UFC Vegas 92: Best betting props, parlays and picks

UFC Vegas 92 goes live this weekend (Sat., May 18, 2024) with the ever popular Edson Barboza meeting Lerone Murphy in the main event. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC Vegas 92 is on tap for this Saturday (May 18, 2024) at the UFC APEX facility in Enterprise, Nevada. The main event features Brazilian sniper Edson Barboza lacing it up for his 36th pro fight. His opponent inside the APEX’s small cage is undefeated British prospect Lerone Murphy. The remainder of the card resembles very much what you’d expect the UFC to counter-program an undisputed heavyweight boxing event with. The co-main sees Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris throw down in the Welterweight division. There’s also the Rock’s favourite fighter Themba Gorimbo meeting Ramiz Brahimaj, also at Welterweight.

The “Prelims” are headlined by the somewhat hyped Light Heavyweight Oumar Sy. He has a short notice replacement fighter in the form of Tuco Tokkos to contend with. Also on the “Prelims” is Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves and Emily Ducote vs. Vanessa Demopoulos.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card, and we’ve got odds for the fights below.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 92 Main Card Money Line Odds

Edson Barboza (+120) vs. Lerone Murphy (-142)

Edson Barboza is the latest fighter in his late 30s to occupy a main card slot for the UFC. And he’ll be hoping to do what fellow veterans (Alexandre Pantoja, Jose Aldo, Anthony Smith and Derrick Lewis) have done lately and send a young(er) challenger home with a bruised record, ego and face. Barboza’s opponent is no spring chicken. Lerone Murphy is 32, but he’s only got 14 fights to his name. Murphy is undefeated in his career, though he’s never faced anyone who has the kind of respect on their name that Barboza has.

Murphy’s UFC wins are decisions against Josh Culibao, Gabriel Santos and Douglas Silva de Andrade. He has two stoppages in the Octagon, a knee versus Makwan Amirkhani in 2021 (check it out here) and some ground and pound on Ricardo Ramos in 2020. His UFC debut was a draw opposite Khabib’s mate Zubaira Tukhugov.

Barboza’s fought everyone at Lightweight and fair number of decent Featherweights, too. He’s on a two fight winning streak currently with wins over Sodiq Yusuff and Billy Quarantillo. He lost to Bryce Mitchell before that and was stopped by Giga Chikadze in 2021 (see that here). Chikadze is one of only four men to stop Barboza. The others are Justin Gaethje, Kevin Lee (due to a cut), prime Tony Ferguson and Jamie Varner (back in the dark ages).

Given Barboza’s accomplishments (both historic and recent) I’m a little surprised to see him as the underdog here. I expect his odds will come down throughout the week as more folks who remember him ending Terry Etim jump at the chance of plus money on one of their favorite fighters.

Barboza deserves more than sentimental money, though. He’s also got height and reach on Murphy. He lands more significant strikes than Murphy does, though he does absorb more, too (which may be thanks to his strength of schedule over the past decade). Barboza also has incredible takedown defense and BJJ skills that he rarely gets to show off.

Murphy is well-rounded and defensively solid on the feet. He’s also faster and more athletic than Barboza. However, we’ve never seen how he reacts to a main event booking. I’d rather take the longish odds on a vet who has been here before and is not exactly facing a super prospect in his division.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Khaos Williams (-130) vs. Carlston Harris (+110)

Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris both looked like guys who could have been somebody after their first few fights in UFC. However, both were given tough match-ups and lost to guys who right now are somebodies in UFC’s Welterweight division. Williams’ narrative shifting loss was a decision to Michel Pereira (see what went down here). Whereas Harris lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov by spinning hook kick (check it out).

Both Williams and Harris are heavy handed. Williams has much higher output than Harris, though — landing almost twice the amount of significant strikes per minute than Harris does.

Harris may not have as much violence or activity in his locker, but he makes up for it with a more well-rounded game which includes takedowns and submission threat (he took out Jeremiah Wells with an Anaconda Choke last time out).

However, he might have a hard time getting Williams down to show us any of that threat. Williams has excellent takedown defense (80%).

I like Williams as the favourite here and see him winning the exchanges with Harris, while also being able to avoid being dragged down to where he’s less comfortable.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Themba Gorimbo (-142) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+120)

Themba Gorimbo, who was famously gifted a house by Dwayne Johnson, is the favorite in his match with Ramiz Brahimaj. Brahimaj is coming off of a two-year layoff due to a spinal injury. The MMA Gods might like the fairy-tale aspect of Brahimaj returning from such a devastating injury to claim an underdog victory (likely via his dangerous submission game). However, a realist mustn’t look past Gorimbo’s size, athleticism, striking and wrestling advantages in the match-up.

Gorimbo has a five inch reach advantage over Brahimaj and he should be able to keep his opponent at range and prevent this fight from going somewhere he can be submitted.

I think Gorimbo will be able to win with either a big KO (like this) or a judges’ decision via a tepid kickboxing match, perhaps with takedowns punctuating the end of each round. I’d pick these options if Brahimaj had been active lately, but given Brahimaj’s time away I’m even more confident in Gorimbo.

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Adrian Yanez (-380) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+300)

This feels like a loser leaves town match with both Adrian Yanez and Vinicius Salvador coming off two losses. The massive disparity in odds might be because Yanez lost his last two via TKO (leg kicks vs. Jonathan Martinez and a ground and pound to Rob Font). Salvador’s losses were decisions, to the far less heralded CJ Vergara and Victor Altamirano.

I wouldn’t touch this bout. It could be Fight of the Night with both men able to land, and hurt the other, on command. If you like to live dangerously, you might put something on Yanez to land the KO blow before Salvador does.

