Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman fight card in Santiago, Chile.
The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman in Santiago, Chile. Only Tim Burke is picking Demian Maia over Kamaru Usman in the main event, while it’s pretty one-sided for Tatiana Suarez to beat Alexa Grasso in the co-main event.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Demian Maia vs. Kamaru Usman
Mookie Alexander: The Covington fight basically made it that much easier for me to pick Usman. Maia will likely have a strong go in the opening round and possibly into round 2, but if Usman is perhaps a little gun shy on the feet compared to Covington, he’s not nearly as hittable as Colby is. Usman is a strong athlete and that’s basically disaster for Maia, whose shots will become increasingly predictable and tire him out. Even on the ground, Maia isn’t usually a major threat to submit you from the bottom, so if Usman can get on top, that’s big trouble for the Brazilian. There are just too many paths to victory for Usman for me to pick against him. Kamaru Usman by TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: Usman’s a scary dude, and there’s a reason why a lot of guys won’t fight him. He’s too great an athlete, his wrestling is fantastic and his striking is coming along great. Maia’s a crafty dude and arguably the best grappler in the sport (other than Jake Shields), but even if he avoids the big shots standing, he’s going to struggle to get Kamaru to the ground. Besides, Usman’s cardio is legit, and he can explode out of bad situations to inflict serious damage. Kamaru Usman by TKO, round 4.
Zane Simon: Because neither Usman nor Maia are fantastic finishers (and yes I know Maia has great BJJ), this fight is very likely going to be a battle of confidence and control. Maia likely has more confidence in his striking, as weird as that seems, but given Usman’s size, power, cardio, and technical wrestling, it’s way too easy for me to see him dominating control. Whether it’s grinding Maia on the cage, or following him into the half guard sweep and shutting it down to keep top control, as long as Usman can stay off his back early, It’s hard for me to see him getting submitted late. And yeah, over 5 rounds, there’s a fair chance he even gets a finish as Maia starts to tire. Kamaru Usman via TKO, Round 4.
Staff picking Maia: Tim
Staff picking Usman: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Victor, Dayne, Zane, Stephie
Alexa Grasso vs. Tatiana Suarez
Mookie Alexander: The odds on this are whack. I think they opened at pick ‘em and now Suarez can be gotten at -900. Suarez may be one-dimensional at this stage, but he’s a really good wrestler and it’s not like Grasso has shown airtight takedown defense in her rather underwhelming UFC career. I suppose if Grasso does show she can keep herself upright then it’s a no contest on the feet in the Mexican’s favor, but I won’t bank on that. Tatiana Suarez by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: The thing with Grasso is that her game is very fluid until she has to constantly defend takedowns. Suarez is a high-caliber wrestler that’s getting her striking together, but can really fluster Grasso with her takedown attempts and bodylocks. I’m going to go with Grasso due to her experience and more well-rounded game, but Suarez has a way better chance than some people think. Alexa Grasso by decision.
