Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4)
This fight forecasts to be a slugfest between two light heavyweights who both have knockout power. Pokrajac showed his power in his last fight with an impressive first round KO win over Krzysztof Soszynski. Soszynski has been a durable fighter throughout his career so finishing him in under a minute showed a lot from Pokrajac. But he will face a different challenge in Maldonado who has just as many fights and a better record in boxing than he does in MMA. Maldonado lost a close fight with Kyle Kingsbury in has last UFC appearance after defeating James McSweeney in his debut. Even in the loss, Maldonado did serious damage to Kingsbury and one wonders how smart it would be for Pokrajac to stand and test his boxing.
Pokrajac would be best served to try to put Maldonado on his back and control him. Maldonado has a decent ground game but Pokrajac is definitely capable of grounding him with his wrestling and outgrappling him from there if he chooses to do so. Based on Pokrajac’s history, it seems likely that he will instead choose to stand and try to outstrike the man with a professional boxing background.
Maldonado is the favorite at -170 with Pokrajac the underdog at +140. The line is set appropriately considering that Pokrajac could win this fight if he employs the correct gameplan. But the bookmakers expect Pokrajac to stand as well and if he does, Maldonado should be able to outbox him to a decision.
Tom Lawlor (7-4) vs. Jason McDonald (25-15)
The headline fight has title implications. The fight between Cerrone and Stephens features two dynamic strikers. Amir Sadollah is an Ultimate Fighter winner looking to stay above water. But this fight has the potential to steal the show. Tom Lawlor and Jason MacDonald both give full effort to finish the fight with every technique.
MacDonald has been fighting professionally since 1999. He has seen the sport grow from a niche sport struggling to survive on PPV to a mainstream juggernaut with featured fights airing in primetime on network television. He can do everything. He isn’t the best in the world at anything but he will compete wherever the fight goes and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do in this fight because his opponent will determine where this fight takes place. Lawlor’s wrestling is the most singularly dominant aspect of either fighter’s game and he will have the choice of whether he wants to stand and strike with MacDonald or take him down and grapple. He will be better served to keep the fight standing as he has a clear advantage on the feet. Lawlor can finish with his hands and he should be able to outbox MacDonald. If he decides to play the ground game, things could get interesting. MacDonald is an explosive grappler who goes for the finish the whole time he’s on the ground. Lawlor’s wrestling is probably superior to MacDonald’s submission game but it would be fun to see them battle for position. If they go to the ground, we could see some fast transitions and entertaining scrambles.
Lawlor is the favorite at -205 with MacDonald the underdog at +165. Lawlor has the better all around game and represents a newer wave of of mixed martial artists who built on the foundation laid by fighters like MacDonald. I expect Lawlor to win by keeping the fight standing and outstriking his veteran opponent but if they decide to entertain us and roll for a while, anything can happen.
-Alan Wells