During the controversial formative years of the UFC, the sport of Mixed Martial Arts looked a lot different. One could argue it wasn’t even MMA just yet. But somewhere between John McCain branding it “human cockfighting” and the modern MMA that shows up live on network TV in primetime, many aspects of the sport evolved.
So let’s take a very simple look at the activity pace of UFC fighters over time. The graph above shows the average annual total strike attempts per fighter per minute. The trend is pretty obvious.
The average total strikes thrown per minute has been climbing steadily over the years. Fully telling the story of why will take some more analysis and a few more charts, but two big reasons contributing to the trend are smaller weight classes and evolving time in position.
(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
During the controversial formative years of the UFC, the sport of Mixed Martial Arts looked a lot different. One could argue it wasn’t even MMA just yet. But somewhere between John McCain branding it “human cockfighting” and the modern MMA that shows up live on network TV in primetime, many aspects of the sport evolved.
So let’s take a very simple look at the activity pace of UFC fighters over time. The graph above shows the average annual total strike attempts per fighter per minute. The trend is pretty obvious.
The average total strikes thrown per minute has been climbing steadily over the years. Fully telling the story of why will take some more analysis and a few more charts, but two big reasons contributing to the trend are smaller weight classes and evolving time in position.
Overall, smaller weight classes tend to average a slightly higher pace of activity. And that’s even accepting the fact that fights in smaller divisions last longer than heavier weight classes due to lower finish rates. So despite testing their cardio harder in longer fights, smaller fighters manage to press the pace more than heavier ones.
A second big factor is that over the same period of MMA evolution, the portion of fights spent in a standup striking position has also increased. This may surprise some the same people who boo loudly every time fighters go to ground, but the average number of minutes fights spend on the mat has been steadily decreasing with time. While standing, both fighters are able to engage in striking activity. This too boosts the average pace of action as measured by striking activity.
On its current pace of advancement, UFC fighters will be averaging 10 total strike attempts per minute by 2016, unless other forces act to counter the historical trend. But there’s one more trend that is likely to continue pushing things forward: competition.
Over the last decade, competition has increased as the sport has grown in popularity, and more full-time athletes are competing in the Octagon. Training has improved, expectations have risen, and the amount of fame and fortune at stake in any given fight climbs steadily upward. These powerful competitive forces have also elevated the pace of fighting and the quality of action in the UFC.
To me, the most impressive thing about Demetrious Johnson’s performance against John Moraga in the main event of UFC on FOX 8 last weekend was the fact that Johnson won the fight via fifth-round stoppage — only the fourth time in the history of the UFC that a match has ended in the fifth stanza.
The win also got me thinking: What are some of the other latest finishes in UFC history? Luckily, I did the work so you don’t have to. Here’s a list of the top 10 latest stoppages in UFC history since UFC 21, the first event to utilize the now-standard five-round, five-minute format for title fights.
(Note that since UFC 138 in 2011, many non-title fight main events have also been scheduled for five rounds, but only one such bout made this list.)
1. UFC on FOX 8: Demetrious Johnson def. John Moraga via submission (armbar), 3:43 of round five
Believe it or not, you were all witnessing history on Saturday when Johnson submitted Moraga, as “Mighty Mouse” now holds the record for the latest stoppage victory in the history of the UFC. That’s an amazing feat when you considering that the UFC has staged thousands of bouts over the years, and it’s even more amazing when you consider that the flyweights aren’t known for finishing their opponents. The fight was a testament to Johnson’s will and determination to look for the finish for the full 25 minutes, the mark of a true champion.
To me, the most impressive thing about Demetrious Johnson’s performance against John Moraga in the main event of UFC on FOX 8 last weekend was the fact that Johnson won the fight via fifth-round stoppage — only the fourth time in the history of the UFC that a match has ended in the fifth stanza.
The win also got me thinking: What are some of the other latest finishes in UFC history? Luckily, I did the work so you don’t have to. Here’s a list of the top 10 latest stoppages in UFC history since UFC 21, the first event to utilize the now-standard five-round, five-minute format for title fights.
