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UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.

UFC 146 Odds: Dos Santos Favored Heavily Against Veteran Mir

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout.

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout before the action unfolds in Las Vegas.

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Although Mir’s UFC odds (+350) may intrigue bettors given his experience as a fighter and specifically as a UFC heavyweight title winner, there’s no denying that the younger dos Santos is the -500 favorite for a reason.

Not only has dos Santos gone unbeaten in UFC bouts since his debut in 2008, his distinct skill set lines up with one of Mir’s greatest vulnerabilities. In each of his five career losses, Mir has fallen to punches, most recently by Shane Carwin at UFC 111.

Will dos Santos, well-known as an elite-level boxer in the octagon, be able to strike his way to an early victory? Given the momentum he’s established over the course of the past few years it’s hard to see why not.

Of course, if the two end up on the ground and Mir’s experience comes into play, we may very well see the start of a surprising new reign for the MMA veteran.

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Step Into The Cage.

Nick Diaz: Strike Two!

At UFC 143, on February 4, 2012, Nick Diaz faced a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Condit for the welterweight interim title. While he did suffer perhaps the most important loss of his career, it.

At UFC 143, on February 4, 2012, Nick Diaz faced a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Condit for the welterweight interim title. While he did suffer perhaps the most important loss of his career, it wasn’t all bad; many fans deemed the outcome of the fight an unfair decision call by the judges, creating sympathy for Diaz and anger towards Condit. The controversy alludes to the fact that Condit was practically running away from Diaz the entire fight. Personally being a huge Nick Diaz fan, I was extremely angered as well. But my initial anger wasn’t due to the fact that Carlos Condit pulled out the decision; it was the realization that Diaz didn’t deserve to win. A fighter is already treading in deep water when he lets it go to the hands of the judges. Anything could happen. And while Condit had a questionable game plan in the eyes of many MMA fans by dodging in and out of the fight, Diaz didn’t do anything to counter Condit. Even if Condit was dipping in and out, there is no room to say that he didn’t have complete control of the octagon the entire fight. Although thought to be a boring display, he was in control the entire time, whether he implemented a traditional plan or not. Diaz claimed he was going to retire following the loss, but the events that follow show that Nick Diaz has a lot of fight left in him.

With my evident disgruntlement being said, the real blow to the stomach came several days after the fight. Due to the controversial decision and obvious interest in an immediate rematch between the two, UFC president Dana White and the UFC made it happen. Nick Diaz was given another chance to develop a winning game plan, and truly show off what he was capable of. I, along with many other avid mma fans, was anticipating the fight, until Diaz was submitted to a post fight drug test and the results came in with startling news: Diaz had tested positive for marijuana metabolites. The Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) suspended Diaz immediately. While Diaz was still allowed to appeal the results, many were doubtful he would succeed. Dana White himself doubted a pleasant outcome for Diaz stating, “I get the whole thing they’re going for – the metabolites or whatever it is… Nick can’t smoke marijuana leading up to a fight. You just can’t do it.” After his hearing was delayed, due to failure to produce a medical marijuana card, and Diaz missing the initial hearing, Diaz’s attorney was suing the NSAC for failure of due process. They also argued that the marijuana metabolites aren’t listed specifically as a banned substance under the NSAC. With an ongoing case against the commission, viewers waited in apprehension whether or not they would see a rematch between Diaz and Condit or the much desired Diaz- St. Pierre fight.

Whether fans or critics thought he would win or lose this battle, everything came to a head on May 21, 2012. The NSAC was going to vote on the future of Nick Diaz, and whether or not he would be suspended. After a three hour hearing, the commission officially suspended Diaz. He would be suspended an entire 12 months from the date of the fight, as well as being charged a $30,000 fine. Nick Diaz will also have to produce a clean drug test before he can be licensed to fight in Nevada again. Diaz’s case had some holes in it, and he wasn’t able to produce enough counterevidence. Nick Diaz won’t be able to apply for a new license until February 4, 2013.

Not only did Diaz give up a shot at an immediate rematch for the interim belt, but he gave up going head to head with St. Pierre as soon as he recovers, assuming he could pull out a victory this time around against Condit. Future opportunities aside, he can’t even think about a match up for another year, not to mention being required to fork over 30% of his winnings from UFC 143. Things just went from bad to worse for Diaz.

As stated, this is Diaz’s second strike, not only with the same offense, but with the same commission. Diaz was suspended on nearly identical terms in 2007, after his win over Takanori Gomi, which eventually turned into a draw following his suspension. One can only hope that Diaz has learned his lesson, and won’t add another strike to his career, whether he chooses to continue with mixed martial arts or retire as previously mentioned. It would be a shame to see a legend fade so soon.

-Emily Kapala

Dana White: Everyday Guy, Everyday Twitter Fight

Mma fighters, and all athletes for that matter, can gain positive or negative effects from fans, magazines, and the general public by their actions. Twitter is the source of much of this negative feedback. We can all remember the time Frank Mir tweeted that he wanted Brock Lesnar to die from octagon related injuries. Or the time Marcus Davis tweeted that he hoped Dan Hardy got AIDS and died. Although these tweets were over the top, sometimes when athletes or athletic executives engage in “normal”, ordinary behavior, it can be entertaining to fans while at the same time they can relate more to that person.

Recently, Dana White did just the thing. Dana White is such a likeable guy because he is approachable, will curse like a sailor, makes inappropriate jokes, and acts like your buddy. He acts like a normal, everyday guy which gives him a lot of public appeal. White recently got into a fight with a Jersey Shore Guido looking character. This guy, supposedly named Joseph Thomas or “@tweetontilt”, started a feud with White. Thomas was apparently giving White beef about the small crowd attendance at UFC on Fuel 3.

Like I said before, Dana White is a funny guy and loves to crack jokes. Here a couple of the tweets he sent to Thomas:

“@tweetontilt those eyebrows jumped it. LOL Pauly D wants his hair back, that lady from Jesery wants her tan back and nobody wants the brows”

— Dana White (@danawhite) May 16, 2012

“@tweetontilt I’m sorry bro I can’t fight with u on twitter!!! Everytime I look at ur face I start cracking up. Now I feel bad, sorry LMFAO”

— Dana White (@danawhite) May 16, 2012

The two left on alright terms, as no serious harm was caused. However, it proves that being an athlete or executive, you can still have fun. It is just important not to go over the top. I’m sorry, but hoping a fellow fighter will get AIDS and die is excessive. This is a perfect example why everyone loves Dana. He is funny, he says what is on his mind, and he has the type of personality where you want to be around him, and be his friend. This won’t hurt his reputation, in fact it will probably just because more people to like his blunt, but lovable characteristics.

-Elise Kapala

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions –Saturday night’s Strikeforce card was much better than advertised. Especially by me. It featured the arrival of Daniel Cormier as a major contender and a fight between.

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions

–Saturday night’s Strikeforce card was much better than advertised. Especially by me. It featured the arrival of Daniel Cormier as a major contender and a fight between Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thompson that proved all of us who said we had no interest in seeing this rivalry become a trilogy wrong. Unfortunately, it doesn’t leave us with much to anticipate going forward. Melendez has no one else in the division to fight. Yes, he could fight Pat Healy. But in reality, Healy is clearly the third best 155 pounder in Strikeforce after Melendez and Thompson. Cormier has even less competition. And by that, I mean no competition. If he doesn’t move to the UFC, Strikeforce is going to have to sign someone just to get him a fight. The only interesting fight to be made after this card is Rafael Cavalcante vs. Gegard Mousasi, which brings me to my next point.

