Tag: UFC betting

UFC Middleweight bout:  Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera

Odds:  (-350 Bisping / +275 Rivera )

Betting Pick:  Bisping

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In the co-main event, British standout Michael “The Count” Bisping will look to reassert himself into title contention against resurgent veteran Jorge Rivera. Rivera has been calling out his opponents by name recently, the UFC has given him who he wanted, and he has turned those opportunities into big wins. Bisping is a very dangerous guy, but his style is one Rivera has the tools to exploit, so this should be an exciting contest.

Bisping, who entered the UFC by winning The Ultimate Fighter, has sparked a huge growth of Mixed Martial Arts in the United Kingdom. A skilled kickboxer with very underrated jiu-jitsu and a developing wrestling game, Bisping has a lot of skills and constantly continues to improve. The knock on him has always been that he is a striker with no power, which is true, but he has added wrestling and some devastating ground and pound to his already formidable skillset. He isn’t going to turn anyone’s lights out with his punching, but he has great hands and good technique and can pile it on guys until they are worn down. Against Rivera he is going to need to avoid Rivera’s big power punches and try to capitalize on his superior handspeed and accuracy.

Rivera, a longtime journeyman who has been enjoying a very impressive career renaissance, is an extremely tough and heavy-handed slugger with an iron chin and a lot of heart. He has had a lot of mixed results over the years, but has put together an impressive string of performances, going 4-1 in his last 5 with impressive wins over Kendall Grove, Rob Kimmons, and Nate Quarry. Rivera’s submissions are not great, and neither is his submission defense, but he has solid wrestling and ground and pound to go along with his huge power punching.

This is an interesting style matchup. Neither guy has dominant wrestling at all, and they should sort of cancel each other out there. Bisping is undeniably better on the ground, and in the standup Bisping is faster and more technical while Rivera has more power and is more aggressive. In the end, I think Bisping is just a little too fast and accurate for Rivera to handle, and the fact that he might be able to turn Rivera’s aggressive, looping punches into short takedowns and to do damage from top position, I think Bisping should be able to do enough to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Michael “The Count” Bisping via decision.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver

Odds:  (-340 Sotiropoulos /+260 Siver )

Betting Pick:  Sotiropoulos

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In what could be a Fight of the Night contender, two of the Lightweight division’s most dynamic and well-rounded contenders will go at it in a bout that could well have immediate title shot implications, especially for Sotiropoulos. Both of these guys have been on a tear recently, and both have similar styles in that they are prolific jiu-jitsu experts who have added very effective striking to their games. Siver looked like a beast in his last fight, but Sotiropoulos is definitely his toughest challenge to date, so this should be a telling fight.

Siver, who trounced well-regarded prospect Andre Winner with ease in his last fight, is an extremely dangerous and versatile fighter. He has explosive and powerful kickboxing and an extremely solid grappling base. His submission defense is notoriously spotty, but in terms of offensive capability Siver is one of the more dangerous fighters at 155. He can hurt opponents standing, off his back, or from top position. It is quite likely that, even though Siver is great on the ground himself, he will try to make this a kickboxing match just because Sotiropoulos’ ground game is so dominant.

Since being eliminated from the Team Serra vs. Team Hughes season of The Ultimate Fighter, George Sotiropoulos has really come into his own as one of the best fighters in the world at 155 pounds. His jiu-jitsu is superlative, and he has continually improved as both a wrestler and a technical boxer. He’s not the kind of guy who is going to destroy someone with strikes, but when he starts establishing his jab he can effectively keep opponents back and set up his takedowns. On the ground, very few fighters in the division can hang with Sotiropoulos.

I’m not entirely sure Sotiropoulos would lose even if this was a boxing match. Siver is more dangerous in that he has more power and can explode with creative strikes, but Sotiropoulos is the technically superior striker and I think his jab is going to force Siver to fight a bit more defensively. This isn’t a kickboxing match, though, and what is important is that Siver doesn’t have what it takes to keep Sotiropoulos from taking him down, controlling him, and submitting him. Sotiropoulos by submission.