(Note that since UFC 138 in 2011, many non-title fight main events have also been scheduled for five rounds, but only one such bout made this list.)
1. UFC on FOX 8: Demetrious Johnson def. John Moraga via submission (armbar), 3:43 of round five
Believe it or not, you were all witnessing history on Saturday when Johnson submitted Moraga, as “Mighty Mouse” now holds the record for the latest stoppage victory in the history of the UFC. That’s an amazing feat when you considering that the UFC has staged thousands of bouts over the years, and it’s even more amazing when you consider that the flyweights aren’t known for finishing their opponents. The fight was a testament to Johnson’s will and determination to look for the finish for the full 25 minutes, the mark of a true champion.
Next up on the list is my personal favorite, and it’s none other than the main event of UFC 117 when Anderson Silva submitted Chael Sonnen with less than two minutes remaining in the fight, to once again defend his UFC middleweight title.
Heading into round five, Sonnen was well on his way to earning a decision victory over Silva, which would have made him the first man to defeat “The Spider” in the Octagon. But Silva showed that he didn’t want to give up his belt that night as he locked in the hail-mary submission and forced the tap out on Sonnen in a fight that, until this past weekend, was the latest stoppage in the history of the UFC.
With Josh Barnett getting popped for steroids and stripped of his title, the UFC heavyweight championship was up for grabs and the promotion booked former champion Randy Couture to take on Ricco Rodriguez for the vacant strap in the main event of UFC 39: The Warriors Return.
But instead of Couture earning another one of his signature wins over a larger opponent, Rodriguez was the better man that night, as he was able to stop Couture via submission after hitting him with ground and pound so brutal that Couture, a fighter known for his incredible heart, was forced to give up.
4. UFC 107: BJ Penn def. Diego Sanchez via TKO (doctor stoppage), 2:37 of round five
(Photo via Sherdog)
The first of two BJ Penn fights to appear on this list was his UFC 107 fight against Diego Sanchez, a fight that Penn won in the fifth round after cuts on Sanchez’ face forced the doctor to wave off the match. Penn beat the living snot out of Sanchez in this fight and the only reason it lasted so long is because Sanchez is tough as nails.
5. UFC 94: Georges St-Pierre def. BJ Penn via TKO (corner stoppage), 5:00 of round four
(Photo via Getty)
One of Georges St-Pierre’s rare stoppage wins took place at UFC 94, where he beat the stuffing out of BJ Penn so badly that the tough-as-nails Hawaiian’s corner threw in the towel at the end of the fourth round. It’s a testament to Penn’s toughness that he wasn’t the one who forced the stop to the fight, but this fight took a lot out of Penn, and the Prodigy has never looked the same as a welterweight since then.
By the way, this was the last stoppage victory recorded by St-Pierre — and it took place all the way back in 2009, meaning the Canadian welterweight champ hasn’t recorded a stoppage win since the last decade.
6. UFC 22: Frank Shamrock def. Tito Ortiz via submission (punches), 4:42 of round four
(Photo via FCFighter)
The oldest fight to appear on this list and the only fight to take place in the 1990s took place at UFC 22 in 1999 when Frank Shamrock and Tito Ortiz delivered one of the greatest fights of all time, a bout that ended late in the fourth round after Shamrock overwhelmed Ortiz with strikes and forced him to tap out.
Shamrock defended the UFC light heavyweight championship for the last time in this fight, as he retired from the sport — temporarily, anyways — and relinquished the title, only to see Ortiz later win the vacant belt and then earn the record for consecutive title defenses at 205 pounds.
In my opinion, this is one of the most important matches in the history of the UFC and if you’ve never seen a tape of this match — it’s not available on DVD so you’ll have to look hard — I implore you to do everything in your power to find one, as this is an amazing fight that deserves to be watched by everyone who calls themselves a fan of MMA.
On the next page: A non-title bout makes the list, more thrills from the lightweight division, and ten fun facts about late finishes in the UFC.
