Phil and David break down everything you need to about TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz for UFC Fight Night in Boston, and everything you don’t about ‘paradigm shifts’.
The bantamweight crown gets its first lineal showdown as TJ Dillashaw defends what Dominick Cruz never lost this January 17, 2016 at the TD Garden on Boston, Masachusetts.
Single sentence summary:
Phil: The analytical Ryu meets the emotional Ken of stance-shifting Sheng Long
David: TJ Kuhn meets Dominick Polanyi in a fight that will determine the MMA paradigm.
Stats?
TJ Dillashaw 12-2
Odds: -145
Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz 20-1
Odds: +125
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: TJ Dillashaw was a sacrificial lamb for Renan Barao- he might have been someone to challenge for the belt one day, but it was too early and Dillashaw wasn’t far removed from a loss to Rafael Assuncao. In retrospect, should he have been as written off as much as he was? Absolutely not. Even then, the most ardent TJ supporters couldn’t have seen the shellacking he put on Barao, though. He was the first Team Alpha Male champ… until he left to go and train in Colorado, nearer (although notably not at the same gym) to his new mentor Duane Ludwig.
David: Dillashaw is a lot like an experimental album that quickly blooms into a status quo. Like Ziggy Stardust perhaps? While my musical metaphors are mixed (and uneducated), there is nothing mixed about TJ’s status. He shredded Renan Barao into bits. Twice. And now he’s cemented himself as not only a UFC champ, but a harbinger of technical revolution.
Phil: Dominic Cruz was the bantamweight champ before Barao. At least, he was until his knees (and groin) exploded repeatedly. If he was before his time in terms of technique, pioneering a complex, footwork-heavy and integrated style, he was before his time in terms of fan love. Seems like time behind the desk has made Dom more popular than he ever was, and his technical, clever style appears to have grown on people. Or maybe it’s just that I’m not on message boards any more.
David: It helps that Dom actually got back into action in 2014. If he wasn’t so impressive against Mizugaki, his words wouldn’t carry weight. But he was, so they do. And how. I actually kind of loved his Wittgenstein approach to Zuffa’s HBO rip off show with TJ and him smack talking one another. In truth, Dom has been making his arguments for six years. Showing people that his movement is not just an aimless mixture of stutter steps and slips. Nobody believed him because he didn’t finish people like TJ but Cruz has had a much stronger strength of schedule (not sure anybody would argue this either).
What are the stakes?
Phil: This is the biggest fight in bantamweight history, apart from maybe Faber-Cruz II. And yeah, I know that probably doesn’t mean a whole lot. The main question it’s asking is how well the classic model really stands up in the modern world. We talk a big game about how much MMA “evolves”, and now we genuinely get to see what happens when a champion from the past is basically transported forwards a few years, almost directly into another title fight.
David: This is what I love about this fight. The stakes have a truly abstract quality. I mean, the whole “neo footwork” thing is practically an op ed in the New York Times, right next to Joko Widodo and identity politics at the Oscars. Sure it’s not descriptive of anything meaningful, but it will be fun to discuss what really is an evolution in the way fighters think about meaningful offense. I just wish we had this discussion about “neo jiu jitsu” when Sakuraba was doing his thing, or “neo SAFTA” when Jon Hess got scientifically disturbed by Belfort’s fists.
Where do they want it?
David: Fine. Let’s do it. Brighter people have discussed TJ’s movement. But brighter people read their work, so here’s the cliff notes version for you readers as incapable as me. Dillashaw’s movement is all about misdirection; the ability to subvert traditions of effective stance positioning in the service of pressure, and efficiency.
Any athlete’s real weapon is pattern recognition. Anyone he’s ever spent two minutes reading David Epstein’s The Sports Gene knows this. Anyone who hasn’t read that great book but saw Albert Pujols get smoked by Jennie Finch also knows this. Chip Kelly might have some questions, but nothing about the way athletes rely on anticipation and identification is in doubt.
If I could borrow the Joe Rogan hyperbole microphone, Dillashaw and Cruz both relish their Kuhnian role in this paradigm shift.
Both take drastically different approaches to their dance dance revolution styles though. In fact, there’s nothing subtle about their differences in the same way Conor McGregor is different from Lyoto Machida. TJ is all about how to use his movement in service of pressure. Yes, he’s not just an offensive firehose, but when he’s switching stances, from southpaw to orthodox, with lateral movement and pivots, he’s looking for high impact strikes. Even his jab from his southpaw stance is all about violence rather than virtuosity.
Phil: TJ’s UFC career has in many ways been a story of fighting against himself. The stance-switching outside game has been present in every bout, but one of the central issues has been how long he can maintain it before he just says “screw it” and starts to brawl. The subtleties of his approach peel away, and he reverts to his earliest approach- a mixup between the switch headkick and the penetration step for his double leg; a right uppercut when stepping in (ref: article picture). He’s steadily gotten better and better at keeping his head, and the best single improvement he’s had under Bang’s tutelage is in his usage of the jab, particularly from southpaw, as a padding range-finder (which he’ll also use to blind opponents while switching in range) or a stinging counter. He also has a fantastic counter right hook, which will likely be central. He is obviously very right-hand centric when opening attacks. He has a counter left straight, but only seems to use it near the cage or in combinations. Said combinations are often closed with the left kick which may get play as Cruz tries to roll out and away.
