WEC Bantamweight Title Fight – Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez
Odds: ( -240 Cruz /+190 Benavidez )
In the main event, Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz will defend his crown against top contender Joseph Benavidez in a hotly-anticipated rematch. Cruz earned the unanimous decision win in their first fight, a highly competitive bout. Both men are coming off huge wins, with Cruz having captured the title from Brian Bowles and Benavidez having bested former champion Miguel Torres as well as tough competitor Rani Yahya, so this is one of the biggest rematches of the year, this time with the title on the line.
The challenger, Benavidez, is a submission expert with a well-rounded game whose only career defeat came at the hands of Cruz. What makes Benavidez so dangerous is that he is a very prolific finisher with an amazing rate of submission victories as well as knockout power in his hands. Only 2 of his 12 victories have been by decision, and considering the quality of opposition he has faced recently that is especially impressive. The big question mark for Benavidez is his takedown defense. He held his own standing against Cruz in their first contest, but Cruz’s ability to put him on his back made the difference on the scorecards. Benavidez is good enough to pull off a submission from the bottom, but he is going to have to keep Cruz from dictating when and if the fight goes to the ground if he wants to avoid a repeat performance.
Cruz, whose only career loss came to former 145 pound titleholder Urijah Faber, is a very well-rounded fighter with solid wrestling and a bruising top game. He looked dominant in his last fight, a win over champion Brian Bowles. The problem for Cruz is that he is not as adept a finisher as Benavidez is, and in a title bout that is going to last for five rounds his inability to put opponents away is going to be problematic, especially against a guy with submissions as slick as Benavidez’s. The key to Cruz’s victory last time was his takedowns and his wrestling, and I think that is just as true as ever. If he can consistently put Benavidez on his back and play a safe top game there is not much question that he can grind out a decision. The question is whether or not he can implement that game plan again and whether he can spend five full rounds controlling Benavidez without getting rocked or submitted.
Cruz is clearly a formidable fighter, but I think that Benavidez is in a great position to avenge his loss. The two are fairly evenly matched on the feet, although Benavidez has more knockout power in his hands for sure. Cruz is clearly the better wrestler, but Benavidez has very good submissions and in a five round fight that can be a huge deal, as Anderson Silva proved recently against Chael Sonnen. I think most of this fight will look like the first one, with Cruz scoring points with takedowns and the two engaging in fairly even striking exchanges, I just don’t think Cruz can go 25 minutes mistake-free. Benavidez is a much more dangerous fighter in terms of finishing fights, and isn’t coming off injuries like Cruz is. I think Benavidez gets controlled early on, but eventually capitalizes on a mistake and earns the submission win and the title.
Prediction: Joseph Benavidez via fourth round rear naked choke.
- Bet on the UnderDog Benavidez @+190 for the Win and new champion.
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