How many UFC fights end inside the distance? The overall percentage is 60%, which includes fights all the way back to 1993. But at the halfway point of 2013, that number is only 50%, year to date. I’d say “roughly 50%” but it’s not — it’s precisely 50%. Out of 176 fights so far in 2013, 88 have been finished by (T)KO or submission. That’s exactly half. How does that stack up with prior years in the UFC? Well, here’s the annual finish rate for UFC fights by year, with 2013 recorded through UFC 161.
The bad news for fans of highlight reel finishes is that the overall trend is down. But the good news is that the recent trend is completely flat, which is a level of stability never before seen in the UFC. As in troubled economies, after a steep decline “flat” starts looking like the new “up.” But there are other patterns underlying the movement of this line.
A closer look at the historical finish rate reveals how this metric is impacted by various drivers. First, notice that all fights ended in the first two years of the UFC. That’s because there was no other option; fighters fought until one of them won. There were no time limits, and no judges. When time limits were introduced in 1995, we see that immediately some fights went the distance, though they were all “draws” at first. Judges were brought in at the end of that year to declare winners of fights that went the distance, and the overall parity of competition improved throughout the decade forcing their involvement more frequently.
But it was the institution of weight classes that give us the best insight into the trends during the modern Zuffa era…
(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
How many UFC fights end inside the distance? The overall percentage is 60%, which includes fights all the way back to 1993. But at the halfway point of 2013, that number is only 50%, year to date. I’d say “roughly 50%” but it’s not — it’s precisely 50%. Out of 176 fights so far in 2013, 88 have been finished by (T)KO or submission. That’s exactly half. How does that stack up with prior years in the UFC? Well, here’s the annual finish rate for UFC fights by year, with 2013 recorded through UFC 161.
The bad news for fans of highlight reel finishes is that the overall trend is down. But the good news is that the recent trend is completely flat, which is a level of stability never before seen in the UFC. As in troubled economies, after a steep decline “flat” starts looking like the new “up.” But there are other patterns underlying the movement of this line.
A closer look at the historical finish rate reveals how this metric is impacted by various drivers. First, notice that all fights ended in the first two years of the UFC. That’s because there was no other option; fighters fought until one of them won. There were no time limits, and no judges. When time limits were introduced in 1995, we see that immediately some fights went the distance, though they were all “draws” at first. Judges were brought in at the end of that year to declare winners of fights that went the distance, and the overall parity of competition improved throughout the decade forcing their involvement more frequently.
But it was the institution of weight classes that give us the best insight into the trends during the modern Zuffa era. When finish rates hit a decade high of 75% in 2005, it was the first full year the UFC went without lightweight fights. Lightweights were officially brought back in 2006, and by 2007 the division became the most commonly competed weight class, with more fights taking place at 155 pounds than in any other division. (That has remained true every year since.) During this time, finish rates dropped 13% overall, reflecting the mix of smaller fighters. Rebounding in 2008, the finish rate hit 68% in a year where slightly more fights occurred in heavier divisions than in years prior. But this composition of divisions quickly went on a diet, and over the next two years fighters began migrating down weight classes and tilting the scales towards smaller divisions.
This period in 2009-2010 saw the greatest decline in finish rates combined with the rapid increase in televised UFC events, and likely an overall increase in the competitiveness within the UFC. In 2010 the first featherweights were introduced before the year’s end, with the WEC merger taking full effect in 2011. By 2012 the first flyweights hit the Octagon, and by then half of all UFC fights occurred at lightweight or below.
The most interesting trend to note is that despite the slimming trend for UFC fighters, the overall finish rate has completely stabilized since 2010. As we saw earlier smaller divisions generally finish fewer fights, due primarily to less knockout power, but the dropoff stabilizes in the smallest divisions. So despite more and more fights in the flyweight through featherweight divisions, the finish rate is no longer dropping with the declining share of heavier fights.
The rapid evolution of MMA has forced athletes to step up their game. We’ll explain how submissions have evolved over time another day, but it’s safe to say that the overall level of grappling talent in the UFC has also gone up, which may be a contributing factor to some of the historical decline in finish rates. What will be interesting is how this trend evolves now that the UFC is approaching a stable mix of divisions. Despite the ever-increasing level of talent and athleticism in the UFC, fighters are still finishing opponents half of the time — which is impressive all by itself.