Zane Simon: Both Grasso and Suarez are raw enough that there are a lot of questions to answer with this fight. Is Suarez as good a wrestler as she looks against someone actually capable of staying on their feet at all? Has she ever dealt with an aggressive guard grappling game like Grasso’s? What happens when she has to struggle for takedowns, if she does? Will she gas? There’s a good chance that Grasso can just make Suarez work hard enough to close distance, and hard enough against the cage, to turn this into a scrappy, largely standup battle late. But I feel like Suarez does just a few too many technical things right on the mat, and it seems more likely to be a battle of momentum, where once she gets Grasso down, later takedowns become easier as Grasso gets tired from carrying her. Still, it’d be the first time losing that kind of fight for Grasso. Tatiana Suarez via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I initially picked Suarez because she is simply more confident in and committed to her skillset and clearly the better baseline athlete. However, I still think she might be just a bit too one-note in her attack to beat Grasso. Almost all of Grasso’s fights have been high-paced and variegated, often against fighters who can switch gears from striking to takedowns at will (notably Herrig and Markos). She did fairly well in both those fights, despite the fact that both of those opponents are clearly coming into their prime. Conversely, Suarez just hasn’t had the kind of experience where she’s been fighting against a comparable athlete who gets up after takedowns, throws back after being hit, and is consistently there in the fight. Maybe Grasso just gets bundled over repeatedly, but I’ll take better volume and accuracy and Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Grasso: Victor, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Suarez: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Stephie
Jared Cannonier vs. Dominick Reyes
Mookie Alexander: Cannonier is weirdly inconsistent, so no one would be surprised if he suddenly looked like a promising contender again vs. a quality prospect in “The Devastator.” Reyes hits hard and has good submissions, but he’s rarely been tested in his young career. One thing we know about Cannonier is his takedown defense is a weak spot. If Cannonier figures to be the better striker, I hope Reyes plays it smart and wrestles him and makes him work off of his back. Please get us a young LHW with a bright future. PLEASE! Dominick Reyes by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: When he beat Ion Cutelaba, Cannonier looked like a future contender. Granite chin, great athleticism, rapidly improving boxing, ability to keep a great pace, what’s not to like? Then he was dismantled in the wrestling by Teixeira, and easily outstruck by Blachowicz. The merciless cycle of LHW continues, where prospects disappoint, and then get good juust late enough for you to have given up on them, at which point they whomp the next generation of prospects, and so on and so on, 205 in aeternum. Reyes has been earmarked as the next big thing in the division… so this should logically be the point at which he flops. The most depressing and baffling outcome would be Cannonier outwrestling Reyes, so I’m going to pick it. Because that’s how this division do. Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Cannonier can take a punch, he has cardio late, and he has good defensive grappling (along with terrible takedown defense). I haven’t seen nearly enough wrestling from Reyes, or any of the kind of defensively cautious striking that gives Cannonier trouble to make me feel like he can stay ahead if this fight goes longer than 3 minutes. Too many unknowns, and the wins Reyes has just don’t mean enough. Jared Cannonier by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Cannonier’s striking should make this tougher for Reyes, unless he’s able to withstand some punishment and time his takedown attempts. Jared seems like he’s going to at least scare Reyes off with some big swings and then compose himself to work smart and stay ahead. Jared Cannonier by decision.
Staff picking Cannonier: Bissell, Phil, Zane, Victor, Tim
Staff picking Reyes: Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie
Andrea Lee vs. Veronica Macedo
Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight so much. Macedo hits harder, but Lee has patience and better use of range and movement. Her striking is just a level or two above Macedo’s because of her composure and ability to mix things up with more fluidity. Andrea Lee by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Lee reminds me a little of Nicolas Dalby: a functional, determined and skillful fighter whose athletic limitations can already be picked up from watching them on the regional scene. Macedo is more athletic, faster and hits harder shot-for-shot, but also isn’t doing nearly as much to maximize that athleticism, being heavily reliant on distance and kicking offense. So, if we take Dalby vs Zaleski dos Santos as the model, that seems to dictate a close, competitive fight where the more experienced and coherent fighter edges it out. Andrea Lee by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Lee is going to have trouble with other skilled women in the division that can match her fitness and just be faster off the line than she is. Her wrestling especially looks like a major liability (even when she’s the one trying to take people down). But what we’ve seen from Macedo is a dynamic, interesting athlete, who just doesn’t look like she’s had the coaching to compete at this level. Maybe that’s changed since her debut. Maybe she’s in better shape, maybe she’s added more tools than “fun kicks” to her game. But until I know that, I won’t bet on it. Andrea Lee by submission, round 3.
