Three former champions are on the road back to their respective titles as Eddie Alvarez, Jose Aldo, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk return to the Octagon this Saturday night (July 28, 2018) for the UFC on FOX 30 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, held inside Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Not surprisingly, Dustin Poirier, Jeremy Stephens, and Tecia Torres will have something to say about that once the cage door closes in “Stampede City,” while also carving out their own paths to the lightweight, featherweight, and strawweight titles.
Opening the card will be the less important but equally exciting Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Alexander Hernandez. The latter calls himself “The Great” and will have a chance to prove it against the longtime “Canadian Gangster.”
Before we deconstruct the four-fight main card, let’s see what’s happening on the UFC on FOX 30 preliminary line up by clicking here and here. Odds and betting lines for all the “Alvarez vs. Poirier 2” action can be perused here.
Let’s get to work.
155 lbs.: Eddie “The Underground King” Alvarez (29-5, 1 NC) vs. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (23-5, 1 NC)
Like most bouts that end in a controversial ”no contest,” there is unfinished business between Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Though to be fair, the promotion probably wouldn’t have been in any big hurry to run it back had the stakes not been so high. Both Alvarez and Poirier are ranked in the Top 5 and with the division so unreliable these days, it would be nice to have the winner of the UFC on FOX 30 main event on standby for a late 2018 title fight.
Ya’ know, just in case Conor McGregor blows another gasket or Tony Ferguson shreds another limb.
Since they first went to war at UFC 211, Alvarez and Poirier yielded similar results; namely, electrifying wins over lightweight “Highlight” Justin Gaethje. “The Diamond” also squeezed in a thrilling submission victory over Anthony Pettis, an opponent “The Underground King” wrestled past in early 2016. I don’t think we’ll get dramatically different versions of either fighter on Saturday night and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as they are both in the running for the title of most exciting lightweight fighter of all time.
So who wins?
One of the things I like most about Poirier is his ability to evolve from fight-to-fight. He was always a proficient grappler with sneaky submissions, but compare his kickboxing against Cub Swanson at UFC on Fuel TV 7 to the measured, dynamic striker we saw last April and it’s like a completely different fighter. Alvarez, meanwhile, has always had outstanding boxing, which he complements with an underrated wrestling attack. He claims to be coming off the best fight camp of his career and I believe him, and there are probably one or two 155-pound fighters who can beat Alvarez at his best.
Poirier isn’t one of them.
They match up well in all departments, but the image of “The Diamond” going limp against Michael Johnson keeps creeping into my mind. That’s because Poirier, for all his improvements, charges forward with reckless abandon when he smells blood or tastes some of his own. Alvarez is no different in the “let’s make this a bar fight” mentality, but he does a much better job of maintaining his mechanics when it happens. Don’t be surprised to see another “Fight of the Night” after a patient first round, but somewhere late in the contest, when both fighters are bloodied and ready to go for broke, Poirier is going to make a mistake that will likely cost him the win.
Final prediction: Alvarez def. Poirier by technical knockout
145 lbs: Jose “Junior” Aldo (26-4) vs. Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens (28-14)
Once the undisputed king of the featherweights, Jose Aldo now finds himself in unfamiliar territory. The Brazilian was never that active as champion and the last time he competed more than twice in one calendar year was back in 2009. In addition, he’s only seen the inside of the Octagon four times over the last four years. To make matters worse, he’s just 1-3 during that span and was finished by knockout/technical knockout in all three losses. Granted, those defeats came against Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, the best the division has to offer, but to watch Aldo get so thoroughly whooped is unquestionably a red flag.
For this fight, “Junior” brings with him the usual bag of tricks. You would be hard-pressed to find a faster striker with more devastating leg kicks — when he decides to actually throw them — and his footwork and cage control have always been problematic for flat-footed power punchers like opponent Jeremy Stephens. On the flip side of that coin, his cardio remains problematic as the fight wears on, symptomatic of his brutal weight cut and advancing age. Since this bout is only scheduled for three rounds, Aldo should be able to make it to the finish line without running out of gas.
Stephens has experienced something of a career resurgence after hooking up with Alliance MMA, smashing his way up the 145-pound ladder and landing at No. 4 in the official rankings. While that sounds impressive, he’s only beaten one featherweight currently ranked in the Top 10. That was Josh Emmett at UFC on FOX 28, a bout that also saw him in all kinds or trouble before his thunderous comeback. I don’t know if we are seeing a brand-new “Lil’ Heathen” or simply a more refined, polished version of the one who already existed. Stephens has always had knockout power and like Aldo, he knows how to put a little mustard on those leg kicks.
