Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick card in Lincoln, Nebraska.
The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for Saturday’s UFC Lincoln card, and the consensus opinion is that Justin Gaethje will get the win against James Vick in the main event. Only Stephie Haynes and Tim Bissell are going with Vick for the upset. Opinion is more evenly split for the co-main event between Michael Johnson and Andre Fili.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Justin Gaethje vs. James Vick
Mookie Alexander: This is a fight where Vick either wins early or fades and Gaethje breaks him down for the knockout. I won’t believe Gaethje is going to change his style until I see it, so I’m working with that. Gaethje’s losses are, in fairness, against guys who are just as good at winning brutal wars as he is. Vick hasn’t really been put through that rigor before, and I believe that he’ll have to hurt Gaethje early and put him away or else it’ll look like the Michael Johnson fight. Keep in mind that Poirier and Alvarez both didn’t badly rock Gaethje until the round in which they both finished him. Vick can absolutely do what Johnson failed to do — uppercut from far out rocks Gaethje and he latches on a guillotine, for example — but we haven’t really seen Vick respond consistently well to pressure, and Beneil Dariush was able to largely dominate him and knock him out despite being a much less technical striker than Justin. Good test to see where both men are in their respective careers, but the pick is Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: I really do worry about Gaethje here. His dependence on walking forward into the pocket, as well as Vick’s improved defensive footwork and increasingly clean range boxing have me very easily seeing Gaethje walking into something early and getting hurt. However, when Vick can’t find early success, he tends to fade out of fights a bit, and if he doesn’t KO Gaethje early, I think Gaethje’s consistent pressure is much more likely to wear on Vick than it is to get Gaethje taken out late. I’ll bet on Gaethje’s chin to carry him once again, but not nearly as confidently as I used to bet on it. Justin Gaethje via TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Gaethje: Phil, Nick, Zane, Harry, Dayne, Mookie, Tim
Staff picking Vick: Bissell, Stephie
Michael Johnson vs. Andre Fili
Mookie Alexander: Oh awesome. Melvin Guillard 2.0 against the notoriously inconsistent Fili, whose win-loss-win-loss pattern finally got broken with a highly debatable split decision win over Dennis Bermudez. Can you believe Johnson is less than two years removed from quickly wiping out Dustin Poirier without much difficulty? So weird. Somehow I trust Fili more at this stage to put together a complete performance without crumbling as easily as Johnson does. Michael is the more potent offensive fighter, but when things go south on him they really go south. Andre Fili by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: What a strange fight. Johnson is the better athlete and more powerful hitter, but radiates insecurity. Fili isn’t exactly a picture of consistency himself, but he holds himself together better, and rangy wrestle-boxer with good footwork (Jury, Castillo) has always been a style which has troubled Johnson, as he becomes unsure of when to crash in behind his right hook -> overhand combination. Andre Fili by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I feel like the question here is all about just how much I believe in Fili’s wrestling game, and whether it’s enough to put Johnson into the kind of panics that make his game fly apart at the edges. And honestly, I’m just not feeling it. Fili’s never been the kind of pressure fighter that has classically broken Johnson. And while he’s become a much better wrestler, he’s not the kind of dominating control fighter that makes me feel like he’ll just be able to grind Johnson into mistakes. Otherwise, Johnson is way way faster. If this is going to be a give & take striking battle standing, I’m going to bet on Johnson’s speed to consistently win out for him. Michael Johnson via KO, round 2.
Staff picking Johnson: Nick, Zane, Harry, Stephie
Staff picking Fili: Bissell, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Tim
Cortney Casey vs. Angela Hill
Mookie Alexander: I want Cortney Casey to succeed. She’s better than her record suggests… but she makes life so damn hard for herself with her poor in-fight strategy and brutally bad takedown defense. Hill isn’t one to be testing her wrestling, so that’s the good news. Bad news is I think Hill’s the better striker and she’s the faster fighter to begin with. Angela Hill by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Casey is footslow and prone to bad decisions, but tough and well-conditioned enough to ride out the consequences most of the time. Hill is flighty and can rarely keep the pace dictated by her own style, but this seems like a decent style matchup for her: her wonky punching form won’t matter quite as much against Casey’s bolt-upright approach, and she should be able to angle away and leg kick as Casey plods after her. Angela Hill by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: After her fight with Jessica Aguilar, I really thought Casey might be turning a corner. Then she put on two rote striking performances where she let beatable opponents figure her out early and out-work her all the rest of the way through the fight. Casey short arms her punches, plods with her footwork, and still has no wrestling or kicking games to speak of. HIll has trouble keeping to the tempo she sets, but she’s much more consistently crafty and lighter on her feet, with more diversity in her skills. Angela Hill by decision.
Staff picking Casey: Nick, Harry, Dayne, Tim
Staff picking Hill: Bissell, Phil, Zane, Mookie, Stephie
Jake Ellenberger vs. Bryan Barberena
Mookie Alexander: I’d love for Ellenberger to win… but it’s probably not happening. You’ve seen his recent fights. Bryan Barberena by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie:
Bryan Barberena by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Barberena tends to start slow, so I’ll say round 2. Bryan Barberena via TKO round 2.
