Filed under: UFC
It’s been four years since a UFC championship has been defended on basic cable TV, a streak that will end on Saturday when bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz attempts to hold onto his belt and thwart the challenge of Demetrious Johnson.
The matchup, broadcast on Versus, likely boasts the speediest pair of fighters ever matched for a UFC title. Cruz is known for his fancy footwork and ability to weave in and out of striking distance, while the 5-foot-3 Johnson expertly navigates reach differentials with his own swift feet.
Cruz has been likened to Lyoto Machida in that he has an unconventional style that is relatively difficult to emulate and causes matchup difficulties. But apart from that similarity, their styles are actually quite different. While Machida tends to be very still, leans back out of punching range and waits to aggressively move in for a killshot, Cruz’s success is built on his endless movement, flurries of activity and ability to seamlessly transition from standup to takedowns.
It’s this unique set of skills that awaits Johnson as a challenge.
For at least part of it, Johnson is at least on paper, equipped. Much like Cruz, Johnson spent his high school years as a wrestler. That’s shown offensively, as Johnson has successfully completed 74 percent of his takedowns, according to FightMetric.
Defensively, however, Johnson has had some difficulties. He’s only stopped 46 percent of attempts against him. Given the frequency of Cruz’s takedown tries (he’s scored 31 takedowns in his last six fights), Johnson will have to do much better than that to give himself a chance to win.
On their feet, things get trickier. An interesting note about Cruz is that for all the accolades his striking receives, he’s not a particularly accurate striker. In fact, he’s below average when it comes to connection percentage, landing only 29 percent of his thrown strikes. That probably comes as a surprising statistic to many who constantly hear about Cruz’s standup brilliance.
In reality, Cruz’s striking success is based on volume and relentlessness above all else. Take his most recent title defense against Urijah Faber, for example. In the bout, Cruz out-landed Faber 97-53 overall. However, again, Cruz connected on just 39.4 percent of his strikes.
For all his activity, Cruz rarely offers opponents a chance to hit him in flush in return. Faber, for example, scored on just 32 percent of his shots. While Faber arguably landed the bigger shots, they were fewer and farther between, and Cruz’s offensive aggression makes an impact in the minds of the judges.
We’ve seen a trend recently of opponents trying to engage Cruz in tight. Since he’s not considered a power puncher, foes are willing to sit back, let the right-hander wade in towards them and fire back power shots as he steps into range. Both Faber and his Team Alpha Male teammate Joseph Benavidez employed that kind of strategy, often keying on his kicks.
For Johnson, it would be a bit trickier, because while he has the speed to employ it, he hasn’t shown the power to make that kind of attack the right one for him. That plan tends to be a risky proposition. When Cruz attacks first, there will usually be at least 3-4 strikes coming, and you might only get to fire off one in return. That almost ensures you’ll lose the flurry in the eyes of the judges (barring a knockdown or flush strike), and over the course of the round, those types of exchanges will add up in his favor, as they have over and over.
Johnson has so far in his UFC/WEC career flashed an impressive mix of striking accuracy and defense. He has successfully landed 51 percent of his strikes, and despite his usual reach disadvantage, he rarely gets hit. One interesting stat is that he only absorbs 0.98 strikes per minute, a number which would rank him No. 2 for best defense in the UFC if he had enough fights to qualify him for the leaderboard. By comparison, Cruz absorbs 1.75 strikes per minute.
Cruz is about a 5-to-1 favorite, and that number is a little too big for a fighter who goes to decisions so often. His game is well equipped to win either a striking, wrestling or ground battle, but he’s never shown the ability to overwhelm a foe except in volume. Johnson is one of the few bantamweights in the world who may be faster than Cruz and can match his gas tank. Because of that, I expect this fight to be more competitive than the line indicates.
The key factor in this bout may not end up being speed or striking, but Cruz’s takedown defense. Johnson’s wrestling doesn’t get a ton of notice, but since losing his WEC debut, he’s scored 23 takedowns in four fights, successfully completing 74.1 percent of his tries. It was his wrestling that helped him win his two biggest fights, and we shouldn’t expect him to abandon it now. Keeping Johnson at the end of his leg kicks will help Cruz in that regard, along with his natural gifts.
The wrestling game will stalemate at times, leading this fight to be decided standing. As usual, Cruz’s flurries and pace will offer him an advantage there. If Johnson tries to be a counter-fighter, he’ll suffer the same fate as Faber and the rest, caught up in the numbers game. If he comes forward, his chances are better, but crossing the distance will leave him open to counters. Johnson is going to have his moments, but fighting from range is Cruz’s specialty, and that’s where most of this fight will be decided. Cruz via decision.