WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez. Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller. As always, Mike Hammersmith will […]
WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez. Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller.
As always, Mike Hammersmith will be helping me out with the picks for WEC 50. Make sure to check out the odds and Pros’ Picks before making any last minute bets!
It’s interesting to think that Bart Palaszewski has more experience than any three fighters on this card, and while that experience helps in keeping cool under fire, it also illustrates the problems a fighter has, and seemingly continues to have. Palaszewski’s opponent at WEC 50 is an unheralded 9-1 fighter named Zach Micklewright, and while you might not have heard of him yet, he’s likely destined for big things after this fight.
While Palaszewski has a great track record in the cage and is a jack of all trades, he’s always had two weaknesses; strong wrestlers and rangy strikers. Micklewright is the latter, and one of the better muay thai strikers Palaszewski will have faced in his career, as well as one of the best conditioned athletes he’s faced. While Palaszewski has decent inside boxing and could take this fight to the mat if Micklewright closes distance too often, its just as likely Micklewright picks Palaszewski apart from the outside and walks away with a decision or late TKO. In a very close bout, Micklewright comes in as an excellent bet at +200.
Fight fans and bookies are funny sometimes, and no more so than with fighters like Mackens Semerzier. When Semerzier came onto the scene against Wagnny Fabiano as a complete unknown, the odds were firmly in Fabiano’s favor at -700 and essentially no one gave Semerzier any sort of a chance against the highly-respected BJJ grappler. Fabiano apparently didn’t give Semerzier much of a chance either, as he foolishly dropped into a triangle and found himself on the receiving end of “Upset Of The Year” in several publications.
Instead of people looking at this fight and coming to the conclusion that Fabiano made a foolish mistake against someone with more skill than he thought, fans jumped onto the Semerzier bandwagon, assumed he was a better grappler than the mighty Fabiano, and blindly followed him to a decision loss against Devidis Taurosevicius, where Semerzier was a -155 favorite against someone whom he should have rightly been a hefty underdog against.
What happens now is very important in sports betting, as there’s a period of uncertainty in Semerzier with his 1-1 record, and often the odds on his fights will be screwy for quite some time. Such is the case here as Semerzier takes on veteran grappler Javier Vazquez as a substantial underdog at +190.
While I feel Vazquez is one of the most under-rated grapplers of his time, Semerzier isn’t the push-over people assumed he was in his first fight, and may actually make this a competitive bout. What this really comes down to is scoring though, as I don’t doubt this fight will find its way to a decision. Looking at Vazquez record, you’ll notice an unusually large amount of split decisions after his promotion to a black belt in BJJ. This is mainly due to his peculiar method of shooting a takedown, where he flips into guard at the moment his takedown fails as a way of achieving a ground fight even if he can’t get top position. While this is an interesting and innovative attack method, it often gives the judges the illusion that Vazquez has been stuffed and taken down by his opponent, leading to top control points and decisions that rightly should have gone his way. In what could be a frantic grappling bout, these moments are critical and may result in a close fight going the way of Semerzier, making him worth a small wager.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Fredson Paixao versus Bryan Caraway will surely be a grappling exhibition. With that being said, I believe Paixao to be a superior grappler. Both guys have mostly lost against top tier competition, but if Caraway can’t defend a Mark Hominick submission, I don’t think he’ll have the chops to keep a guy of Paixao’s pedigree off him. I like Fredson Paixao at -170.
