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Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4)
While the headliner is the more important fight in terms of rankings and title positioning, this matchup is the favorite for fight of the night and should be explosive from start to finish, which could come at any moment. Both Donald “ Cowboy” Cerrone and Jeremy Stephens are aggressive fighters who prefer to stand and strike. Both have been known to stay in the pocket and trade punches. Even to their own detriment. Both also find themselves in similar positions having lost to high ranking fighters in their last octagon appearance.
Stephens lost a close split decision to Anthony Pettis at UFC 136. A win over Pettis would have elevated him into the crowded top tier of 155 pound title contenders. The loss kept him just below that level where he has been stuck for years. Since 2009, Stevens has split his eight UFC appearances earning victories over Justin Bucholz, Sam Stout, Marcus Davis and Daniel Downs. In that same span, he has lost to Joe Lauzon, Gleison Tibau, Melvin Guillard and Pettis. That history establishes a clear trend of Stephens being unable to succeed against fighters at the peak of the lightweight division. He nearly broke that trend in his last fight and according to one of the three judges on that night, he did break the trend. He will look to build on that performance and finally obtain the signature win he has been seeking throughout his career. The matchup with Donald Cerrone offers that opportunity and the gameplan for Stephens should be similar to what we have seen with him in the past. His best weapons are his hands and he’ll look to use them to outbox Cerrone. While he doesn’t have the skill level required to repeat Nate Diaz’s recent performance against Cerrone, he will try to achieve the same results by keeping the pressure on Cerrone and outstriking him. Cerrone has never been knocked out but Jeremy Stephens has the power to be the first if Cerrone leaves him an opening.
Donald Cerrone is also coming off a loss to a top tier opponent but he was not as competitive in his fight with Diaz as Stephens was against Pettis. Cerrone was outboxed in a clinical performance by Nate Diaz, which probably says more about Diaz than it does about Cerrone. Cowboy has been one of the best lightweight fighters in the world over the last two years with his only clear losses coming to current UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz, who has been promised the winner of the upcoming championship bout between Henderson and Frankie Edgar. Cerrone has a more well rounded game than Stephens and he will look to capitalize on that in this fight. His standup features high level muay thai with great knees and kicks to go with his hands. He also possesses an underrated ground game but usually doesn’t show it because he prefers to fight on his feet. But if Stephens does decide to try to take Cerrone down, he will find himself in a dangerous guard. Cerrone is capable of from finishing from his back at any moment with a triangle or arm bar.
Cerrone is favored at -260 with Stephens at +200. Cerrone will have the upper hand wherever this fight takes place. If it stays on the feet, Cerrone’s muay thai is better than Stephens’ boxing and if it goes to ground, Cerrone has the clear grappling advantage. I don’t expect Cerrone to be able to finish Stephens but he should be able to batter him on the feet to win a unanimous decision.
-Alan Wells