Staff picking Ellenberger: Harry, Tim
Staff picking Barberena: Bissell, Phil, Nick, Zane, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
John Moraga vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Mookie Alexander: I love the hell out of Deiveson Figueiredo and his mish-mashed game of randomness. In theory this is not the type of fighter Moraga loses to, and therefore I shouldn’t pick Figueiredo, but there’s something about flyweight Lamas’ style that makes me think he can just catch Moraga out of nowhere and get the finish. If not, Moraga will wrestle him into dust and win a clear-cut decision. I’m going for the Brazilian, though. Deiveson Figueiredo by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Deiveson Figueiredo is an odd duck. He’s one of those athletic, multifaceted talents where it’s difficult to say what he’s actually good at, yet different parts of his game surface at different times and generally look pretty good. Moraga is undergoing something of a resurgence: he’s still never really lost to anyone who isn’t very good, and is the definition of a “take what you can give him” opportunist, so you can see Figueiredo’s love for the guillotine or sloppy top position coming back to bite him. However, there’s an intangible something about Figueiredo which is tilting me towards him: the way he comes out with new skills, the way he rarely gets badly hurt, they feel like subtle indicators of a quite special talent. Deiveson Figueiredo by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Figueiredo looked great last time out, but I can’t get the image of him struggling mightily with Jarred Brooks just before that. His low output power striking style is an especially odd fit for flyweights, most of whom are extremely light on their feet and evasive. Moraga isn’t the division’s best athlete, but he’s rarely been beat by someone who just wanted to put a grind on him. I get the feeling Moraga’s going to offer just a little too much volume standing, and a little too much scrambling on the ground. But if Figueredo can scare him off early and hit takedowns that all may change. John Moraga via decision.
Staff picking Moraga: Bissell, Zane, Dayne, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Stephie
Staff picking Figueiredo: Phil, Nick
Eryk Anders vs. Tim Williams
Mookie Alexander: Williams is the inferior athlete by some distance, and while Anders looked a little wild at times against Lyoto Machida, he’s still powerful enough and good enough against lower-level competition to just spark his opponents out. Eryk Anders by KO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Large Lanky Lauzon is being used as a stepping stone for prospects. His main hope is pulling a Spicely-Santos, but Anders is already showing enough maturity and caution that that seems unlikely. Eryk Anders by KO, round 2
Zane Simon: There’s a very very real possibility that Williams just comes out, hits a takedown and smothers Anders into a submission. I’m not at all convinced that the former linebacker is really the potential talent that he’s been hyped to be, outside his obvious athletic gifts. However, Williams has always been an overly willing striker, with a push-forward, low-output power style. And he’s so amazingly stiff when he is standing that his pressure is perfectly set up to lead him into a power left hand from Anders. Eryk Anders via KO, round 1.
Staff picking Anders: Bissell, Phil, Nick, Zane, Dayne, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Stephie
Staff picking Williams:
James Krause vs. Warlley Alves
Mookie Alexander: Alves’ grappling and strength might be too much for Krause, who has real good technical striking but doesn’t really have the power or pressure to trouble Warlley in any meaningful way, especially not at 170. Warlley Alves by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I’m normally pretty good with seeing fighters move up, but I’m not sure about Krause. He has a chronic lack of power which he’s hidden behind his long frame, sneakiness and pace. That frame won’t be the help it was down at lightweight, and watching him get outmuscled and submitted by Jesse Taylor does not give me a great deal of faith against a physical specimen like Alves. Warlley Alves by submission, round 1.
Zane Simon: Krause has always been a crafty, relaxed fighter in the cage, who wins by finding the right tool for whatever fight he’s in and depending on it. However, his laid back, sparring demeanor tends to really bite him against opponents who are tough enough to walk him down and stay on him. Alves is powerful, dynamic, has a great chin, and is a fantastic grappler. He may just jump on a submission when Krause shoots in on him, but I won’t be surprised if he just pot shots and cage grinds Krause for three rounds. Warlley Alves by decision.
Staff picking Krause: Dayne
Staff picking Alves: Bissell, Phil, Nick, Zane, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Stephie
Iuri Alcantara vs. Cory Sandhagen
Phil Mackenzie: Alcantara showed that he’s still got some of that crazy round 1 finishing ability last time out, but overall there’s been a marked slowdown in his once-stellar physicality. Sandhagen looks like quite a special prospect when he dismantled Austin Arnett. If anything has really improved in recent years for Alcantara it’s his offensive wrestling, but it’s still not something I trust him to go to. Cory Sandhagen by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: Beating Austin Arnett, even looking very good against him, just doesn’t tell me anything about what kind of talent Sandhagen is. He’s clearly the more technical striker here, but I have the feeling that he’s not nearly the athlete that Alcantara is either. And if that’s the case, I have a sneaking suspicion that Sandhagen is going to try and get overly tricky early in the fight and walk himself right into something big. Iuri Alcantara via submission, round 1.