Although Dave Jansen showed some serious toughness against Kamal Shalorus, he wasn’t close to finishing the fight at any point. This fight actually opened with Jansen the favorite, but has since flipped over (if you got Lamas at underdog odds, nice work). Lamas has wins over Bart Palaszewski, Bendy Casimir and James Krause, some tough fighters with diverse skill sets. Jansen does hold an impressive win over Rich Crunkilton, but the Cleat has a very similar style. Both guys are strong wrestlers, but Lamas clearly holds a striking advantage and is the more explosive fighter. I still like Ricardo Lamas at -135.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Cruz/UD
Roller/UD
Jorgensen/UD
Mendes/SUB/1
Micklewright/TKO/2
Lamas/UD
Vazquez/SD
Paixao/SUB/2
Njokuani/KO/1
Castillo/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and […]
UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and extremely entertaining) trash talk has turned this fight into must-see TV. Also appearing on the UFC 117 card is a number one contender fight between former Welterweight title challengers Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves.
Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC 117 card. Make sure to check out the Pros’ Picks as well! Enjoy the fights and best of luck with your bets.
Perhaps not the pick you thought you’d see here, but hear me out. In the world of MMA betting, there are certain fundamentals that must be followed to properly predict the sport, such as stylistic differences, where a fight is likely to take place, etc, I feel the first fundamental of fight predictions is this: “You have to take your heart out of the fight.” While I may love certain fighters and despise others, the fact of the matter is they all have strengths and weaknesses to consider, and “I like/hate them” has nothing to do with how the fight will play out. Oftentimes with a beloved champion, you can never imagine someone could possibly come by and walk all over them, but such may be the case here with Chael Sonnen.
For me, this fight has a lot to do with technicalities and intangibles, and we’ll start with a look at the current champion Anderson Silva. Silva is perhaps the best technical striker to ever step into the cage, with a combination of accuracy, power, reflexes and sound fundamentals that make other great fighters look absolutely silly in comparison. Much like BJ Penn, I feel a focused and ready Anderson Silva, given the right opponent, is one of the best fighters you could hope for, and would go as far as to say he’s basically unbeatable against any kind of striker across any weight class. Two things stick out at me about Silva though, which leads me to believe he may be losing his belt on August 7th. One is that, while he puts on amazing displays against guys like Chris Leben, Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, he can’t seem to find a will to win against guys like Patrick Cote, Demian Maia and Thales Leites. Being the greatest counter-striker in the sport is all well and good, but when you’re fighting someone who refuses to engage you on the feet, it shouldn’t lead to a twenty-five minute dance off. This leads to my second issue with Silva, that being his dedication to the sport.
Having talked about retirement for years, including leaving everything behind to pursue boxing, you have to question Silva’s motivation and dedication to being competitive in this sport. Silva strikes me as someone who likes a challenge, and looking at the situation realistically, in twelve fights under the UFC banner, he’s faced only three opponents who stood any chance of beating him (Lutter, Henderson, and Marquardt) and hasn’t faced anyone on his level in over two years. This, combined with threats from Dana White to fire him if he doesn’t take fights seriously, and we come to two scenarios. Either Silva will come into this fight with sometime to prove and attempt to destroy Sonnen, which I think will work more often than not, or he’ll come into this bout exactly as he has for his last several title defenses and play right into Sonnen’s game.
For Sonnen’s part of this, he brings several problems for Silva. Sonnen is easily the best pure wrestler Silva has ever faced, with a work ethic in the cage that would kill most people, but perhaps his greatest asset is his mind. Sonnen comes from a wise camp in Team Quest, and Sonnen’s style has long been one of the least favorite of fans for one main reason. He understands the fight game well enough to be constantly active from top position, making stand-ups rare in his bouts, but isn’t so active as to open himself up for disaster. With irresistible takedowns and a top game that lives little room for victory for his opponent, Sonnen brings just enough to the fight to win, but not enough to entertain.
Breaking this fight down, I think Silva has a 40% chance of winning in the first round, and no chance of winning outside the second round. Sonnen will continuously move forward, dog every single takedown he can, and only really needs one per round to win this fight. This combined with Silva’s lack of cardio in recent bouts, and it’s not hard to imagine Sonnen losing the first round on points, and taking the next four by virtue of takedowns and control. With Sonnen having a slight edge in my book, his odds at +350 are very tempting, and I recommend a small wager here for the upset win.