Staff picking Lee: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Phil, Zane, Stephie, Victor, Tim
Staff picking Macedo:
Guido Cannetti vs. Diego Rivas
Zane Simon: Guido Cannetti is wild to a fault, but he has the kind of aggression that seems like it can bulldoze a few lower end opponents. Rivas kicks hard and… doesn’t really do anything else at all? Guido Cannetti via TKO, Round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: It’s hard not to pick a guy that’s pretty reckless when he’s good at landing stuff that shouldn’t really work. Diego’s got a more bread and butter style, but isn’t as quick and may be susceptible to taking the bait and eating some big damaging shots. Guido Canetti by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Rivas the highest ranking Chilean on the card . Which explains why this fight is where it is. But he hasn’t really done much in the UFC apart from landing a flying knee KO on Noad Lahat, the most Flying Kneeable Man In The World(tm). Guido Cannetti is hyper aggressive and against Quinonez (and Lahat, mostly), Rivas fought incredibly passively. Guido Cannetti by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Cannetti: Zane, Victor, Phil
Staff picking Rivas: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Tim
Chad Laprise vs. Vicente Luque
Phil Mackenzie: Laprise wasn’t everyone’s pick to make a successful welterweight transition, but he’s now 2-0, although against admittedly mediocre opposition. He’s a clean, efficient striker who cuts up the inside and draws the shortest distance between two points while staying defensively responsible- reminiscent of John Makdessi back at lightweight, who also ably contests range and athleticism disparities. Like Makdessi, though, those disparities don’t ever go away. Luque is well-equipped to exploit them. He is bigger, blazing fast and a finishing threat everywhere, and his kickboxing in particular has improved in leaps and bounds. Like most Hooft fighters, he tends to disintegrate in protracted grappling exchanges that don’t favour him, but Laprise is unlikely to be able to capitalize there. Vicente Luque by TKO, round 1
Zane Simon: This seems strange to say, but a little too much of Laprise’s game is based around being slicker, or more varied than his opponent for me to like him in fights like this. He tends to put out a high volume boxing attack, which means he’s willing to get hit quite a bit, in the understanding that he’ll be landing more of the better shots. And when that isn’t working, he’ll switch to a functional grinding wrestling game. All of which works great if your opponent just isn’t a very skilled striker at all, or isn’t a very good athlete. But against fighters like Luque, up a division, where Laprise is conceding more strength and power to elite athletes, being a guy who takes one to give two and then tries to put the grind on people has a much much thinner margin for error. I can easily see Laprise winning early striking exchanges, before getting cracked really hard and dropped, where he either gets KO’d or submitted. Vicente Luque via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Nope. I see what the other guys here are saying, but Laprise still has better technical fundamentals and less of a reliance on his athleticism. Plus, he’s got Firas Zahabi in his corner and a more well-rounded game. Sticking with the Canadian here. Chad Laprise by decision.
Staff picking Laprise: Bissell, Victor, Tim
Staff picking Luque: Nick, Phil, Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Stephie
Zak Cummings vs. Michel Prazeres
Phil Mackenzie: The question for Rafael dos Anjos in his welterweight transition was: can a rectangular cuboid move up in weight and still do well? And the answer was yes. The geometric question for Prazeres is more tricky: can a cube move up in weight and still do well? Prazeres’ improvements have been genuinely impressive: he bangs in leg kicks and standing pressure far better whilst his top game has become both more controlling and threatening. Cummings seems a rough style matchup. While his heavy front leg is going to be there to be hit, he’s a strong wrestler and a good counterpuncher with a simply enormous reach advantage. Every time Prazeres tries to kick he’ll be contesting that counter hook. Zak Cummings by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: Prazeres is exactly the kind of fighter where either his takedown game is working, or he’s on thin ice. If he can get in behind his strikes and find the double leg consistently, then he’s amazingly hard to beat. If he can’t, then he’s a powerful, but limited, incredibly short armed kickboxer. That seems like a bad recipe against a huge welterweight who, himself, is a very strong wrestler and grappler. If this is going to be a kickboxing match, then I have to take the guy with the large reach advantage who tends to be the much sharper combination striker. Zak Cummings by decision.
Staff picking Cummings: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Prazeres: Tim
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Phil Mackenzie: One of the toughest picks on the card, where two very similar fighters are going at it in the rematch. Both are incredibly willing submission and backtake scramblers, both slightly wild but aggressive strikers. I guess I’ll give it to Moreno to edge it out because he is simply the more willing wrestler, and being first in the scrambles will give him a control and initiative edge, but I have very little confidence in this one. Brandon Moreno by split decision.