Staff picking Alcantara: Zane, Harry, Mookie, Tim
Staff picking Sandhagen: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Dayne, Stephie
Andrew Sanchez vs. Markus Perez
Phil Mackenzie: What in the world happened to Andrew Sanchez. At first he was wearing out physical talents like Khalil Rountree and a decent wrestler in Trevor Smith. Losing to Anthony Smith? Fine, sure, I can see it. Losing to Ryan Janes, though? Perez isn’t anything particularly special, but he’s a tough, reasonably athletic grappler and unless he’s going to have 100% control for an entire match I’m not sure that I can trust Sanchez any more. Markus Perez by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Both guys look prone to gassing. Sanchez is the better striker by a mile, and Perez is likely the better grappler, but Sanchez is the better wrestler too. If Perez were a more composed fighter outside his BJJ game, I’d pick him to outlast Sanchez and rally for the win, but I haven’t seen anything from him that looks like a fighter who rallies. Andrew Sanchez by decision.
Staff picking Sanchez: Bissell, Nick, Zane, Harry, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Perez: Phil, Dayne, Tim
Mickey Gall vs. George Sullivan
Phil Mackenzie: Neither man exactly inspired confidence last time out. Mickey Gall got outgrappled by the not (particularly devastating) ground game of Randy Brown, and Sullivan is just looking old and slow. I guess I have more faith in Gall to look improved from fight to fight. Mickey Gall by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Gall may not be a more technical fighter anywhere than Sullivan, outside his top control grappling, but he’s way younger, less shopworn, and more durable. That alone is probably enough, especially since Sullivan isn’t way better than Gall anywhere. Mickey Gall via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Gall: Mookie, Nick, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Stephie
Staff picking Sullivan:
Joanne Calderwood vs. Kalindra Faria
Phil Mackenzie: Should be a reasonably fun striking matchup. Both women have struggled with slow starts and getting outgrappled. As of the moment, Calderwood has better wins and has lost to a higher caliber of fighter, but there isn’t much between these two fighters. Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If Faria weren’t so willing to engage I’d pick Calderwood, but otherwise, I don’t see Faria making the kind of terrible mistakes that Casey did against Jo-Jo and that was a fight that Casey came out and absolutely blitzed her in before falling to pieces. Faria seems like the harder hitter and as long as she’s going to be going strike for strike with Calderwood, I’ll trust that to carry her to a win. Calderwood really needs to prove that she can pull the trigger more often and take fewer shots doing it against athletes that are more or less on her level. Until I see it, I won’t pick it. Kalindra Faria by decision.
Staff picking Calderwood: Bissell, Phil, Nick, Dayne, Harry, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Faria: Zane, Tim
Drew Dober vs. Jon Tuck
Phil Mackenzie: Underwhelming athlete who has steadily improved against excellent athlete who has stagnated. Dober sits down more on his punches, wrestles more effectively, and remains as incredibly durable as he was when he joined the UFC. Tuck is still just a mishmash of random finishing techniques (heel kicks to the body?) but he has major cardio issues, and I put exactly zero weight on finishing Takanori Gomi. Drew Dober by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Tuck has a really bad old-school tendency of turn taking when he’s standing at range, and it tends to make him a much more predictable fighter than it seems like he should be. Dober is a weird grab bag, as a volume muay thai striker whose slowly found power and a wrestling game, but lacks the accuracy standing and the grappling chops on the mat to make himself consistently dangerous. Still, if he’s willing to push the pace on Tuck, I won’t bet on Tuck responding. Drew Dober by decision.
Staff picking Dober: Phil, Nick, Zane, Dayne, Mookie, Tim, Stephie
Staff picking Tuck: Bissell, Harry
Luke Sanders vs. Rani Yahya
Phil Mackenzie: Luke Sanders looked like he had the potential to be a major player at bantamweight, but porous defense and an aggressive young man’s game combined with the fact that he is not actually all that young have delivered some setbacks. He likes mixing it up in the clinch, and has gotten caught taking his eyes off the road while grappling, so he’s not going to have bulletproof defense against Yahya, but he should have enough pure physicality and wrestling defense to push Yahya to the point where he starts to gas. Luke Sanders by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Luke Sanders has trouble going from range into the pocket without eating shots, and he’s also seen a serious wall in the UFC with a wrestling game that just isn’t deep enough for other top talents. It’s meant that he’s been stuck relying on his kickboxing game more often than not, and his kickboxing just isn’t that great. Still, it’s better than Yahya’s. And while Sanders’ offensive wrestling has struggled, his defensive wrestling has been fantastic. Yahya’s a weird test and may still find a way to get him down, or backpack him standing. But barring that, I expect Sanders to keep Yahya in K-1 mode and steadily out-work him there. Luke Sanders by Decision.
Staff picking Sanders: Bissell, Phil, Nick, Zane, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Yahya: Dayne, Harry, Tim