One of many highly-decorated wrestlers in the UFC, Johny Hendricks is riding an undefeated streak in his career, and showing improvement in every fight. His combination of suffocating top control, clinch wrestling and dirty boxing have allowed him to work over guys like Amir Sadollah and TJ Grant in competitive bouts, and given the right opponent, I think we’ll be seeing Hendricks at the top of the division within the next year. I think his next bout against Charlie Brenneman is about the perfect fight for him, as Brenneman comes into this as a very green wrestler who will have no leg to stand on against someone as talented as Hendricks. While the odds aren’t spectacular, taking Hendricks at -380 would make the best anchor bet of the night in my mind, as Brenneman lacks the tools to take this fight from him.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Jon Fitch is an underdog against a guy coming off brain surgery…just throwing that out there. If this fight took place with both guys being healthy and at the top of their games, its close to a coin flip. But Thiago Alves is rusty and missed weight for this fight. Because he missed weight, it is likely that he will come into this fight bigger than Fitch, but with that being said Fitch is a huge Welterweight who doesn’t get bullied.
Fitch hasn’t been knocked out in his career, and I expect him to use his wrestling to wear down the Pitbull. I am going to question Alves’ late fight cardio here moreso than Fitch’s because of his drastic, last minute weight cut. This fight has a Fitch decision written all over it, and if you can get him at -115 or under it is worth a bet.
Our line of thinking when it comes to MMA is a very “what have you done for me lately” approach. That kind of thinking has bitten us in the ass before (see Takanori Gomi, Mauricio Rua, Randy Couture etc.). You hear the word “retire” tossed around pretty freely on MMA blogs and message boards for anyone who has had more than 10 fights in the UFC. Matt Hughes is no exception to this.
Lets look at the facts: Matt Hughes has lost to Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre in recent memory. One of those guys is the best American Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player alive. One of those guys is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world. One of those guys practically came into the fight as a Light Heavyweight. By saying Ricardo Almeida is going to win this fight, we’re putting him on the Alves/Penn/St. Pierre level.
Almeida is an absolute BJJ beast; he has some of the best submissions in MMA. Beyond that…not a whole hell of a lot. I’m going to give the former champion and possibly the greatest Welterweight of all time some respect here. He has the experience, wrestling and submission defense to warrant a bet at -155.
I left out Dennis Hallman‘s name off of the “people that have beaten Matt Hughes” list because it was forever ago. Hallman’s return to the UFC has been dramatic; he was on his way to decisioning John Howard before getting KTFO. With that being said, Ben Saunders is no John Howard.
There’s no reason to delve too deeply into this fight. Ben Saunders is a gigantic Welterweight whose size is a problem for everyone but the best wrestlers in the division. He is a beast in the clinch, has good submissions himself and has the “might be a little nuts” mentality that takes people a long way in this sport. Hallman gets knocked out quick…and -220 is a gift line here.
The fact that Struve is better than -200 against a guy nobody has ever heard of is odd. Christian Morecraft‘s biggest tool is his size, but Struve is still bigger than him. Stefan Struve uses his long limbs very well on the ground and has very capable BJJ, especially for a guy his size. His striking is rudimentary at best, but he has a good chin and can use his striking to set up trips and takedowns.
Struve has been in there with some serious fighter. Whether hes won or lost, the experience gained from fighting the Junior dos Santos‘, Roy Nelson‘s and Paul Buentello‘s of the world give him an edge a newcomer like Christian Morecraft just doesn’t have. Look for a trip and submission win for the Skyscraper.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Silva/UD
Fitch/UD
dos Santos/TKO/2
Hughes/SD
dos Anjos/SUB/2
Boetsch/TKO/3
Saunders/KO/1
Hazelett/SUB/1
Hendricks/UD
Struve/SUB/1
Davis/SUB/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego. The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz. Without further adieu, […]
UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego. The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz.
Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC On Versus card. Make sure to check out the Pros Picks as well!
The UFC never pretended to be fair in their match-making; showing definite favor towards some fighters, and mercilessly disposing of others, and with this in mind, it’s fairly obvious which camp Jon Jones is in. Having gained instant stardom with his upset victory over Andre Gusmao, and his wild arsenal of spinning strikes and five-point Greco-Roman throws, Jones has had a tailor-made path to the top of the division.
His next opponent is the gritty veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, whom stands as one of the several striker/wrestlers Jones has faced, and whom should prove to be an easy opponent to train for. This fight really does come down to training too, as the aging Matyushenko has started to show his age in his fights way back to his last matches IFL and comes into this fight with a predictable game plan and the wrong set of skills to deal with Jones. With Jones having trained for, fought, and defeated guys like Jake O’Brien and Matt Hamill, he’s essentially already worked on the blue print to beat Matyushenko, and comes into this fight a heavy favorite in my book.
Matyushenko doesn’t have the reach or fine technical skills to out-strike Jones, and with his speed gone, can never hope to shoot from outside Jones 84″ reach and catch a meaningful takedown. This fight is built to give Jones more experience and move him closer to the title picture, and while the payout is less than grand, a hearty bet at -560 is easy money.
Some may say he’s lucky to be undefeated in the UFC, but none can deny the talent of John “Doomsday” Howard. Having taken two split decision wins and delivered two KOs in his time inside the cage, Howard is making his main card debut after toiling in the dark matches, and will do so against another highly exciting fighter in Jake Ellenberger.
Both men have real KO power, fast transitions, and well-developed mat-work, with Howard having an advantage working off his back, while Ellenberger is likely the better striker of the two. When it comes down to it, I’d give a slight edge to Howard based on Ellenberger’s weakness working off his back, combined with Howard’s strong takedown skills. Sportbooks seem to be over-valuing Ellenberger here, making a small wager on Howard at +150 a good payout for a coin-flip fight.
It’s rare to see a fighter given a third opportunity in the UFC after going 0-2, but anyone who’s watched Igor Pokrajac’s appearances will know why. A sturdy wrestler with a natural talent on the feet, Pokrajac gave as good as he got in his fights with both Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, coming up just short on the scorecards, despite having both men in trouble in their bouts.
He’ll now be brought in against backsliding fighter James Irvin, who is also coming off of two losses, having only fought twice in the last two years. Irvin has had issues with everything from injury to failing drug tests to disastrous weight-cuts, and comes into this fight with little to offer except his incredible punching power. Punching power is the great equalizer, and when both men have it and are willing to trade, you end up with a very even fight. With that in mind, Pokrajac comes into this bout at +155 and makes for the best bet on the card, in my mind, for payout to risk.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Mark Munoz has been incredibly inconsistent, and has shown weakness in fights against Kendall Grove, Matt Hamill and Nick Catone. While Munoz has high level wrestling, he hasn’t used it well. Okami has better MMA-centric grappling and more technical striking. These to factors, in addition to Okami’s experience will allow him to expose the holes in Munoz’s still-developing MMA game en route to a decision victory. Throw a decent sized bet down on Okami over at Bodog.
If MMA betting has taught me one valuable lesson, its not to bet on someone coming off an injury. While a healthy Mike Massenzio would probably be a slight favorite over Brian Stann, that is clearly not the case here. Massenzio hasn’t fought in 2 years and is getting some unfair respect over a guy who lost to Phil Davis (editor’s note: everyone loses to Phil Davis). Stann’s improving game is the polar opposite of Massenzio’s injury troubles…in MMA you need to fight to improve. Stann is a very exciting pick at +140.