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Luana Pinheiro (+120) vs. Angela Hill (-142)

Angela Hill has been inconsistent as of late, going 3-3 in her last six. Though she is coming off a unanimous decision win over Denise Gomes on enemy territory. Say what you want about her record (11-13 in the UFC), you can’t deny that Hill has fought some of the best fighters available to her. Her three most recent losses are against Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos. The wins sprinkled in there include victories over Emily Ducote and Lupita Godinez.

Luana Pinheiro has had a weird run in the UFC, winning via an illegal upkick DQ in her debut (see that here). She’s also dropped a split decision to Michelle Waterson and was spin kick KO’d by Amanda Ribas (watch that here).

Pinheiro will be looking to take Hill down in the fight, but she might struggle to do so. She was 0-5 in takedowns against Waterson. Waterson’s takedown defense is 70%. Hill’s is 75% (and she was able to stuff all but one of Godinez’s takedown attempts on her last year).

So I’m expecting Hill to fight her fight here and get one of her trademark unanimous decision victories.

UFC Vegas 92 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Victor Martinez (+360) vs. Tom Nolan (-470)

Tom Nolan is the biggest favorite on the card, despite getting TKO’d in his UFC proper debut in January (see that here). That loss came after an impressive Contender Series finish for the Aussie. Victor Martinez has a similar story. He won a unanimous decision on the Contender Series in 2021 and then lost his first proper UFC fight via TKO (against Jordan Leavitt in 2023). The knock on Martinez here is that he’s been out for over a year and only fought twice since 2019.

Tamires Vidal (+270) vs. Melissa Gatto (-340)

Tamires Vidal was supposed to fight Hailey Cowan here. Melissa Gatto came in on short notice, moving up to bantamweight for this fight. Despite coming in late, and outside of her usual weight class, Gatto is the heavy favorite. Both women are coming off losses and both women’s last UFC wins were TKOs over opponents who aren’t with the company anymore.

Oumar Sy vs. Tuco Tokkos

At this time of writing there were no odds released for this match-up. Sy will certainly be a heavy favorite versus his short notice replacement, though.

Abus Magomedov (-285) vs. Warlley Alves (+230)

Here’s another bout between two fighters in desperate searches of a win. Both Abus Magomedov and Warlley Alves are best remembered for their past opponents. Magomedov had an unexpected main event slot last year against Sean Strickland, which he lost and resulted in a title shot for Strickland. Fans of a certain age will remember Alves stopping pre-gimmick Colby Covington with a guillotine choke on the UFC 194 undercard in 2015.

Magomedov will have a good size/reach advantage over Alves here, who is on a three fight losing skid. I fancy his chances to get a finish over Alves, who has been TKO’d twice in the last two years and was submitted by Randy Brown in 2019.

Piera Rodriguez (-218) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (+180)

Piera Rodriguez is a comfortable favourite here. The only blemish on her pro career is an armbar loss to Gillian Robertson. Ariane Carnelossi has been more up and down, with losses to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez book-ending wins over Istela Nunes and Na Liang. She does have a body kick KO win over Ketlen Souza from her days on the Brazilian regional circuit, though. Carnelossi’s 8% takedown defense means she will probably spend a lot of this fight on the ground.

Alatengheili (+130) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (-155)

Team Nogueira’s Kleydson Rodrigues was choked out by Farid Basharat last year. His last two UFC bookings have seen him miss weight, first in a win over Shannon Ross and then in a bout against Tatsuro Taira that was cancelled. The Mongolian Knight is coming off a loss to Chris Gutierrez. However, he’s a four time winner against UFC competition.

Vanessa Demopoulos (+270) vs. Emily Ducote (-340)

Former Invicta champ Emily Ducote is 2-2 in UFC with wins over Ashley Yoder and Jessica Penne. The underdog Vanessa Demopoulos beat former Invicta champ Kanako Murata last time out. She also has a win over former Invicta champ Jinh Yu Frey under her belt. Ducote is a decent favorite here likely due to her activity and pressure.

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UFC Vegas 92 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 92 card …

Two-fight parlay Angela Hill to beat Luana Pinheiro and Abus Magomedov to beat Warrley Alves (+130)

I really like Angela Hill in this fight. I don’t think Luana Pinheiro has the tools to beat Hill in a kickboxing match and I think Hill’s experience and takedown defence will prevent this fight from being anything other than a kickboxing match. I believe Abus Magomedov has suffered from rough match-making thus far, having fought Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho in two of his first three UFC contests. Warrley Alves feels like a bit of a gimme for him here. I think Magomedov will be able to harass Alves from range and might be able to submit him late on in the fight.

Piera Rodriguez to beat Ariane Carnelossi via decision (+100)

Piera Rodriguez will be taking Ariane Carnelossi down at will. However, I don’t she will be able to parlay those takedowns into a fight ending sequence. Just like with Sam Hughes and Kay Hansen, I think the takedowns will score her lots of points with the judges. And we’ll see that when the scores are read at the end of this one.

Themba Gorimbo to beat Ramiz Brahimaj via KO/TKO/DQ (+275)

I like Themba Gorimbo’s range and I think we could see a repeat of his win over Pete Rodriguez. Brahimaj has never been legitimately stopped in his career, but I worry about his long injury lay-off and how many hits he’s absorbed during UFC competition (4.08 significant strikes per minute).

Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan to finish in less than a minute (+500)

This is a weird fight so it might have a weird finish. Tom Nolan won in the Contender Series at 1:23 and then lost to Nikolas Motta at 1:03. Martinez is eight years older than Nolan. Martinez has fought twice since 2019. Nolan’s entire pro career (eight fights) has taken place over that time. Nolan will be bigger, longer, faster and more athletic when they meet and I think he’ll be too much for Martinez and there’s a shot this thing is over fast.

UFC Vegas 92 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 92 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).

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