Zane Simon: I’m very likely (and possibly mistakenly) betting on Moreno’s composure to have improved since these two men first met in the TUF house. What they engaged in there otherwise seems like a good port for what we can expect here. Which is to say, whoever stayed on the front foot tended to win any given exchange, and while Pantoja was on the front foot more often, Moreno’s athletic advantage tended to mean his strikes counted for more. This time around, I expect Moreno to be just a little bit better about maintaining the ugly sprawling mess of a fight they had previously, and for that to be more difficult for Pantoja to keep up with as a result. Brandon Moreno by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: My problem here is Pantoja’s lack of urgency in some of his fights and lack of volume for certain lengths of time. Moreno’s going to look for funky side angles and will almost undoubtedly spam kicks until he can work his takedown game. Not sure he can submit Pantoja, but he’ll control him enough on the ground for us to find out. Brandon Moreno by decision.
Staff picking Moreno: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Zane, Stephie, Victor, Phil
Staff picking Pantoja: Dayne, Tim
Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
Phil Mackenzie: Divisional sausage-making right here. Both reasonably talented but boy are they raw, and this kind of match would have been offloaded onto the regionals back in the day. Kondo throws a lot of volume and is aggressive, Botelho likely has the higher ceiling and more power, but tends to try to throw off the back foot. If she had a more functional wrestling game I might pick her to Barzola / Bochniak her way to victory, but in a striking match I think Kondo just wears her down. Syuri Kondo by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Syuri Kondo is going to march forward, working behind her jab, looking to land the shift cross. Poliana Botelho is going to run backwards, looking to wind up on wide, power hooks, and, if the fight demands it, go to the mat where she can turn scrambles into a grappling advantage. The trouble for me is just that I don’t think the fight will demand it. And that means that it’s Kondo moving forward throwing volume, and Botelho moving back throwing power, and I don’t trust Botelho’s power enough to make the difference in rounds. Syuri Kondo by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Kondo is fun to watch, mostly because she just plows forward like a steamroller and takes scoring leads on opponent that only move backwards. Botelho is pretty smart and has a striking background, so I would expect some lateral movement to be employed on her part. It just looks like Kondo will have more advantages by fighting in a style that is rewarded by judges, thrown in with ugly clinches and knees against the cage. Syuri Kondo by decision.
Staff picking Botelho: Bissell, Nick, Stephie, Tim
Staff picking Kondo: Phil, Dayne, Zane, Victor, Mookie
Gabriel Benitez vs. Humberto Bandenay
Phil Mackenzie: Bandenay feels a little like Benitez at an earlier stage of development, before he had really narrowed his game down into the most functional pieces- body kick, leg kick, cross. Bandenay is a somewhat over-willing scrambler and wild striker who nonetheless clearly has a good amount of physical talent, but Benitez should just be able to drive his more functional, focused game right through the center. Gabriel Benitez by TKO, round 2
Zane Simon: Given single strikes, and especially kicks, Bandenay looks really dangerous and capable. He’s obviously invested heavily in a diverse, power kicking game. Everything else looks terribly terribly raw. He moves straight back with his head on line and chin up when pressured. He dives forward behind a flurry of arm punches with his feet trailing behind him, when moving forward. Is he a good enough kicker to depend on that alone in a slow paced range battle against Benitez? Maybe, if he can get the early KO. But Benitez is tough and more technical, and not only kicks brutally hard, but has a pretty solid, basic 1-2 boxing game behind it. That should be enough to get this win. Gabriel Benitez by TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: Benitez has a more technically well-rounded game, but Bandenay has lethal striking and very deceptive use of those long limbs of his. He’s stronger than he looks and is a hell of an athlete, finding great success despite his lack of a proper training environment for true high-level talent. Benitez throws volume and has some good combination striking, but doesn’t bust it out often enough. Bandenay’s mixups and level changes with his striking will leave Benitez on the wrong end of a highlight reel. Humberto Bandenay by TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Benitez: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Phil, Zane, Stephie, Tim