As far as grappling goes, TJ’s fantastic wrestling game is most distinguished by the way he uses his legs- not in terms of working for triangles but as a lever. He shows a deep double leg in this video where he steps in and literally pushes the opponent over his thigh like a table. Defensively, he tends to feed the single like Jose Aldo, but instead of getting out of there, he immediately goes on the offensive, leaving the leg in and wrapping around the side to attack the back in scrambles.
TJ’s main challenge in this fight is keeping the ranges straight in his head. A lot of it will be out-fighting, and if he gets overeager on combinations more suited for the pocket, Cruz will just drift out of the way and hit him. He needs to pressure, but stay patient. Be mean, but not angry.
David: Now that we’ve gotten the intro to fight philosophy out of the way, we can talk a few specifics. As I’ve said about Pettis time and time again, Cruz is the pattern to TJ’s percussion. Cruz needs his literal dance mapped out, verified, and must be capable of making predictions. He doesn’t hit with power, so in a lot of ways his style is an intelligent self awareness of his own limitations; The punches just need to land to be effective in serving as gateways to things like his knee tap, and double leg.
Cruz’ knee tap is his secret weapon. Not only does his length give him better leverage, but his general quickness is complimented by his specific unorthodox movement that combine to make him that much more efficient in closing the distance or scoring takedowns outright.
Phil: Cruz is just a great all-round grappler. Nowhere was this more in evidence than his fight with Mighty Mouse, where he hit a dazzling array of trips, double legs, and even a brace of belly-to-back suplexes. As has been mentioned by Connor, Cruz’s grappling is generally the area of fighting which he approaches with the most commitment. He isn’t exactly risk-averse, but his style is built around minimizing damage, and guard is a relatively safe place to be. He’s also phenomenal at keeping chain wrestling attacks going- he doesn’t just focus on guard or half-guard attacks, but on keeping attacking for dominant positions at every part of a scramble.
On the feet, he’s all about misdirection. He rarely hits all that hard, because he’s always beginning to pull his weight back even as he throws it. However, he’s probably the more diverse offensive fighter, attacking more equally from both sides and with a greater variety of openers, primarily the dipping jab or the darting right. Although Dillashaw has more of the reputation as a kicker, Cruz does a good job attacking all areas, particularly stepping out with a switching outside leg kick.
Cruz’s problems are that his counters leave a bit to be desired, and the way he deliberately attacks at maximum extension robs his strikes of power. He’s never really been badly hurt in a fight, but he can get dropped if caught square, and can be backed up by people who don’t fear his power. Rather than punches, his best counter is probably his stepping / jumping knee. These are generally pretty risky, but he’s one of the few guys (Machida / Cerrone) who almost always picks the right time to use it. Unlike TJ, he never goes off-script during his fights and fights in the “wrong” way, but he also doesn’t have TJ’s natural viciousness in pressure situations.
Insight from past fights?
David: All of TJ’s past fights. Dillashaw hasn’t had to face fighters that could match his movement. Even in the event that Cruz’ is slower, a half speed Cruz is still a hell of a lot quicker than Raphael Assuncao or Joe Soto.
Phil: Fully agreed. Speed troubled Cruz somewhat in the Faber, Mouse and even Benavidez bouts. However, Dilly’s opponents are great fighters, but they’re also some of the most footslow bantamweights to ever step in the octagon. We just haven’t seen how well he deals when he’s not the faster guy in the cage.
X-Factors?
David: So maybe a doctor would struggle to locate a bursa sac in Cruz’ legs. The hot take X-factor is whether or not Dillashaw’s blood brain barrier was disturbed by Cruz’ verbal liquor.
Phil: Given TJ’s aforementioned tendency to sometimes see red in pursuit of the finish, I think that if Cruz has any kind of dominant victory, this will be one of the prominent narratives in the post-fight (whether it’s actually true or not).
My pick for X-factor is the big cage. Faber and the Mouse both backed up Cruz a few times, but this is a full-size UFC cage and Dilly will have to work that much harder.
Prognostication:
David: Cruz hasn’t had to deal with a volume puncher like Dillashaw who could also hit with power. And any decrease in footwork speed will have a subtle but vital effect on dealing with TJ’s offense, and his own. But I feel like Cruz has a good enough chin to avoid getting completely worked over with a single shot. Not only that, but Dillashaw’s volume should be lessened by Cruz’ threat if not actuality when it comes to takedowns. Dillashaw is definitely the better combination puncher. This is the biggest tactical advantage on the feet in my opinion because it means Cruz’ feints and pivots won’t be as defensively useful, but I think Cruz’ philosophy is more sound for a mixed martial arts bout whereas Dillashaw’s “neo footwork” is stronger only in a vacuum. Dominick Cruz by Decision.
Phil: There are so many possible ways this can go. The champ needs to walk a bit of a tightrope between not chasing Cruz too much, and not letting him set up his entries. However, in the end I think his harder strikes and cleaner counterpunches leave him better prepared to land “big” or memorable moments of offense in what may be a nip-tuck, absolutely fascinating fight. TJ Dillashaw by split decision.