Tag: Renan Pagado

UFC 149 Post-Fight Breakdown

Renan Pagado vs. Urijah Faber In the main event of UFC 149, Renan Pagado used the Jose Aldo Light playbook against Faber on his way to a convincing decision victory. Pagado used the same strategy.

Renan Pagado vs. Urijah Faber

In the main event of UFC 149, Renan Pagado used the Jose Aldo Light playbook against Faber on his way to a convincing decision victory. Pagado used the same strategy of eliminating Faber’s movement with low kicks and then capitalizing with punching combinations. Faber was never in danger of being finished but was also never close to gaining any type of advantage.

Neither fighter did much in the first round. Pagado landed a low kick and couple of glancing punching combinations. Faber did his best to move and counter but never landed anything significant. The first round was the closest but I gave it to Pagado. The second round saw Pagado begin to establish control as he landed a clean punching combination off of a flying knee. He also continued to land the occasional low kick. The third round was when Pagado really began to damage Faber with the low kicks. He landed a huge one toward the end of the round and in between the third and fourth rounds, Faber had ice on his lead leg. The fourth and fifth rounds were more of the same. Pagado didn’t outclass Faber the way Aldo did but he established that he is clearly the better fighter and deserves a shot at Dominick Cruz once the champion is healthy.

The script for Urijah Faber title fights is becoming a bit repetitive at this point. Fighters with better movement and more technical striking use those advantages to keep him off balance and eventually outpoint him on the way to a decision victory. Faber’s wrestling is no longer good enough to get top level opponents to the ground and his days as a champion are probably over. But he will still continue to provide entertaining fights and will likely be remembered as the first fighter under 155 lbs to become a star. Pagado’s career is going the opposite direction. He will face Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title in his next fight and he is capable of winning. That fight has the potential to be the best in the history of the 135 lb division and I’m already excited to see it. Renan Pagado is not the 135 lb Jose Aldo but he might soon be the 135 lb champion.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the biggest upset of the night, Tim Boetsch defeated the much heralded Hector Lombard in a perplexing fight. Lombard seemed to feel the pressure of making his first UFC appearance and never really let his hands go. He threw single shot counters whenever Boetsch came into range, which was almost never, and didn’t seem to ever get comfortable in the octagon. Boetsch fought from the outside landing kicks and occasionally coming close enough to land a punch but spent much of the fight on the outside avoiding engaging with Lombard. He used exactly that strategy to win the first round. Lombard won the second by landing the most significant strike of the fight, which was a glancing body kick that hurt Boetsch enough to allow Lombard to gain top position. But Lombard was uncharacteristically hesitant seeming to look for the perfect opportunity to strike instead of just using his incredible power to bomb punches through Boetsch’s guard. The third round was the most confusing of the fight as both fighters knew they needed the round and neither seemed willing to take a chance to win it. Neither showed any urgency and they basically traded low kicks until Lombard scored a takedown late in the round. Based on that, I gave Lombard the round and had him winning by decision. But the Canadian judges disagreed and gave Boetsch a split decision victory. Regardless of the outcome, neither fighter has any cause to blame the judges because the fight was available to be won and neither wanted to take a chance.

For Boetsch, this puts him close to the top of the division. Personally, I would rather see Chris Weidman get the next title shot as he seems to really want it while Boetsch appears to be trying to tiptoe his way into it. I guess a fight between Weidman and Boetsch to determine a number one contender would be acceptable but I have a hard time rewarding Boetsch for that performance. For Lombard, this is a huge loss. He was supposed to come in and immediately be the biggest threat to Anderson Silva but he looked far from that. Only time will tell whether this was the first step in Lombard being exposed as a small show hype machine or whether he was just nervous in his first fight on the big show. The most concerning thing to me was that he looked small. He carries a lot of muscle and if he was willing to drop some of that, he could easily cut to 170 lbs. Part of success in the UFC is finding the optimal weight class and if Lombard struggles at 185, he will have to seriously consider making the cut.

