Tag: jimmiller

UFC on Versus 5: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThere’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessa…

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There’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessarily includes a confused few minutes of searching for Versus on the cable TV dial, let’s look at how oddsmakers see the action going down in Milwaukee.

Chris Lytle (-130) vs. Dan Hardy (even)

In his role as the guy you fight when you want to throw them bungalows and forget about the existence of takedowns altogether, Lytle has been pretty dependable. That’s good news for Hardy, who, after three straight losses, needs a win so bad he can feel it in his mohawk. We know Hardy can be outwrestled, but we also know Lytle isn’t likely to take that route. He’ll stand there and fling blows for as long as Hardy wants, regardless of whether it’s a good idea or not. We know Lytle is a skilled striker. What we have to wonder at this point is if he can stand up to Hardy’s power. The 36-year-old vet started to look his age a little bit in his last fight. He’s been eyeing retirement and a potential political run recently, while Hardy has no choice but to win. Kind of makes you think that the Brit might want/need this more.
My pick: Hardy. Based on past experience, Lytle will probably let him off the hook by ignoring the glaring weakness in his takedown defense. From there, youth and speed rule the day.

Ben Henderson (+145) vs. Jim Miller (-175)

We’re still figuring out just how well the top WEC lightweights stack up against the UFC regulars, but Henderson’s decision win over Mark Bocek was enough to tell us that he deserves to be taken seriously. However, there’s a big difference between edging out Bocek and hanging with Miller, who’s as underappreciated as any fighter in the UFC right now. The last time he lost a fight was to current top contender Gray Maynard, and that was in 2009. Since then he’s won seven straight, against quality opponents, and he’s finished more than half of them. Henderson is a decent striker with good grappling, but it’s hard to see where he holds significant advantages over Miller. This seems like Miller’s time to shine, and oddsmakers know it.
My pick: Miller. At -175 (meaning you’d need to wager $175 to win $100), you’re better off saving it for a parlay pick. Just don’t count on Henderson to be your underdog savior.

Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (even)

There’s a lot to like about Oliveira, even though, after his blatantly illegal knee on Nik Lentz, his understanding of the unified rules of MMA may not be one of them. But while he looked impressive right up to that point, just as he did against Efrain Escudero last September, he’s facing a different kind of opponent in Cerrone. “Cowboy” is just straight-up mean. He took a disturbing amount of joy in leg-kicking Vagner Rocha until he could no longer stand, and when forced to use it, he’s also got a pretty good submissions game. Oliveira had a strong start to his UFC career, but we have to face the fact that he’s seeing a big jump up in competition lately, especially with Miller and now Cerrone, and we don’t know for sure yet whether he’s ready for it.
My pick: Cerrone. It’s going to be a close one, and quite possibly the best fight on this card, but I think his experience and crowd/judge-pleasing style will make the difference.

Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+250)

This is one where oddsmakers seem to have zeroed in on the right guy, but are perhaps a little overly optimistic. On paper, Sadollah should beat Ludwig. But when you’re looking at an experienced kickboxer like “Bang” going up against a still pretty inexperienced fighter like Sadollah, I’m not sure I’d have the faith to go all the way to 3-1 on it. Yes, Sadollah looked impressive against DaMarques Johnson (who took the fight on very short notice) in March. And yes, his weakness is his wrestling, where Ludwig isn’t likely to take it. But any time you’re trading kicks and punches with a guy who has as many kickboxing bouts as Ludwig does, there’s always a chance for things to go wrong.
My pick: Sadollah, though I could never get on board with these odds. In fact, Ludwig might even be worth small action if you’re sick of playing the lottery, where you so rarely get a decent fight for your money.

Quick picks:

– Jim Hettes (-400) over Alex Caceras (+300). I know, you loved him as Bruce Leeroy on TUF, but Hettes appears to have the submission game that Caceras lacks, so don’t get suckered in here.

– Jacob Volkmann (+105) over Danny Castillo (-135). Volkmann is not terribly fun to watch, and his trash talk on Obama comes off like an ill-conceived Mr. Bean sketch, but he’s got this.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Hardy + Miller + Cerrone + Volkmann

 

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In UFC Lightweight Division, Many Contenders but No Clear Next After Maynard

Filed under: UFC, StrikeforceClay Guida beat Anthony Pettis on Saturday night. Of course he did. When it comes to MMA, Guida is an unrelenting energy field that shakes up everything in his path, and while he took a big step forward in his own career, h…

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Clay Guida beat Anthony Pettis on Saturday night. Of course he did. When it comes to MMA, Guida is an unrelenting energy field that shakes up everything in his path, and while he took a big step forward in his own career, he only served to further muck up the waters of the UFC lightweight division. As you probably know, before Saturday, Pettis was the No. 1 contender in waiting, and just needed to get past Guida at the TUF 13 Finale to keep his place in line. As often seems to be the case when fighters risk their shot at gold, he fell short, and now must rebuild his resume while his name falls out of the contenders’ conversation.

In a sport that is constantly looking forward, we always want to know who is next, and right now, that is a question with no answer. The only thing we know is that Gray Maynard is supposed to get the next title opportunity against Frankie Edgar, probably in the late summer or early fall.

But beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Much will depend on what happens between now and Edgar-Maynard III, whenever that might be. For example, Jim Miller is supposed to face Ben Henderson at the UFC on Versus show scheduled for August 14. Miller has won seven straight fights, including two finishes in a row. A win over Henderson would make it difficult to discount his chances, and even harder to say he doesn’t have the current best resume out of all the hopefuls.