Prediction:  George Sotiropoulos via second round armbar.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi

Odds:  (-215 Noke / +175 Camozzi )

Betting Pick:  Noke

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In the opening bout of the evening, two Ultimate Fighter Season 11 cast members will meet as well-rounded Australian Kyle Noke takes on the tough and versatile Chris Camozzi. Camozzi was unable to compete on The Ultimate Fighter due to a broken jaw he suffered in the prelims, while Noke suffered an upset defeat at the hands of Kris McCray to end his chances. Still, both guys have diverse skill sets and a good amount of fighting experience, so this should be a very competitive bout.

Chris Camozzi had one of the most brutal and competitive fights to enter the house on Ultimate Fighter Season 11, and it ended up costing him. Although he won the fight and the right to compete on the show, he suffered a broken jaw that knocked him out of the competition. On the season finale, he proved he belonged by easily outpointing James Hammortree, and he followed that up with another impressive win over Dongi Yang. Camozzi is not dominant at any one thing, but he is very well-rounded with solid boxing, a good chin, good wrestling, and effective submissions.

Kyle Noke was one of the early favorites to win Season 11, but his hopes were dashed when he found himself thoroughly outwrestled by Kris McCray. A former bodyguard for The Crocodile Hunter, Noke has a lot of experience all over the world even if he is relatively new to the UFC. He is a good boxer with fairly heavy hands, but his best work is done on the ground. He has very effective submissions, sweeps, escapes, and positional control. The only flaw in his ground game is his wrestling, which is not up to snuff either offensively or defensively.

In the end, I think Noke is going to be too much for Camozzi to handle. Neither guy is a real striking dynamo, but Noke is the steadier and more consistent boxer. On the ground I think Noke also has the edge. Camozzi has good jiu-jitsu, but Noke’s is better, and that will make the difference. Noke by submission.

Prediction:  Kyle Noke via third round rear naked choke.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Heavyweight GP Reserve bout:  Shane del Rosario vs. Lavar Johnson

Odds:  (-215 Del Rosario /+175 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Del Rosario

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In another Grand Prix reserve bout, undefeated slugger Shane del Rosario will look to position himself for a spot in the tournament against experienced knockout artist Lavar Johnson. What makes this fight so interesting is that both guys have knockout power in their hands and both guys represent a big step up in competition for each other. Neither guy has faced anyone as dangerous as the other, so this is a really interesting bout that could shine a light on both guys’ futures.

Lavar Johnson, making his first appearance in Strikeforce after 3 dominant knockout wins on the Strikeforce Challengers Series, is a very seasoned veteran who has been competing since 2004. After losing his first bout by TKO, Johnson came into his own, dropping only two bouts since, both by submission and one because of an injury sustained during the fight. There is no question that Johnson’s best tool is his punching, which is hugely powerful. If Johnson lands a power punch, whoever he hits is in trouble, no matter who they are or how good their chin is. His ground game isn’t very good at all, but he is a big guy with a lot of strength and his punching can make guys pay for trying to force takedown attempts.

Shane del Rosario, undefeated in 10 bouts as a professional, has never even gone the distance in one of his fights. Only once has he seen the other side of the first round. The majority of his wins are by T/KO, but he also brings a very slick and technical ground game to the table, which could well be the deciding factor in this fight. del Rosario is not as gritty and powerful as Johnson is, but he is a far superior fighter from a technical standpoint.

I think this is going to be a tough fight for Johnson as long as del Rosario works a smart game plan. Clearly del Rosario is a force to be reckoned with on the feet, but engaging in a standup fight with Johnson would be putting himself at risk of eating a huge power punch and taking a quick nap. It is entirely likely del Rosario could hold his own in the striking exchanges with his superior quickness, technique, and footwork, but he has the tools to put Johnson on his back where he is far less comfortable. I think del Rosario will work a takedown and top control game, taking Johnson out of his element, softening him up with ground and pound, and eventually securing a choke for the submission victory.

Prediction:  Shane Del Rosario via second round rear naked choke.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…