When Brock Lesnar came out around a -160 favorite against Cain Velasquez, many sharp MMA betters we knew where shocked. Not that they were expecting Brock to be -550 or anything, but for a guy coming off a defining victory like he had on Shane Carwin, and with more time to fully recover from his illness, and Lesnar being the one guy the public knows and bets heavily on more than anyone else in the UFC, -160 seemed off.
Even more surprising, the public was betting that line down, moving Brock to around -140 come fight time.
There is a general rule in sports betting: whatever the public is doing, bet against that.
So if the public moving the line down and the majority of money is coming on one side, take the other side.
Most savvy MMA betters we know bet the house on Lesnar. Whoops. To twist a Denny Green phrase, “Velasquez was not who we thought he was.” Mind you, MMA’ers have mad respect for Cain. He’s a worthy champ and then some. But this one wasn’t even close but for 10 seconds. Cain Velasquez: new UFC heavyweight champ.
In the other fights, Jake Shields overcame what many thought was a bad match-up and defeated Martin Kampmann via split decision. Shield’s line went from about -240 to -200, and for good reason. But he grinded out an impressive victory and will likely be a force at 170.
Vegas had the line right on Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz. Not a lot of movement, and it ended up going to decision for Hamill.
Looking ahead, UFC 122 won’t be a heavy betting card (many books only have one or two fights listed as of now). UFC 123 is the next big gamer one, with Machida currently -280 over Rampage. We’ll get odds on those cards up soon. Look for betting line previews in the coming weeks.
Photo Credit: Esther Lin for Fanhouse.