WEC 51 Predictions

Speed kills. That’s about all I need to say here, as the fastest Featherweight on Earth takes on a two-legged glacier in Manny Gamburyan. Aldo simply brings too much depth of skill in the striking department, and while we haven’t seen much of his matwork, what we have seen makes me think he’s not kidding when he talks about his BJJ being better than his stand-up. This leaves few outs in a five round match for the grinding style of Gamburyan, and unless he can bring one of those hammers to bear on Aldo, I see him getting torn apart standing for as long as this fight lasts. The payout may be meager at -600, but easy money is easy money, and I wouldn’t pass up a hearty bet here.

Miguel Torres – Mike Hammersmith -430 on Bookmaker)

Miguel Torres will look to reestablish himself in the division he once dominated, and having lost two in a row, finds himself against the well-rounded Charlie Valencia in a tune-up fight before bigger and better things. While Valencia is a decent all-around fighter, he’s fighting the king of all-around fighters in Torres, who’s equal parts murderous ground game and murderous stand-up game, with some murderous clinch game to smooth out those transitions. Valencia just doesn’t have anything to offer Torres, and while the odds aren’t fantastic at -430, this makes for a great match-up to parlay with the above Aldo vs. Gamburyan, or just as a way of gaining some low risk scratch.

 
 
Tyler Toner – Mike Hammersmith (+160 on Bookmaker)

Another great stand-up bout shuffled to the undercard, well-rounded fighter Diego Nunes will fight one of the biggest surprises in the WEC in Tyler Toner. Having fought nearly blind for his entire career, Toner was forced to get corrective surgery before his bout with tough Hawaiian Brandon “The Viper” Visher, and came into the fight with an ability that had been locked away by his handicap. Executing some of the best functional striking I’ve seen in recent years, Toner destroyed the heavy favorite in Visher and is poised to move into fringe contendership if he can make it past Nunes. Not to be outdone, Nunes showed he has some surprises as well in his last outing; hustling Rafael Assuncao with a combination of outside striking and takedowns that saw him to a split decision win.

This is a very important fight for both men, as it’ll land the winner deep inside the Featherweight division, and how this plays out really depends on how Nunes approaches it. If Nunes chooses to stand with Toner, I don’t think he’ll be able to avoid the multiple-angled attacks from the American, and may find himself on the wrong end of a vicious knockout. Nunes path to victory is therefore by takedowns, but Toner’s takedown defense and bottom game make that a dicey proposition as well.

In a 50/50 fight, Toner has the conditioning and KO power to hurt Nunes badly in this match, but Nunes takedowns and standing ability can save him here if he’s smart about it. While this is far from sure money, Toner comes in as a surprisingly heavy underdog at +160 and makes for a great pay out on a coin-flip bet.
 
 
Jamie Varner – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on SportBet)

I simply do not see this fight happening any differently than their first fight.  Neither fighter has really improved, although both Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone didn’t exactly have a ton of room for improvement.  Both fighters are going to bring their usual bread and butter to tonight’s fight:  Varner’s effective wrestling and exceptional boxing versus Cerrone’s dangerous guard game and dynamic Muay Thai.  Both fighters are seasoned and tough, so neither Varner or Cerrone have the edge there.

Varner’s take downs and ground and pound did wonders in the first fight, and it should be no different here.  Look for Varner to set up take downs with his hands and punish Cerrone while in his guard.  Varner is tough to finish, so he is not going to be as susceptible as most to Cerrone’s attacking guard.  Although Cerrone has the tools to beat anyone in the Lightweight division, Varner has the edge here and is a good bet at his current odds.