Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer
UFC newcomer, Sean Spencer, is stepping in as a replacement for Magnus Cedenblad, who pulled out of the bout due to injury. He comes into this fight with half the professional experience of Natal, but does possess the technical striking to hold his own in this fight. Spencer has two wins by submission, but his grappling is the weaker part of his game, but he possess great takedown defense, as long as his conditioning holds up. The UFC newcomer will put up a fight, but Natal will eventually get him down if he so chooses, but if he wants to stand toe to toe, Natal will have a slight advantage on the feet as well.
Pick : Rafael Natal
Mike Stumpf vs. Pascal Krauss
Despite a 17-1 amateur boxing career, the majority of Krauss’ professional MMA wins have come by submission. Krauss is only a blue belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so Stumpf may have the grappling advantage, and he will definitely look to take this fight to the ground. Although he isn’t afraid to throw, Stumpf’s striking is a little wide and creates opportunities for a technical boxer to counter. Krauss’ grappling should be good enough to avoid the ground game and force Stumpf in a striking bout, which Krauss should come out on top.
Pick : Pascal Krauss
Mike Russow vs. Shawn Jordan
I’m still scratching my head as to why certain MMA websites have Russow ranking in the top ten of the heavyweight division. Are you kidding me? Russow defeated Jon Madsen and John-Olav Einemo before losing to Fabricio Werdum, how does that give him top ten credentials? Russow is a talented grappler with submission skills, but lacks in the stand up, giving a significant striking advantage to Jordan. However, this is no striker vs. grappler match, as Jordan is a skilled wrestler and will avoid the take down attempts of Russow, even if Jordan chooses to keep the fight standing. Jordan is incredibly athletic for a heavyweight, and conditioning could be a factor for Russow, so if the fight goes the distance, there‘s just one more edge for Jordan. The biggest factor is the striking, if Fabricio Werdum was able to stop Russow with just his strikes, then Jordan will most certainly do the same, as he possess even more power in his punches than Werdum.
Pick : Shawn Jordan
Simeon Thoresen vs. David Mitchell
Mitchell has strong Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is novice level. Thoresen’s striking may not be anything special, but he should be able to get the best on Mitchell on the feet, but more importantly, Thoresen is also and skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter himself. Of his seventeen wins, Thoresen has won fifteen of them by submission, so if the ground game is a wash, the winner will be the better striker, Thoresen.
Pick : Simeon Thoresen
Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
Matyshenko is a true veteran and a great wrestler, but Bader has too many advantages in this fight to end up on the losing end. He’s a better striker and most likely has the better cardio and wrestling. Age may also play a factor, which is another advantage for Bader. Experience will always help in a fight, but Matyushenko ‘s best days are behind him and he won’t have what it takes to defeat a top ten light heavyweight.
Pick : Ryan Bader
Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki
Guida’s cardio is phenomenal, so I doubt his cut to featherweight will affect his conditioning. Guida may be the best at smothering his opponent while inside their guard, and stifling all chances to use Jiu-Jitsu. If he can do the same in this fight, it will shut down Hioki’s entire offense. Guida is too skilled to get caught in a submission from Hioki’s guard, and Hioki will not be able to take Guida down and establish any dominate positions. If Guida uses his striking in reverse to keep the fight standing, Guida will also have an advantage in the striking. The only way Hioki can emerge victorious if by submitting Guida which I don’t see happening.
Pick : Clay Guida
TJ Grant vs. Matt Wiman
After Wiman’s submission win over Paul Sass, people will be thinking twice before picking against him. Wiman spent most of the fight defending Sass’ submission attempts, so it’s very possible that Wiman can be submitted, and Grant has an excellent submission game as well. Unlike Sass, Grant has wrestling and striking skills to go along with it. We’re talking about a fighter who submitted Shane Roller and beat in a stand up war. Wiman is a good wrestler with submission skills, but not quite as well rounded as Grant, and having more tools increases the change of victory.
Pick : TJ Grant
Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas
The analysis for this fight is pretty simple, If Lamas gets the fight to the ground, he will win, if Koch keeps the fight standing, Koch will win. The million dollar question is whether or not Lamas will succeed in taking Koch down. The long layoff for Koch is concerning, but he was actively training for bouts at UFC 143, 149, and 153, but injury prevented these fights from taking place. Lamas is coming off the biggest win of his career in defeating Hatsu Hioki by decision, but he never had to worry about out struck on the feet. Koch’s striking is light years ahead of Hioki’s and this will pose a whole new problem for Lamas, as Koch was so able to avoid the ground game in his fights with good grapplers such as Raphael Assuncao and Jonathan Brookins. He’s finished three of his last four fights, and has only been defeated by elite featherweight and powerhouse wrestler, Chad Mendes. Lamas doesn’t possess Mendes’ level of wrestling, and therefore, will have an extremely difficult time getting Koch down where Lamas will have the advantage. It’s more likely that Koch will use his superior striking and footwork to keep this fight standing, where he will win there exchanges and possibly even finish the fight via knockout.
Pick : Erik Koch
Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis
Both fighters possess excellent technical striking, as well as proficient submission skills, so this fight could easily go either way. This fight will play out as a technical striking battle, since Pettis doesn’t posses the wrestling to secure a takedown, and Cerrone will most likely try to keep this fight standing and use his reach advantage. Cerrone’s striking has tightened up after his loss to Nate Diaz, and he has more power in his strikes, so overall, Cerrone has a slight advantage that will win him a decision, and probably fight of the night.
Pick : Donald Cerrone
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira
Not too long ago, Jackson was considered to be in the top three of the UFC’s light heavyweight division, but he’s slowly been working his way off the top ten list. Teixeira on the other hand, has annihilated his competition and this fight determine if he will be a challenger for the title in the near future. It’s rare to come across a fighter a well rounded as Teixeira, he’s a skilled striker that possess massive aggression and power; just ask Fabio Maldonado. As skilled as he is on the feet, he possess even better grappling, something that will be a hole in Jackson’s game. Although his knockout power and heavy slams pose a problem for another fighter, Jackson’s style is rather one dimensional. He rarely utilizes kicks, knees, or elbows; making it easier for an elite fighter like Teixeira to predict his striking and avoid damage. As we’ve seen in his fights with Forrest Griffin, Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, and Ryan Bader; Jackson isn’t the same fighter when he’s on his back. Teixeira will have no problem getting the fight to the ground and quickly advancing his position due to Jackson’s lack of grappling. Teixeira will achieve and hold a strong full mount from which he’ll rain down punches until there is an opening for a submission.
Pick : Glover Teixeira
Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson
Dodson is probably the quickest fighter that Johnson has ever faced, so it may be significantly harder for Johnson to get the takedown if he chooses to attempt. Even if Johnson is unsuccessful on the majority of his takedown attempts, he still posses strong kickboxing skills, and can hold his own on the feet with anyone in the division. Dodson defeatedTJ Dillashaw and Jussier da Silva via TKO, however both fighters are primarily grapplers and Dodson had a remarkable striking advantage. Johnson is equally as quick, so the chances of Dodson landing that one shot to end the fight are slim. Dodson’s striking looked tentative in his bouts with Jussier da Silva and Tim Elliot. In fact, many fans thought Elliot should have gotten the nod from the judges in that fight. Neither fighter will finish the other, but Johnson, as the more well rounded fighter, will do enough to win a decision, and retain his flyweight belt.
Pick : Demetrious Johnson
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek