He should be everything the UFC is looking for in a contender.
The other possible contenders who are under 35 are Robert Whittaker, Gegard Mousasi and Uriah Hall. That’s it. Those are the other fighters lurking on the outside waiting for the old guard to step aside. Brunson is every bit the equal, if not better, than his counterparts. Looking long-term at the division, he is in a great spot to be a consistent presence at 185-pounds for the next four to five years as long as he stays healthy.
The old lions of the division cloud the perception of who comes next. The focus is on today and not tomorrow. Brunson is that tomorrow.
Brunson has been flying under the radar while putting together a solid UFC record. It has been a double-edged sword. Brunson hasn’t gotten the recognition he deserves, but he has also been given time to develop his craft without any of the pressure. Now is the time for him to step into that spotlight and make himself a known commodity.
A Brunson victory on Sunday may be the most important result the company can have in Pittsburgh. It will give the UFC another top-end middleweight contender’s bout in late 2016, and he is a marketable opponent for whomever the champion may be in 2017.
He is entering his prime as an athlete at the right time. The upper echelon are on the downside of their career, and Brunson can slide up to fill their roles as they fade away.
Defeating Carneiro alone won’t put Brunson on a rocket ship toward the top, but it will move him into position for a big-time clash against a true contender later this year. It sets him up, with wins, to be a title contender as we move into 2017. He may be the UFC’s best-kept secret.
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