Cheick Kongo vs. Shawn Jordan

Cheick Kongo bounced back from his TKO loss to Mark Hunt with a plodding decision victory over Shawn Jordan. Most of the fight took place against the cage as the fighters battled for position and worked for takedowns that they would never get. Jordan pressed the action in the first round keeping Kongo’s back to the cage and working for takedowns. Even though he was completely unsuccessful, he controlled the fight and I gave the round to him. After working so hard in the first round, Jordan seemed to tire and Kongo began to get the advantage pushing Jordan against the cage. Kongo also managed to separate and land a couple of damaging knees and combinations. He never hurt Jordan but he did enough to win the round. The third round was fought between two exhausted fighters and consisted mainly of Kongo pushing Jordan up against the fence. Neither fighter did any real damage but Kongo had Jordan’s back to the cage for most of the round giving him the edge in scoring, which was enough to win the fight. Neither fighter was impressive and both showed a surprising lack of conditioning.

Kongo appears to be solidified as a mid-level heavyweight who has already reached the peak of his UFC success. If he faces a major step up in competition in his next fight, he will likely lose. Jordan is actually the more promising of the two fighters. Hopefully he will learn from this experience and use it to motivate him in taking his conditioning to another level. Some young fighters need to feel the frustration that comes from losing a winnable fight because of an empty gas tank to understand how hard they need to work in the gym. Jordan now knows that what he has been doing thus far isn’t enough and I expect him to show significant improvement in his next fight.

Ebersole vs. Head

In the first of two big upsets on the night, James Head defeated Brian Ebersole via split decision. Ebersole’s willingness to take fights on short notice finally caught up to him in this fight. He was clearly the smaller fighter as he is in the midst of cutting to lightweight and the fight looked exactly the way one would expect a fight between a lightweight and a welterweight to look. Head was much stronger and landed the more damaging strikes. Ebersole was totally unsuccessful in gaining any sort of grappling control over his opponent and was reduced to weak attempts to pull guard to try to get the fight to the ground. Despite all of that, the fight was actually even going into the final round. Ebersole’s unorthodox movement and striking was enough to earn him the second round after Head had won the first round. The third round was a disappointingly lackluster display from both fighters considering that the outcome of the fight was at stake. By the middle of the third round, Ebersole seemed bored and resigned to the fact that even though Head was not a threat to him in any way, the size difference was too much to overcome. Head seemed to realize the same thing but refused to try to take advantage of it settling instead to stuff Ebersole’s takedowns and throw an occasional combination. Ebersole finally got a takedown at the end of the round and moved to mount, which was the most significant point in the round and because of that, I gave the round and the fight to Ebersole. But Head won a split decision on the judges’ scorecards and Ebersole has no room to argue after his weak effort in the third round. Let’s hope this was a result of Ebersole being in the middle of a weight cutting process and nothing more. For Head, this was a chance to earn an impressive victory over an unprepared opponent and he was unable to do anything that makes him look like he’ll be a factor in the UFC.

Matt Riddle vs. Chris Clements

Matt Riddle took a step forward in his UFC career by controlling his fight with Chris Clements and eventually finishing via an impressive arm triangle in the third round. Riddle controlled most of the first round landing several takedowns and keeping Clements off balance. Clements seemed to be the better striker but was never able to get comfortable and Riddle landed the biggest strike of the fight when he hurt Clements with a liver kick. The second round saw more of the same with Riddle eventually taking Clements back after controlling much of the round on the ground. The third round started with Riddle making an ill fated attempt to entertain the crowd by engaging in exchanges with Clements and coming out on the losing end. He eventually smartly took the fight to the ground again to regain control. Clements managed to get back to his feet and attempt a spinning back fist but Riddle countered by locking up an arm triangle in the standing position. From there, he used an outside trip to take Clements down into side control and ended the fight with an impressive submission victory. Riddle showed improvement in this fight and if he continues to focus more on the type of execution that locked up that submission and less on entertaining the fans, he could make some headway in the welterweight division. Clements showed decent striking but will need to work hard on his wrestling if he wants to last in the UFC.

