WEC 53 – Henderson VS. Pettis takes place tonight in Glendale, Arizona. The final WEC card gets two title matches, as WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson takes on #1 contender Anthony Pettis, and WEC Bantamweight king Dominick Cruz squares off against a skilled Scott Jorgensen.
I want to take this space to reflect on the WEC. I have watched the WEC since they’ve been on Versus and have thoroughly enjoyed the product they put forward. On many occasions, the WEC cards would blow the UFC cards out of the water based on excitement. It is a shame that the WEC didn’t amass more of a following, but there are a lot of positives with the lighter weight fighters getting assimilated into the UFC. WEC, you will be missed!
As per MMAMoneyLine routine, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be breaking down our best bets for the WEC 53 card. If you are planning on betting on this event, make sure to keep current on WEC 53 odds and take a look at who the MMA world has winning over at MMAMoneyLine’s WEC 53 Pros’ Picks.
Bart Palaszewski– Mike Hammersmith (+135 on Bookmaker)
Two of the toughest bastards in the division will scrap in this potential classic. Bart Palaszewski is one of the most experienced fighters in the WEC, and while he’s not a master of any craft, he brings more than enough problems to make any fight a hard one. Kamal Shalorus is somewhat similar in nature, as a simple yet effective fighter with world-class wrestling and deadly haymaker punches. This is a coin-toss fight, depending on if Shalorus wants to work his wrestling here or just trade with Palaszewski. If this one stays on the feet for long though, expect Palaszewski to get his opponent’s timing down and start bloodying up the Iranian fighter, leading to a late TKO or decision win.
Donald Cerrone – Mike Hammersmith (-340 on Sportsbook)
Christmas comes early here, as our best bet of the month will pay off those soaring credit card bills. Coming off a tremendous win in a rematch with Jamie Varner, Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone looked like a new man, using his iron chin, high-level striking and new-found wrestling to dismantle the former champion. While his opponent Chris “The Polish Hammer” Horodecki has done well for himself early in his career, he finds that a lack of power standing and limited options on the ground make him a gimmie fight for the muay thai assassins in WEC’s Lightweight division. Expect more of the same, as Cerrone crushes Horodecki on the feet with a quick KO finish, and a huge payday for us all.
Jamie Varner – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Sportsbook)
Despite what people think of Varner, he is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the planet, with true technical boxing, high-level wrestling, and the conditioning to grind fighters to dust. Although he’s had a rough patch with a bullshit draw against Kamal Shalrous and a beating at the hands of Donald Cerrone, he will have a chance to shine as he returns to the UFC. For all the skills that Shane Roller brings to the table, he’s largely been unable to get a game plan working for him in any of the fights he’s had, and with little to fill out his wrestling, finds himself constantly in trouble in fights. Varner is a cerebral fighter with the wrestling to slow or stop Roller in his attempt to make this a grappling match, and in the striking department, this is a no-brainer. Combine this with Roller’s suspect conditioning, and Varner should be able to coast to a decision at worst, or knock Roller out early in this bout.
Kamal Shalorus– MMAMoneyLine (-165 on Sportsbook)
A fight that looks close on paper is not as close in reality. Quick rundown on Kamal Shalorus: world class wrestling (that he rarely uses), extremely powerful striking (without much technique), and ungodly strong. Quick rundown on Bart Palazewski: the consummate MMA vet, good striking, good grappling, solid chin. Looks close right?
The problem is that Palaszewski is going to have to stand in front of Shalorus. Kamal’s striking is novice level, but he hits like a damn garbage truck. Shalorus has excellent takedown defense that he showed in the Varner fight and will be too strong to get clinched or put up against the cage by Palaszewski.
If Palaszewski wins this fight, he outpoints Shalorus for 3 rounds. It could happen, but the odds are against it. Shalorus was able to take Varner’s striking, and the former champ has some of the best boxing in the division. I fully assume Shalorus will leave his wrestling in the locker room, but I think his freak power will be enough to land one shot and call it a day.
Brad Pickett – MMAMoneyLine (-175 on Sportsbook)
Hey, it’s Ivan Menjivar! Good to see the vet fighting on the last WEC card. Unfortunately for him, he is fighting a monster in Brad Pickett. I was extremely impressed with Pickett’s victory over Demetrious Johnson (a guy who is also burning through the Bantamweight ranks). Pickett looked good against Jorgensen, but (like most) he did not have the wrestling to compete with the number one contender.
Both Pickett and Menjivar have similar skill sets: both guys can knock you out, submit you, grind you with wrestling. However, there are some points that should be made. Menjivar has had a pretty uneventful career of late, only having one fight since 2006. In addition, he is dropping a weight class to fight Pickett. Menjivar doesn’t have the MMA wrestling that Scott Jorgensen possesses, and anything but a world class grappler is in trouble against the Brit. I like Pickett here by decision.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Henderson/SUB/2
Cruz/UD
Cerrone/UD
Shalorus/KO/1
Zhang/TKO/2
Roller/SD
Wineland/UD
Pickett/UD
Castillo/KO/2
Barao/SUB/2
Lamas/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Shalorus – 1.5 u. at -165 on Sportsbook
Pickett – 1 u. at -165 on BetUS
Roller – .5 u. at +165 on Bodog