Stephens, a former lightweight, holds a one-inch advantage in both height and reach. Without an effective jab, I’m not sure either of those will be a factor against Aldo. Both fighters like to stand and bang and the Brazilian has been doing it longer — and to much better results — against the toughest guys in the division. I know he’s coming off a dreadful stretch, but until I see Aldo get tooled by someone who isn’t the featherweight champion, I have to assume he’s still got the chops to beat everyone else in his weight class, Stephens included. I’m expecting “Lil’ Heathen” to fall in love with the killing blow, not be able to land it, then spend a majority of the bout clomping around the cage in frustration. “Junior,” meanwhile, will enjoy his role of mouse (to cat) and rack up enough points to make this a clean sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Final prediction: Aldo def. Stephens by unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-2) vs. Tecia “Tiny Tornado” Torres (10-2)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is unquestionably the second-best strawweight in UFC and her consecutive losses — the second of which was razor-thin — is a prime example of how every great fighter has a foil. Newly-crowned champion Rose Namajunas may or may not be the better all-around combatant but in this sport, it doesn’t matter. Stylistically, “Thug Rose” is just a bad match up for the power-punching Pole and that cost her 115-pounds of gold. For her sake, I hope the ex-champ doesn’t attempt to overhaul her style or plan of attack, because the Jedrzejczyk who lost to Namajunas is still good enough to beat Tecia Torres.
The “Tiny Tornado” also lost to Namajunas but more tellingly, Jessica Andrade, who is probably the third-best gal in the division after knocking around Claudia Gadelha last September. That means Torres is probably going to remain in the middle of the pack and it’s not like we’ve seen anything spectacular in her eight trips to the Octagon. She’s gone to a decision in 11 of her 12 fights and there’s just no way she’s going to outpoint Jedrzejczyk in a three-round contest. Since they aren’t friends and haven’t crossed paths while sharing space at American Top Team (ATT), inside information is unlikely.
Torres is a talented striker who is well versed in both karate and kickboxing. But she comes into this bout with a five-inch disadvantage in both height and reach. Against Jedrzejczyk, a five-time IFMA Muay Thai amateur world champion, that’s a death sentence. She could, in theory, fall back on her serviceable wrestling, but Jedrzejczyk has a takedown defense of 81 percent, compared to an abysmal 43 percent for Torres. Both combatants can do three rounds without breaking a sweat and that pretty much says it all: there just aren’t any areas where Torres is better. Jedrzejczyk has defeated Andrade (No. 2), Gadelha (No. 3), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (No. 4), and Carla Esparza (No. 6). As for Torres, her biggest win to date came over the No. 7-ranked Michelle Waterson, her only victory over a Top 10 fighter, and her run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 was underwhelming, at best.
Torres is tough, no question about it, but she’s going to take a beating en route to a pretty decisive loss on the scorecards.
Final prediction: Jedrzejczyk def. Torres by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Olivier “The Canadian Gangster” Aubin-Mercier (11-2) vs. Alexander “The Great” Hernandez (9-1)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier has continued to fly under the radar after coming up short in the finale of TUF: “Nations” back in early 2014. Since then, “The Canadian Gangster” has gone 7-1 with five violent finishes. That said, his destruction of Evan Dunham at UFC 223 — his fourth straight win — was the first time in his professional career that he’s ended a fight by way of knockout. I guess when you have eight submissions in 11 wins, it doesn’t matter if you can land the one-hitter quitter. Conversely, the 29 year-old Canadian has never been stopped in his career but somehow has failed to crack the Top 15 of his division.
I don’t know if that will change with a victory over the unheralded by extremely dangerous Alexander Hernandez, who made a smashing debut — literally — with his first UFC appearance back in March, demolishing lightweight veteran Beneil Dariush with one terrifying punch. What I like about “The Great” is his ability to finish the fight both on the feet as well as on the ground, evidenced by four knockouts against two submissions. I don’t want to get too excited, as we’ve only seen him compete once under the UFC banner, but he certainly didn’t seem too concerned with Octagon jitters his first time out.
Aubin-Mercier is a southpaw but gives up two inches in reach. I want to say that he’s faced stiffer competition across his four years in UFC but to be honest, some of the names on his resume are not that far off from the regional competition Hernandez has been knocking around on the local circuit. It’s hard to make a convincing case for either fighter because they cancel each other out in just about every category. “The Canadian Gangster” is a two-time junior national champion in Judo whereas “The Great” was a decorated high school wrestler. Both have serious ground skills though Hernandez likely has the edge in power. Will it be enough to make it two straight in UFC? Probably not, but this fight will still be too close to call, even after three rounds of back-and-forth action.
Final prediction: Aubin-Mercier def. Hernandez by split decision
There you have it.
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