UFC 149 MMAFix Picks

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165) Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although.

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165)
Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although Faber is considered the underdog in the fight, I say Faber by decision or Barao by submission choke in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Faber

Emily: The oddsmakers are right on in choosing Renan Barao as the favorite. Not only will he come out with the victory, but he is the highest value bet. We will no doubt be seeing him fight for the bantamweight title as soon as the champ recovers. Winner: Pagado

John: This is a tough one. Renan Barao is the clear favorite mainly due to his sick ass 29 fight win streak, and don’t get me wrong he is a bad dude, but people need to remember that we’re dealing with the alpha male of team Alpha Male—so show some respect b*tches!! Both of these guys are finishers, but I think they’ll more than likely cancel each other out in that regard. It will all come down to the takedown battle. If the “California Kid” can score enough takedowns to keep Barao from really getting going on the standup, I think he is good enough to avoid his opponent’s rather spectacular submission game for the decision victory. If he can’t, then Barao will pick him apart the whole time while periodically stuffing takedowns for a unanimous nod from the judges. I give a slight edge to Barao for his standup, but I definitely don’t think the betting line is where it should be for this fight. Urijah Faber is a killer, period! He fought Mike Brown for five with two f*cked up hands and went five with Aldo at 145lbs…that said I still have Barao coming up with the decision. Winner: Pagado

Ryan: The day Barao beat Brad Pickett, I knew he would be champion. I think Faber is of the elite, but Barao is a 135 pound Jose Aldo, and Aldo gave Faber a beating. Barao by decision. Winner: Pagado

Alan: Faber is a fan favorite and it’s always hard to pick against him but Pagado is superior in almost every area. He’ll win this fight relatively easily probably taking at least four rounds on the way to a decision. If the line was a little more lopsided, I might be inclined to take a flyer on Faber but +165 isn’t enough to make it worth it. Winner: Pagado

MMAFIX Staff Pick: Pagado (4-1)

Hector Lombard (-390) vs. Tim Boetsch (+320)

John: Replacing the injured Brian Stann, Tim Boetsch is going to have his hands full with Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard. On an impressive 24 fight win streak of his own, Lombard has the power to put the “Barbarian” away, but as Boetsch showed in his last bout against former title challenger Yushin
Okami, you can beat the sh*t out of him the whole fight, and he can still knock you out in brutal fashion. Lombard, a former Olympian, has the resume to beat Boetsch on paper. The question here is whether or not Lombard f*cks people up the way he does because he has been fighting lower level competition or because he really is just that good. Either way we’ll find out Saturday.

Even though I’m rooting for Boetsch, I have to go with Lombard by first round KO or second round TKO—bro, he called out “the Warmaster,” heavyweight Josh Barnett….that’s right heavyweight.

For those of you who don’t understand, this means two things:

1. Hector Lombard has huge balls
2. Hector Lombard is just about the rawest motherf***er out there….sometimes you just have to believe in the crazy person.

Winner: Lombard

Ryan: I think that people make Lombard out to be better than he really is, and he hasn’t quite proved himself to be in the top 10 of the division yet. With that However, Tim boetsch is only in the top 10 from a crazy come from behind KO of Yushin Okami. With that being said, I agree with Lombard being the favorite, but not sure if the it’s too much in the favor of Lombard or not. Lombard knows if he is impressive in this fight he could get a title shot, so look for Lombard to end this fight quite. Lombard by TKO. Winner: Lombard

Alan: Like everyone else, I’m picking Lombard to win. But I love the line on Boetsch. Lombard hasn’t faced anyone near this caliber and this is his first UFC appearance. If I’m betting this fight, I’m going with Boetsch and hoping for the upset. He’s an underdog but not a +320 underdog. This is a perfect low risk high reward type of betting situation. Winner: Lombard

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lombard (3-0)

UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.