Tag: UFC betting

Middleweight bout:  Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds:  (+165 Leben / -205 Akiyama )

With Wanderlei Silva being forced to pull out of his upcoming bout due to a host of injuries sustained in training, notoriously tough slugger Chris “The Crippler” Leben steps up to the plate barely two weeks out from his upset victory over Aaron Simpson.  Leben is one of the toughest guys in the division to finish, but Akiyama has a formidable ground game that might be enough to put a stop to his recent momentum, so this is a great last-minute fight.

Leben, who pulled off a substantial upset barely two weeks ago by shutting down Aaron Simpson’s wrestling game and bruising him up badly in the standup, is easily one of the toughest fighters on the planet.  While he is not very technical, he has great punching power, an iron chin, and an absurd amount of heart.  He never stops moving forward and trying to take his opponents’ heads off, no matter how vicious a beating he is taking.  While his offense is largely limited to huge power punching, he does have great submission defense and an uncanny ability to get out from underneath his opponents, which is going to be a huge boon against a guy with a ground game as good as Akiyama’s.

Akiyama, who became a superstar with a string of dominating performances in Japan, is a very dynamic fighter with good standup, great wrestling and judo, and very effective submissions.  In his first UFC appearance, he didn’t look spectacular against Alan Belcher, but Belcher is a guy who is capable of testing Akiyama’s strengths, whereas Leben is not a threat to finish him on the ground.  It’s possible that Akiyama can outbox Leben, based on his advantages in speed and technique, but he lacks the power to put Leben away with strikes, which means if he opts to stand he is giving Leben chances to keep pressing the action and catch him with a huge power shot.

As tough as Leben is, I think this is Akiyama’s fight to win.  Akiyama’s boxing is actually quite crisp, but most importantly, he is the one who can use his wrestling and judo to dictate the pace of the fight.  He will get his shots in on Leben due to his hand speed, and any time he finds himself in trouble he is more than equipped to clinch up and send Leben for a ride.  I don’t think Akiyama has what it takes to finish Leben, standing or on the ground, but his technical boxing, takedowns, and top control should be more than enough to earn him the decision victory.

Prediction:  Yoshihiro Akiyama via unanimous decision.

  To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Heavyweight Championship bout:  Brock Lesnar  vs  Shane Carwin

Odds:  (-155 Lesnar / +125 Carwin )

In the main event, the muddled Heavyweight title picture will finally be cleared up as Champion Brock Lesnar, fresh off a long layoff due to illness, will finally unify his title with challenger Shane Carwin’s interim title.  This fight has been a while in the making, and these are two of the most powerful and explosive men in the sport, so this promises to be a stellar main event.

Carwin, who has a strong amateur wrestling background, has made a name for himself in the UFC with his hands rather than his wrestling.  An outstanding puncher with a vast surplus of knockout power, Carwin has shown that he can take punishment on the feet and dole it out to great effect as well.  The big question mark in this fight is his wrestling.  Although he has a very strong amateur background, he has never really shown off his wrestling very much in MMA, and Lesnar is a freakish monster in that department.

Lesnar, who bullied his way to the UFC title with a combination of hulking size, brute strength, and unmatched wrestling acumen, is one of the most formidable human beings you are ever likely to see.  It is easy to forget that he is still relatively new to the fight game and that his technique is still coming along in a lot of ways because he has looked so utterly dominant.  In his rematch against Frank Mir, he showed amazing positional control while turning Mir’s face to mincemeat on the ground.  Carwin has a wrestling background, but Mir has proven that he can compete on the ground in MMA at the highest level, and Lesnar still blew him out of the water.

I think Carwin has got his hands full in this one.  While he certainly has a puncher’s chance and then some, I think his much-touted wrestling background is going to wilt in the face of Lesnar’s size, strength, and aggression.  Lesnar can and will take him down, and once he does it is elementary, because no one, Carwin included, is going to work off their back with Lesnar on top of them for more than a minute or two.  Expect a standup exchange out of the gate, but the second Lesnar takes a shot he will dump Carwin on his back and maul him for the stoppage.

Prediction:  Brock Lesnar via second round TKO.

• Bet on Brock @ -155 for the Win

  To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Light Heavyweight bout:  Krzysztof Soszynski vs.  Stephan Bonnar

Odds:  ( -240 Soszynski / +190 Bonnar )

In the main card’s second bout, Ultimate Fighter Season 1 runner up Stephan Bonnar looks for redemption against “The Polish Hammer” Krzystof Soszynski, who won their last fight after a very controversial doctor’s stoppage due to a cut that replays showed had been caused by an inadvertent headbutt.  Before the cut, it was an extremely competitive fight, so that makes this rematch even more exciting.