Amazingly, the only two career losses of Miller (20-2) came against Edgar and Maynard, respectively, giving the UFC an easy storyline to push regardless of which man wins. But all that, of course, is dependent on Miller himself winning first. Given Henderson’s wrestling prowess and ability to stay out of submissions, that’s no sure thing.

Guida, of course, has his own case to make. He’s now won four in a row with his win over Pettis. While he received some criticism for his somewhat conservative performance in the win, to be fair we must note that Guida had finished three opponents in a row before that.

Now here’s the problem. Even if you say one of those guys is definitively above the other, either of them could lose before a date with the Edgar-Maynard winner ever gets made. As we noted, Miller’s already got an upcoming bout set up, and Guida might also take another fight while he’s waiting for the champ and No. 1 contender to finish off their trilogy. The UFC has cards to fill, and Guida isn’t exactly known for saying no to fights.

We don’t have a specific date for Edgar-Maynard because the champ is still recovering from a back injury, and so we can’t yet assume he’ll be ready to go, even by the fall. No one except Maynard is likely to sit around and wait for him, and even he only for so long. Until then, we’ll be forced to play the speculation game.

Aside from Miller and Guida, things get really interesting. Who else is in the running? Among UFC fighters, you’d have to say that Melvin Guillard — winner of four straight, and six of his last seven — is probably the next closest, while Dennis Siver — 6-1 in his last seven — also has an argument.

Other possibilities? How about Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez? With its recently announced Nick Diaz vs. Georges St-Pierre, champion vs. champion fight, the UFC opened a Pandora’s box, giving us free reign to speculate about these types of possibilities. If it is the best fight, or the fight people most want to see, the UFC will have no choice but to consider it. Given the depth of the division, it seems less likely than pulling Diaz into the octagon, but it’s not an impossibility.

So, to recap, as it stands in early June, Miller, Guida, Guillard, Siver and Melendez are the five likeliest challengers. But there are far too many variables involved in any decision about who’s next, making any guesswork premature. Instead, we’ll be forced to wait and see how things play out. The opportunity is there for the taking, and Guida just fired the latest shot, so it’s up to the rest of the hopefuls to respond or be left behind. Until then, we get to sit around, debate, and play amateur matchmaker. But that’s half the fun of our sport anyway. The lightweight division is suddenly the wild, wild west, a land of opportunity and possibility. Hitch a ride on your respective war wagon, but come armed with patience. It’s going to be a long and bumpy ride on the way to the gold rush.

 

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Dana White: Jim Miller Still Ahead of Clay Guida Despite Win Over Anthony Pettis

Filed under: UFC, FanHouse Exclusive, NewsClay Guida defeated former No. 1 contender Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision at Saturday’s TUF 13 Finale, but according to UFC president Dana White, the dominant win didn’t help “The Carpenter” secure a li…

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Clay Guida defeated former No. 1 contender Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision at Saturday’s TUF 13 Finale, but according to UFC president Dana White, the dominant win didn’t help “The Carpenter” secure a lightweight title shot.

White told MMA Fighting on Saturday that Jim Miller “is still ahead of [Guida]” in the organization’s lightweight rankings despite Guida’s win on Saturday night.

Miller (20-2) has won his last seven fights in a row. He is scheduled to meet Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5 on Aug. 14 in Milwaukee.

Current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar was scheduled to defend his title against Gray Maynard at last week’s UFC 130, but injuries suffered by both fighters forced the bout to be canceled. It has yet to be rescheduled, but White said last week that he hopes to rebook it in the fall.

Miller’s only two losses have come against Maynard and Edgar. The AMA Fight Club member lost to Maynard at UFC 96 in March 2009 and dropped a unanimous decision to Edgar at Reality Fighting 14 in November 2006.

 

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Yoshihiro Akiyama Out of UFC 128

Filed under: UFC, NewsFriday’s devastating earthquake in Japan has forced Yoshihiro Akiyama out of his scheduled bout at UFC 128 next week against Nate Marquardt. He will be replaced by Dan Miller.

The news was first reported by MMA Diehards, and the…

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Friday’s devastating earthquake in Japan has forced Yoshihiro Akiyama out of his scheduled bout at UFC 128 next week against Nate Marquardt. He will be replaced by Dan Miller.

The news was first reported by MMA Diehards, and the UFC confirmed the change quickly afterward at its official website.

UFC president Dana White initially reported on Twitter on Friday night that “Akiyama and his family are safe,” and that the Japanese fighter would be Stateside for the fight. But several hours later the news had changed.

“Yoshihiro Akiyama will not be able to participate at UFC 128 due to the tragedy in Japan,” White said in the UFC’s official statement.

After Year Off, Steve Lopez Gets Second Chance at UFC 119

Filed under: UFC, FanHouse ExclusiveThousands of fighters grind their way through regional promotions with the hope of one day getting a call from the UFC. For most, that call never comes.

For Steve Lopez, of South Bend, Ind., the call came a year ag…

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Thousands of fighters grind their way through regional promotions with the hope of one day getting a call from the UFC. For most, that call never comes.

For Steve Lopez, of South Bend, Ind., the call came a year ago to take a short-notice fight against Jim Miller at UFC 103. And it can be reasonably assumed that the daydream of winning his debut and starting the UFC ladder-climb went through his head.

He certainly couldn’t have expected the outcome of his fight against Miller. Throwing an ordinary, everyday jab, Lopez dislocated his left shoulder. His verbal submission came instantly, as did the groans from the fans in Dallas when they saw the obvious separation on the replays.