Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight veterans Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Sam Alvey will throw down this Saturday (Sept. 22, 2018) at UFC Fight Night 137 inside Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
It’s been nearly two years since Nogueira last stepped into the Octagon. That fight was a complete disaster — UFC thought it wise for some unknown reason to match the then-40 year old with a Top 5-ranked fighter in his prime. Though he hasn’t fought very consistently, Nogueira has only lost to ranked opposition in recent years. Alvey and a few other Middleweights realized that Light Heavyweight is a division filled with fading, fragile older fighters. As such, he jumped ship to 205 pounds, and the results has been strong: A pair of victories and Top 15 ranking.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Record: 22-8
Key Wins: Rashad Evans (UFC 156), Alistair Overeem (Pride FC Critical Countdown, Pride FC 29), Patrick Cummins (UFC 198), Tito Ortiz (UFC 140)
Key Losses: Ryan Bader (UFC Fight Night 100, UFC 119), Mauricio Rua (UFC 190, Pride Critical Countdown 2005), Phil Davis (UFC Fight Night 24)
Keys to Victory: “Lil Nog” is a legendary fighter from the Pride FC era, famous for his slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu and sharp boxing. To some extent, he’s the same fighter he’s always been, albeit less of an athlete given his age.
I do not favor Nogueira against any Light Heavyweight who possesses a mild mix of athleticism and knockout power. Luckily, while Alvey certainly hits hard, “Smile’n” is utterly devoid of athleticism. Indeed, Alvey has just about one punch: The right hook from Southpaw. Generally, he waits as long as necessary for his opponent to over-commit before slamming him with said punch, which usually results in a knockout. If Alvey never finds a home for the strike, he tends to lose.
Nogueira is also a Southpaw, and he’s a much better boxer than Alvey. If he’s smart, he’ll make this a terribly boring fight by hanging back and sticking Alvey with the jab for 15 straight minutes. Nogueira may be old, but any fighter smart enough not to walk directly into a counter shot is certainly capable of defeating Alvey.
Sam Alvey
Record: 33-10 (1)
Key Wins: Gian Villante (UFC Fight Night 131), Nate Marquardt (UFC on FOX 23), Dan Kelly (UFC Fight Night 65), Alex Nicholson (TUF Latin America 3 Finale)
Key Losses: Thales Leites (UFC Fight Night 108), Derek Brunson (UFC Fight Night 73), Elias Theodorou (UFC Fight Night 89), Ramazan Emeev (UFC Fight Night 118)
Keys to Victory: Outside of his notoriously heavy right hook, Alvey’s main attributes are toughness and some very solid takedown defense. When not landing his favorite counter, Alvey is notoriously low volume, although he’ll occasionally kick the inside of the lead leg or begin a combination with his cross.
This is very likely to be a classic Alvey fight where he’s losing until he isn’t. Nogueira definitely has the boxing skill to out-work Alvey at range like many others have, but he doesn’t have the durability to make a single mistake. If Alvey connects with a clean counter, the fight is likely over.
As much as I criticize Alvey, you don’t score 19 knockout wins by accident.
Still, it would greatly behoove Alvey to up the activity at range if only a bit. He needs to keep the fight close enough that Nogueira feels pressured to commit to more shots — that’s how the counter opens up. If Alvey isn’t throwing anything, Nogueira will have no reason to take any risk.
Bottom Line: This has the potential to be a true stinker.
For Nogueira, we’re essentially testing if the 42-year-old has anything left. If he can fight competently for three rounds and doesn’t evaporate at the first hard strike landed, he’s a class above Alvey technically. With a win, Nogueira’s role as crafty veteran of the division remains intact, and hopefully UFC doesn’t match him with any more young killers.
If Nogueira cannot ward off Alvey, it’s time to join his brother in retirement.
Alvey fights are either beyond terrible or a quick knockout, and luckily he fights so frequently that he’s racked up a number of stoppages inside the Octagon. I highly doubt that Alvey emerges as a contender in his new division — Light Heavyweight has not fallen so far just yet — but Alvey’s consistency is valuable to a division that desperately needs active fighters.
As such, I don’t expect Alvey’s position to change much win or lose.
At UFC Fight Night 137, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will return opposite Sam Alvey. Which fighter will remain standing when the dust settles?