Charles Oliveira is overrated in my opinion. Word on the street is that he’s quite the prospect, but word on the next street is that his striking is sloppy and he’s fairly one dimensional. Yes, his BJJ will be worlds above anything Darren Elkins possesses. However, I think the +300 line on the UFC-tested Elkins is worth a play because Oliveira will have to submit him to win. Elkins is at least worth a look at this pretty inflated line.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Jones/KO/2
Okami/UD
Ellenberger/TKO/2
Griffin/UD
Kelly/SUB/3
Pokrajac/TKO/1
Riddle/SUB/1
Stann/UD
Kimmons/UD
Elkins/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a […]
The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine. Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.
To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card. There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely. My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him. I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later. For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.
The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories. His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.
When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not). The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson. Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.
Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson. Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back. However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst. Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision. At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
McGee/SUB/2
Jardine/SD
Simpson/UD
Fisher/TKO/2
Yager/KO/1
Holst/UD
Browne/KO/2
Tavares/UD
Bryant/SD
Hammortree/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them. I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**
Strikeforce – Los Angeles takes place June 16th in, you guessed it, Los Angeles. Forgive the less than stellar poster…I couldn’t find one for this event for some reason so I had to make one to put there. The main event will match up two former UFC fighters and top contenders Renato “Babalu” Sobral and […]
Strikeforce – Los Angeles takes place June 16th in, you guessed it, Los Angeles. Forgive the less than stellar poster…I couldn’t find one for this event for some reason so I had to make one to put there. The main event will match up two former UFC fighters and top contenders Renato “Babalu” Sobral and “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Allegedly, the winner of this fight will get a title shot in their respective weight classes. Also appearing on the Strikeforce – LA card are Marius Zaromskis, the male version of Cyborg Santos, Trevor Prangley, KJ Noons and Tim Kennedy.
As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations. Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for tomorrow’s Strikeforce – Los Angeles card. To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Los Angeles Pros’ Picks.
Probably more famous for his role on Bully Beatdown than his actual fighting prowess, Conor “The Hurricane” Heun is a full-time submission grappling and wrestling trainer at Legends MMA, and a veteran of several mid-tier MMA organizations. Those he’s not a full-time fighter, Heun has had a successful career with eight wins, and all of this three losses coming by way of decision.
He will be facing off-again on-again MMA fighter KJ Noons, who has spent the majority of his fighting career inside a boxing ring, rather than the cage. Having already made his comeback to MMA in Japan, he took on Andre Amade in an affair that showed both ring rust, and a series of very bad habits picked up from his several years away from the sport and learning the sweet science.
While Noons can clearly out-strike Heun in a standing battle, Heun brings more than enough wrestling and submission grappling to put Noons down consistently in this bout, and make his boxing skills all but useless. My concern here is that Heun will prefer to bang it out with Noons, as he’s shown a willingness to scrap even when it doesn’t favor his chances of winning. Despite sometimes being his own worst enemy in the cage, Heun comes into this bout at +335 and makes for a great bet in what is likely a dead even fight.
I imagine some people are not as high on “The Whitemare” now after his drubbing at the hands of Nick Diaz. However, Marius Zaromskis is still an extremely devastating striker with KO power in both hands and feet. Strikeforce, in my opinion, gave him a pretty good match up in Evangelista Santos. Cyborg is also heavy handed, but he isn’t as fast or technical as Zaromskis. I have little doubt that this entire contest will unfold with both participants upright, and nothing of Cyborg’s recent fights has shown me that he is going to be able to hang with Zaromskis. Taking Joey Villasenor to a split decision was impressive, but I believe Zaromskis has better striking than Smokin’ Joe. After a close first frame, look for the Whitemare to land a few leg kicks in the second and ultimately sneak in his trademark high kick for the KO win.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Sobral/UD
Zaromskis/TKO/2
Kennedy/SD
Heun/SUB/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC 115 – Liddell VS Franklin takes place this Saturday in Vancouver. It should be an electric day of sports programming with USA/England on during the day and UFC 115 at night. This Saturday’s main event pits former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell against former UFC Middleweight champion Rich Franklin. […]
UFC 115 – Liddell VS Franklin takes place this Saturday in Vancouver. It should be an electric day of sports programming with USA/England on during the day and UFC 115 at night. This Saturday’s main event pits former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell against former UFC Middleweight champion Rich Franklin. As we all know, this was supposed to be the third installment of Liddell/Ortiz, but Tito went down with an injury.
