(Quick Cat, now’s your chance! It’s literally your only chance!!)
Back when Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano were originally booked to fight following a coaching stint on TUF 18, the champion was being given something around 7-to-1 odds over the undefeated #1 contender. One ACL tear and a little over a year later, Rousey and Zingano have once again been booked to throw down — this time in the co-main event of UFC 184 in February. And if the early odds are any indication, Zingano is even deader than before.
While it’s true that “Alpha Cat” looked impressive in her come-from-behind TKO of Amanda Nunes at UFC 178, Rousey has been making mincemeat of so-called “top contenders” lately and appears to hold a definitive size advantage over Zingano to boot. What I’m saying is, if you add all these factors together, you wind up with an even bigger squash match that what already was. You wind up with Ronda Rousey being listed as a flabbergasting -1300 favorite over Zingano, which is exactly what happened when the gambling lines opened this morning.
So basically, Rousey should still wrap things up inside a minute despite the fact that Zingano is arguably her toughest challenge yet (she’ll be marketed that way, in any case). Are all the incredibly awkward interviews worth this, Cat? GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN.
We now go live to our gambling expert, Stephan Bonnar, for analysis…
(Quick Cat, now’s your chance! It’s literally your only chance!!)
Back when Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano were originally booked to fight following a coaching stint on TUF 18, the champion was being given something around 7-to-1 odds over the undefeated #1 contender. One ACL tear and a little over a year later, Rousey and Zingano have once again been booked to throw down — this time in the co-main event of UFC 184 in February. And if the early odds are any indication, Zingano is even deader than before.
While it’s true that “Alpha Cat” looked impressive in her come-from-behind TKO of Amanda Nunes at UFC 178, Rousey has been making mincemeat of so-called “top contenders” lately and appears to hold a definitive size advantage over Zingano to boot. What I’m saying is, if you add all these factors together, you wind up with an even bigger squash match that what already was. You wind up with Ronda Rousey being listed as a flabbergasting -1300 favorite over Zingano, which is exactly what happened when the gambling lines opened this morning.
So basically, Rousey should still wrap things up inside a minute despite the fact that Zingano is arguably her toughest challenge yet (she’ll be marketed that way, in any case). Are all the incredibly awkward interviews worth this, Cat? GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN.
We now go live to our gambling expert, Stephan Bonnar, for analysis…
I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.
Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.
It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.
I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.
Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.
It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.
On paper, Christian M’Pumbu is exactly the type of fighter who Rampage Jackson should have zero problems with — he’s as pure of a kickboxer as you’ll find in a major MMA promotion, who would rather stand and trade haymakers than clinch against the cage. Yet after watching Jackson’s promotional debut against Joey Beltran, Rampage at -450 is not even remotely worth the risk of an upset. Especially when you consider that Bellator is sort-of hoping for Rampage vs. King Mo in the next round of this tournament, which obviously means that at least one of them is destined to lose on Friday night. M’Pumbu at anything over +450 would be worth a $5 for shiggles, but at +360? Move along, people; this fight is in Stay the Hell Away From territory.
I’m surprised that Shawn Jordan isn’t a bigger favorite. Jordan has the better record, the more impressive resume, and better wrestling; he should have zero problems with Matt Mitrione. Honestly, the only advantage that I’m giving to Mitrione is that his body isn’t covered in blatant scratch worthy of a spot on our ugliest tattoos in MMA list. Seriously, person who drew Jordan’s chest/shoulder piece, what the hell?
TUF: China Finale: Hatsu Hioki (-400) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+280) Bellator 110: Mike Richman (-250) vs. Des Green (+190) Bellator 110: Will Martinez (+280) vs. Goiti Yamauchi (-370)
Titan FC 27: Bryan Goldsby (+240) vs. Kevin Croom (-300)
And now we’re entering the squash match portion of the upcoming bouts. Don’t be fooled by Hatsu Hioki’s three-fight losing streak — he has looked unstoppable on Asian soil. Add on that this fight is a must-win for him, and there’s no way that his hand isn’t getting raised on Friday. Over in Bellator, Mike Richman should prove too experienced and well-rounded for Team Bombsquad product Des Green. Goiti Yamauchi is a twenty-one year old grappling ace with thirteen of his sixteen career victories coming via submission — eleven of which coming in the first round — fighting an 8-2 curtain-jerker. The prop that this fight will last less than 1.5 rounds is definitely worth exploring here. Meanwhile, in Titan FC, Kevin “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly” [Author Note: Not sure if nickname is awesome or terrible] Croom is not only also a fantastic grappler, but he also benefits from fighting a 17-15 journeyman with seven career submission losses. Easy call.
Both Phan and Lee are coming off of losses, but Phan is favored here because he’s an Asian (sort-of) fighting in Asia, I guess. Except, you know, Phan grew up in California, so there is no “fighting on his home continent” advantage here, and Lee has proven that he can win in Asia at this level with his victory over Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. At +145, a straight bet won’t provide a ton of bang for your buck, but Lee makes for a relatively low risk parlay addition.