Staff picking Bandenay: Victor
Enrique Barzola vs. Brandon Davis
Phil Mackenzie: Brandon Davis’ primary flaw was on stark display against Kyle Bochniak. He can throw a lot of punches in combination but he has to be planted to do it. So, he chased Bochniak repeatedly, and could never sit down on his punches, and when he did he got countered and taken down. That seems like something that the Peruvian maestro of jankiness can replicate. A kind of budget Dom Cruz, Barzola is at his best when working from range and mixing up low kicks and takedowns. Both seem like they should work, although Davis’ scrappiness and Barzola’s comparative hittability will probably make it close. Enrique Barzola by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Early on, when Davis is light on his feet, sticking and moving, and Barzola is trying to do the same, I expect Davis to have the advantage. His better defense and higher output should mean that he gets a few shots in, especially if Barzola tries to march him down. But over time, as Davis’ footwork slows, he tends to be easy to tie up, and shows very little initiative in clinch and wrestling exchanges. Not showing initiative when tying up with Barzola is just asking for him to ragdoll you around for the whole fight. Enrique Barzola via decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I’m with Phil here. Barzola’s going to bait Davis into a boxing match for about 40 seconds and then blast through with the takedown when Davis gets comfortable. Once we’re there, Barzola should be able to do more cumulative damage than Davis bargained for and end up with his cardio sapped. Enrique Barzola by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Barzola: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Davis: Dayne, Tim
Henry Briones vs. Frankie Saenz
Phil Mackenzie: Briones is someone who I think would have been a very interesting prospect in another timeline. At the moment it seems like a decent knack for the sport is warring with the fact that he’s 37 years old and coming up on 11 years as a pro, most of which he fought against pretty middling competition. Saenz is an interesting proposition to take on a range boxer: he really needs the clinch in order to get his offense off, and in a pure kickboxing match I likely favour Briones. However, Briones was asked the question “can you keep an old, tough guy off you” last time when he fought Yahya, and the answer was “no”. Frankie Saenz by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Briones is the better boxer here. He actually works the body consistently, punches behind his jab, and has some eye for defense. He also seems like a very sub-UFC caliber athlete. Saenz has trouble keeping a fight to any one area, but he’s a very good wrestler/grappler, and dynamic enough standing to make his winging power punches work for him in short bursts. As long as he doesn’t get absolutely melted (which doesn’t seem to be Briones’ specialty) I expect him to get takedowns, control the fight in the clinch, and generally just be too physical for Briones to win. Frankie Saenz by decision.
Staff picking Briones: Bissell
Staff picking Saenz: Nick, Phil, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Tim
Claudio Puelles vs. Felipe Silva
Zane Simon: Puelles is okay at everything and a pretty good athlete, but great at nothing. Maybe he can work enough of a wrestling game to take Silva out of his element and keep him there, but I won’t bet on it. Silva is wild at range, but he’s got a violent clinch game, tons of aggression, and solid power. That should be enough. Felipe Silva by KO, Round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Lord forgive me, for I shall commit two cardinal sins: MMA math and recency bias. Silva’s only loss was to Mairbek Taisumov, who would be fighting top ten guys if he were allowed in the U.S. by now. Other than that, he’s been absolutely brutalizing guys in the UFC. Puelles seems like a good egg, and he’s a good fighter that had to scratch and claw his way to where he’s at. But that’s also the problem, he’s woefully unprepared for this level. Felipe Silva by KO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Once more we have a fighter who should by all reasons just be too raw for the fight in front of him. Puelles is working on the beginnings of an effective all-round MMA game, but Silva is a rawhide tough banger who is going to make him uncomfortable in the same ways that Martin Bravo did. Felipe Silva by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Puelles: Bissell
Staff picking Silva: Nick, Dayne, Zane, Stephie, Victor, Tim, Phil, Mookie