Despite the heat this card has been getting, I think it has a lot of potential. The Condit/MacDonald, Griffin/Dunham, Danzig/Wiman and Kampmann/Thiago fights should all be exciting and competitive. The two heavyweight bouts on the main card will also satiate your thirst for a good ol’ slugfest.
As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations. Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for this weekend’s UFC 115 card (and there are A LOT to choose from!). To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 115 – Liddell VS Franklin Pros’ Picks.
Though a baby in the sport when he came into the UFC, Pat Barry has been on a serious learning curve, and has shown his worth every time he steps into the octagon. Although accused of being a small Heavyweight, Barry packs a ton of power into his frame, and every win comes by way of TKO due to his large arsenal of striking skills and particularly, his vicious leg kicks. While his ground game is still developing, and he’d be eaten alive by some of the monster wrestlers in the division, there are several fights that should be fairly easy for him. Enter the fan favorite and aging warrior in Mirko Filipovic, who will be fighting his last contractual fight in the UFC, and who has looked to be a shadow of his former self in previous bouts.
Every once in awhile, the UFC sets up something I call a “passing of the torch fight”, where an aging fighter is placed against a young, hungry lion of similar skills, with the idea that the young man will replace the older with a win. It happened when Frankie Edgar dismantled former champion Sean Sherk, and it should happen now when a more versatile and less shop-worn Barry soundly beats the legendary Cro-cop. The main issue here for Cro-cop is that his speed has faded, and his career has been spent engaging primarily in throw-away fights, leaving him with a contemptuous defense hardwired into his style, and without the chin to deal with real power. Barry has shown he can take a hit, and can certainly dish one out here, making him a firm favorite it my book. At -150 , he makes for one of the best value bets, despite being a favorite.
Though the opponent has changed from Tito Ortiz to Rich Franklin, the story remains the same, as two veteran fighters in the twilight of their career will scrap in the main event of UFC 115. Rich Franklin has been taking it easy as of late, and playing the part of the company man, filling in wherever he’s needed at anywhere from 185-205lbs. Now he steps into this role once again in what would have been a dream match five years ago, and in what will hopefully be an exciting bout despite the decline of both fights. Decline is the key word here, as both men have fallen behind the curve of the division, and age, both in years and in fights, has certainly taken its toll on them. For Franklin’s part, we’ve seen a slight decline in his speed, but his technique has always been sharp, and he remains a difficult fight for anyone across two weight classes. For Chuck Liddell, the decline has been much more noticeable, and terribly unforgiving for the former champion, having suffered three TKOs in five fights.
A fighter’s longevity in the sport depends greatly on their style, where power punchers and clinch wrestlers have long life-spans, while counter-punchers and rapid-fire transition artists fade much faster, as their reaction speed and timing begins to go. Liddell is perhaps the best counter-puncher the sport has seen, but with his timing and reaction speed going, bringing those punches to bear and avoiding his opponent’s offense has become too much too ask of the old lion. Franklin comes into this fight with a superior boxing skill, the same mid and low kicks that Keith Jardine used to great effect against Liddell, and plenty of foot-speed to avoid Liddell’s big power. It won’t be pretty, but Franklin at -140 is a great bet, as Franklin can cut Liddell up with fast jabs, land a KO punch, or simply play it safe and out-point him almost every time.