Bonnar, who took Forrest Griffin to the absolute limit in the Ultimate Fighter season 1 finale, has had a very up and down career since.  While Dana White has assured that Bonnar will always have a spot in the UFC, a fourth straight loss could spell the end of his relevance.  Still, he has a formidable arsenal at his disposable, including very underrated jiu-jitsu, a great chin, and rangy, effective boxing.  His biggest concern against Soszynski is going to have to be his takedown defense, though.

Soszynski, an IFL veteran who also made it to the UFC through the reality show, has put together a pretty decent record so far.  A quality wrestler with good punching power and great submissions from top position, Soszynski is a very workmanlike fighter, but he is not very dominant at everything.  The first fight with Bonnar was extremely close before the cut, so he is going to have to come in with a better game plan if he wants to do enough to win here.

Ultimately, I think this fight favors Soszynski based solely on his wrestling.  Bonnar is good enough off his back that he is not going to get dominated, and while Soszynski has more punching power, Bonnar has a reach advantage and better striking technique.  Soszynski’s superior wrestling will make the difference, because in really close fights those extra points from the takedowns make a huge difference in the scoring.  Soszynski by decision.

Prediction:  Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Welterweight bout:  Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

Odds:  (Lytle / Brown )

The third bout of the evening pits tough journeyman Matt “The Immortal” Brown against long-time veteran Chris “Lights Out” Lytle in the Welterweight division.  This is actually a rematch of a 2007 fight in which Lytle choked Brown out with a guillotine, so it will be interesting to see how far Brown’s game has come since then.

Brown is a very tough guy with a solid chin, very good Muay Thai, and underrated submissions.  The only things preventing him from being a top-level fighter at 170 pounds are his lack of wrestling and his porous submission defense.  When given a chance to strike or control the action, he is a very dangerous fighter who can impose his will with punches and clinch work and pull off some nice submissions, though.

Chris Lytle is a veteran of over 10 years in the sport, and is one of the toughest and most notoriously difficult fighters to finish in the history of the sport.  Against Brown, he is going to be in trouble if he tries to stand, because his boxing isn’t as good as Brown’s and he gives up a decent bit of reach.  He is very difficult to deal with on the ground though, with solid ground and pound, positional dominance, and excellent submissions.

I think that this is Lytle’s fight to win.  Brown is much more dangerous in the standup, but he has a tendency to get controlled physically, and Lytle is the kind of guy who can do that.  Brown will get his shots in, but Lytle will get this fight to the ground and eventually catch Brown in a submission for the win.

Prediction:  Chris “Lights Out” Lytle via second round rear naked choke.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs.  Kurt Pellegrino

Odds:  ( Sotiropoulos / Pellegrino )

In the opening bout of the evening, two of the Lightweight division’s most prolific grapplers will go at it as Australian George Sotiropoulos faces another test in New Jersey’s Kurt Pellegrino.  Both of these guys are well-rounded fighters with incredible submissions, so this could be an entertaining bout, as well as an important one for determining Sotiropoulos’ place in the division.

Pellegrino, a long-time UFC veteran who uses his solid boxing and good wrestling to set up his extremely dangerous submission attack, is in a lot of ways the perfect gatekeeper for the division.  While he has had some trouble when stepping up to the very top level of competition, his game is very complete and has no glaring holes.  Against the middle tier of competition in the Lightweight division, he has looked dominant, so you know that anyone who can make it past Pellegrino is a legitimate contender.

Sotiropoulos, who debuted as an Ultimate Fighter cast member, has looked like a beast since his appearance on the show.  His submission game is easily one of the best in the division, but the story lately has been the vast improvements he has shown in his wrestling and boxing.  Against Joe Stevenson he looked great on his feet while completely shutting down Stevenson’s formidable ground game at the same time.

Pellegrino is a skilled and well-rounded veteran, but I think he is outgunned by Sotiropoulos here.  Sotiropoulos has the crisper and more technical boxing and the better ground game.  Pellegrino will give him a fight, but I expect Sotiropoulos to control the action standing and on the ground for an impressive unanimous decision victory.

Fight Prediction:  George Sotiropoulos via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…