“Hey, I’ve actually heard of this guy, so he will win” isn’t exactly a smart betting strategy. This is especially true with Mikhail Zayats; he has won eight of his last ten fights — including a first-round TKO over Babalu — and those two losses come to Emanuel Newton and Vinny Magalhaes. Bessette’s resume is slightly less impressive, but he’s an attractive pick simply due to how inconsistent Diego Nunes has looked recently. Nunes has lost three of his last four fights, and is coming off of a quick, nasty knockout loss to Patricio Pitbull at Bellator 99. Bessette isn’t worth a spot in your parlay, but a straight bet on him is far from the worst way you could spend $5 this weekend.
Stay the Hell Away From
Titan FC 27: Matt Riddle (-180) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150)
Remember our “Who Is the Biggest Waste of Potential in MMA History” roundtable? You can pretty much copy and paste what ReX13 wrote about BJ Penn here for my analysis of this fight. On paper, yes, this is Riddle’s fight to lose. But after a year that has consisted of retirement, unretirement, pulling out of fights, and getting fired from Bellator for Riddle, betting on “Deep Waters” this Friday is just as risky as betting on a post-Sonnen Paulo Filho: He may fight like the elite fighter he is, or he may put in the bare minimum effort needed to collect his paycheck, or he may decide to pull out of the fight at the last minute because, you know, whatever. The bottom line here is that this fight is a crap shoot, and neither fighter offers an attractive enough return on your investment to justify the risk. Just say no.
Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
The Ultra-Conservative Approach:
$25 on Kim+Hioki+Ricci parlay (returns $20.44) $20 on Richman+Yamauchi parlay (returns $15.57) $5 on Shawn Jordan (returns $3.70)
In the likely event that all three bets pay off, you’ll earn a total of $39.71 for your efforts.
The Live Dangerously Approach:
$20 on Richman+Yamauchi+Jordan parlay (returns $41.91) $20 on Kim+Zayats parlay (returns $53.29) $5 on Matt Bessette (returns $14.25) $5 on Croom+Lee parlay (returns $11.33)
I once read that the biggest mistake that novice gamblers make is betting not to lose; whether that’s a quote from a book about Nick the Greek or something I read off of the bathroom wall at a gas station casino is irrelevant. With a little luck, this parlay returns $120.78.
The “Whatever, It’s Mardi Gras #YOLO” Approach:
$25 on Hathaway+Bessette+Gurgel (returns $2,169.50) $20 on Lee+Zayats (returns $119.65) $5 on Matt Riddle (returns $2.78)
Semi-Related: It’s common for gambling addicts to find the rush of losing and trying to win back their losses more addictive than actually winning. I figured that was an appropriate disclaimer to use before casually pointing out that this strategy will return $2,291.93. Have a nice day.
The betting line for Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber has been released, with Barao nearly a 3-1 favorite to defend his bantamweight title at UFC 169 next month. That’s unsurprising, considering that Faber is coming into the fight on less than a month’s notice and already has a loss to Barao on his record. What’s interesting is that every other title fight that the UFC currently has scheduled in 2014 is an even bigger mismatch, in terms of gambling odds. Take a look at the numbers below, via BestFightOdds…
UFC 169, February 1st
Renan Barao (-280) vs. Urijah Faber (+220)
Jose Aldo (-624) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+501)
UFC 170, February 22nd
Ronda Rousey (-400) vs. Sara McMann (+318)
UFC 171, March 15th
Johny Hendricks (-387) vs. Robbie Lawler (+323)
UFC 172, April 12th
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Glover Teixeira (+495)
In fact, the only UFC title fight with a slightly closer better line than Barao vs. Faber is Chris Weidman (-255) vs. Vitor Belfort (+195), which hasn’t been tied to a specific event yet. So, which longshot is worth sticking money on? Considering that Lawler and Belfort have the power to change a fight with a single punch/kick, I could think of stupider ways to blow my money than putting small action on those dudes. Your thoughts?
Fun fact: A $2 parlay bet on all six underdogs listed above would net you a hypothetical profit of $11,935.41. Just sayin’.
(Photo via Getty)
The betting line for Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber has been released, with Barao nearly a 3-1 favorite to defend his bantamweight title at UFC 169 next month. That’s unsurprising, considering that Faber is coming into the fight on less than a month’s notice and already has a loss to Barao on his record. What’s interesting is that every other title fight that the UFC currently has scheduled in 2014 is an even bigger mismatch, in terms of gambling odds. Take a look at the numbers below, via BestFightOdds…
UFC 169, February 1st
Renan Barao (-280) vs. Urijah Faber (+220)
Jose Aldo (-624) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+501)
UFC 170, February 22nd
Ronda Rousey (-400) vs. Sara McMann (+318)
UFC 171, March 15th
Johny Hendricks (-387) vs. Robbie Lawler (+323)
UFC 172, April 12th
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Glover Teixeira (+495)
In fact, the only UFC title fight with a slightly closer better line than Barao vs. Faber is Chris Weidman (-255) vs. Vitor Belfort (+195), which hasn’t been tied to a specific event yet. So, which longshot is worth sticking money on? Considering that Lawler and Belfort have the power to change a fight with a single punch/kick, I could think of stupider ways to blow my money than putting small action on those dudes. Your thoughts?