Having flown under the radar for some time, Evan Dunham has been an underdog in every single UFC bout he’s had, but remains undefeated in his career. His last bout was a spectacular submission victory over fellow undefeated fighter, Efrain Escudero, where he snapped not only his winning streak, but also his elbow in a smooth armbar transition in the third round, walking away with the biggest victory of his career. Now Dunham faces teammate and fan favorite Tyson Griffin in his next step up in competition, which promises to be a great fight. We’re not here to talk about great fights though, but to make money, so here’s how this will likely go down.
Tyson Griffin is a very basic, yet effective wrestler and muay thai fighter, who has had success in the UFC, fighting and beating similar fighters to himself, as well as most of the high-level BJJ fighters in the division. While having sharp fundamentals is very important in athletics, when you have nothing else, it’s easy for someone with A) better fundamentals or B) an understanding of how you fight, to beat you. Enter Evan Dunham, who is one of the slickest and well-versed grapplers in the Lightweight division, as well as a training partner of Tyson Griffin. This training relationship is very important, as both men will have some familiarity with the other, but therein lies an advantage for Dunham. When you’re very basic, it’s easy to figure out how you move, whereas Dunham has a huge repertoire of skills, most of which Griffin might never have seen in practice.
Breaking this down, Dunham has the best chance of winning on the feet, as his striking packs far more wallop than Griffins, especially his left straight, and has the best chance of finishing on the mat, either from top or bottom. While Griffin might be able to edge Dunham in a decision if he’s choosy with his takedowns and keeps the striking to a safe minimum, this is really a 50/50 fight. Dunham comes in as a large underdog at +195 and makes for one of the best underdogs on the card.
**For the record, I (MMAMoneyLine) am in total agreement with Mike on these three picks. I think Franklin, Barry and Dunham are smart bets at their current odds. Here are two addition fights in which I believe there is a clear betting advantage.**
Nothing damaged Rothwell’s stock more than his discouraging loss to Cain Velasquez. However, lets keep in mind that it was Cain Velasquez…one of the best Heavyweights in MMA. Rothwell came into the Velasquez fight in some of the best shape of his career; he was simply outmatched by a more explosive fighter. Big Ben still has the game to knock his opponent out, submit him or grind him out against the cage for 15 minutes.
Enter Gilbert Yvel. The level of Yvel’s striking has never been questioned…he is a very good striker with a ton of experience. In the same vein as Rothwell’s loss to Velasquez, Yvel shouldn’t be put out to pasture for losing to Junior dos Santos. The main thing that worries be about Yvel is the fact that he’s either been losing fights or beating cans for the last five years. His game is fading and he looked slow and uninterested against dos Santos.
I don’t see how Yvel keeps Rothwell’s bear like body away for three rounds. Yvel absolutely has a puncher’s (/kicker’s) chance against Rothwell, but Ben should be able to dictate this entire fight. Yvel has no gas tank, will be out muscled and outworked on the ground. Aside from Yvel catching Rothwell sleeping with a roundhouse kick (which is unlikely against a veteran fighter like Rothwell), this fight ends either in a Rothwell submission or dominant decision. I like Rothwell a lot at -150 at BetUS. I’d put Rothwell at closer to -220 personally.
Taking Chuck Liddell, Mirko Filipovic and Gilbert Yvel into consideration, I still think David Loiseau has the least likely chance out of any of the aging fighters to make a statement at UFC 115. The Crow’s last win over a name opponent was against the late Evan Tanner in 2005. Not only is Loiseau in the twilight of his career, he is going to be overmatched in nearly every category against Mario Miranda.
Miranda is younger, hungrier, arguably has the more effective striking and absolutely has the grappling advantage. He looked good against Gerald Harris before being KOed and will surely be looking out for Loiseau’s elbows. I expect Miranda to use his striking to set up a takedown and the following ground and pound finish.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Franklin/UD
Barry/TKO/3
Thiago VS. Kampmann/DRAW (yeah, I said it)
MacDonald/SD
Rothwell/UD
Wiman/SD
Dunham/UD
Wilks/SUB/1
Pyle/SUB/2
Miranda/TKO/2
Patrick/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