Fun fact: A $2 parlay bet on all six underdogs listed above would net you a hypothetical profit of $11,935.41. Just sayin’.
(Meanwhile, Shogun could be found outside the event’s velvet ropes, insisting to the bouncer that his girlfriend was already inside. / Photo via Getty)
Just a heads up, Potato Nation: The betting lines were released for the UFC on FOX Sports 1:1 headlining matchup between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Chael Sonnen yesterday. Surprisingly enough, “The American Gangster” has opened as a slight favorite (-139) over the former champion (+100) despite being on the heels of back-to-back losses and winless in the light heavyweight division since approximately ever.
Although Shogun is also coming off a tough loss to Alexander Gustafsson at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz and has in fact gone loss-win in his past seven UFC contests, many fans predicted that he would emerge a favorite over Sonnen based on his track record alone. It should also be noted that Shogun has never lost back-to-back contests in his MMA career. On the other hand, Rua’s inconsistency on fight night is always a potential issue and it would appear that the oddsmakers are not predicting a vintage Shogun performance come August 17th.
(Meanwhile, Shogun could be found outside the event’s velvet ropes, insisting to the bouncer that his girlfriend was already inside. / Photo via Getty)
Just a heads up, Potato Nation: The betting lines were released for the UFC on FOX Sports 1:1 headlining matchup between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Chael Sonnen yesterday. Surprisingly enough, “The American Gangster” has opened as a slight favorite (-139) over the former champion (+100) despite being on the heels of back-to-back losses and winless in the light heavyweight division since approximately ever.
Although Shogun is also coming off a tough loss to Alexander Gustafsson at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz and has in fact gone loss-win in his past seven UFC contests, many fans predicted that he would emerge a favorite over Sonnen based on his track record alone. It should also be noted that Shogun has never lost back-to-back contests in his MMA career. On the other hand, Rua’s inconsistency on fight night is always a potential issue and it would appear that the oddsmakers are not predicting a vintage Shogun performance come August 17th.
Let that sink in for a moment. Still with us? Good. So, after losing that match, Lawal has somehow become an even more immense favorite against a guy who is BEST KNOWN FOR A DRAMATIC UPSET, FOR FUCK’S SAKE.
At this point, you can get Seth Petruzelli for +725 at SportBet and 5Dimes, meaning that a $100 bet on the Silverback would return $725 in profit if he wins. Meanwhile, a $1,545 wager on Lawal would return $100 in profit if he wins, which has to be the dumbest investment in the history of world currency.
If you want to bet on Petruzelli, do it now before the oddsmakers sober up.
(Be honest: How many of you were even aware that this fight was happening? / Image via Facebook.com/King.Mo.FH)
Let that sink in for a moment. Still with us? Good. So, after losing that match, Lawal has somehow become an even more immense favorite against a guy who is BEST KNOWN FOR A DRAMATIC UPSET, FOR FUCK’S SAKE.
At this point, you can get Seth Petruzelli for +725 at SportBet and 5Dimes, meaning that a $100 bet on the Silverback would return $725 in profit if he wins. Meanwhile, a $1,545 wager on Lawal would return $100 in profit if he wins, which has to be the dumbest investment in the history of world currency.
If you want to bet on Petruzelli, do it now before the oddsmakers sober up.
How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?
Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafssonat UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?
In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a seriesofsquashmatches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.
How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?
Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafssonat UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?
In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a seriesofsquashmatches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.
Personally, I think Gustafsson’s size should at the very least prevent him from getting absolutely manhandled by the champ, and expect to see that window slightly narrow as UFC 165 approaches. That being said, Gustafsson hasn’t really proved that he has eliminated the hole in his submission defense Phil Davis was able to exploit at UFC 112. I’m not saying that he hasn’t, but his recent wins over Vladdy, Thiago Silva and “Shogun” Rua were largely contested on the feet.
Sure, “The Mauler” has two UFC submission victories to his credit, but they came over James Te Huna and Cyrille Diabate, two fighters who aren’t exactly known for their submission prowess. Jones may make the claim that Jiu-Jitsu is his weakest area, but that hasn’t stopped him from submitting such BJJ black belts as Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida, so Gustafsson better be prepared for the champ’s creative grappling attack to say the least.
So, Potato Nation, do these early odds actually make you want to risk placing a small bet on “The Mauler” or do they have you heading for the nearest exit?