–The UFC appears to be continuing its strategy of purchasing, pillaging and disbanding its competition. And with their ridiculous success over the last ten years, I don’t blame them for sticking with the gameplan. But I think they might be ignoring one aspect of running a professional athletics empire. They are clearly modeling their organization more on successful team sport endeavors like the NFL and NBA than on the combat sports model created by boxing. They want to be the one venue where the best athletes compete for the most important championships. And to a large extent, they have already achieved that. But before those athletes are ready to be amongst the best in the world, they need to develop their skills somewhere. The NHL and MLB both have extensive minor league systems where young players compete to earn the right to play at the highest level. The NBA and NFL both use the NCAA for the same purpose. With collegiate MMA an unlikely proposition any time in the near future, the UFC is going to need a developmental system for young fighters who are not ready for the octagon. My suggestion to the UFC would be to use Strikeforce for that purpose. Make Strikeforce the proving ground for fighters trying to earn their way into the UFC. This model would create an interesting dynamic by adding a promotion/relegation element to MMA and MMA discussion. When is an emerging star ready for the big show? Should a struggling veteran be “sent down” to Strikeforce? The counter argument to this of course is why should the UFC pay to develop talent when smaller promotions are perfectly willing to do the work for them? My answer is that a clear pattern is emerging. It goes like this. Non-UFC organization X signs young fighters with raw talent for a minimal investment. Over time, several of those fighters develop as projected and begin to gain recognition. Those fighters have a sense of loyalty to the organization that gave them an opportunity. The organization rides those fighters to financial viability and begins to make enough noise that the UFC is forced to acknowledge them. The UFC attacks Organization X directly by scheduling competing events and luring away fighters. Organization X’s growth slows or plateaus, which causes financial issues. The UFC swoops in and buys out Organization X at a good price to eliminate competition. I don’t know what this process is costing the UFC but instead of going through this every few years, why not just be proactive in eliminating competition by having a place for emerging talent to compete instead of allowing that talent to sign elsewhere and being forced to deal with the problem on the back end? Even if you only break even or take a slight loss in raw financial numbers, isn’t the increased strength of the monopoly and brand singularity worth the investment?

–I have a feeling that this is going to become a consistent theme of this column for as long as I’m allowed to write it but I feel compelled to address another judging issue. And by “issue,” I mean the absurdity of lazily copycatting boxing’s system. MMA should not be scored on a 10-9 round by round system. Based on the judging criteria, Melendez won the first three rounds last night and Thompson won the last two. But Melendez barely won those three rounds and did no damage to Thompson. In the final two rounds, Thompson completely controlled the fight and came the closest to finishing it. I know that damage isn’t everything but Thompson obviously inflicted a significantly greater amount than Melendez. That has to count for something. We’re scoring a fight. Damage matters. If you ask me to assess who won that fight without regard for any scoring system, I’d be adamant that Thompson won. But within the confines of the scoring system currently in place, Melendez won. And to me, that’s a problem. We need a mechanism that allows for greater flexibility. I don’t know exactly what that is but I do know that Thompson was robbed on Saturday night. Not by the judges, who did a great job throughout the event, but by the framework within which they were forced to operate.

-Alan Wells

Is Jon Jones’ character in question?

MMA fighters, like any athlete, are criticized for poor performance outside of the octagon. They are made into a spectacle and any mistakes are magnified due to their vast exposure and impact on the industry. Frequent examples of such negative exposure include failed drug tests, violence, and alcohol related charges. Jon Jones has been suspected of the latter. While driving in his Bentley in New York at 5:00 a.m., Jon Jones completely totaled the vehicle and was then arrested on the spot. According to police reports, he hit a pole, and due to the severity of the damage to his car, and his manner at the scene, they suspected him of drunk driving. He was bailed out later that day when his mom came to the Broome County Sheriff’s department.

According to spectators on the scene, Jones left with a bloody nose and two girls who were in the car with him suffered facial injuries. The air bag prevented Jones from suffering further serious injuries. While no one knows why he was driving around that early in the morning with two girls in his car, the main concern at the moment is their recovery.

The real twist to the story is that Jones shot a video with the same law enforcement officers earlier in the year discussing police training and protocol.

Yesterday following the incident Malki Kawa, Jones’ manager, stated, “I can confirm that Jon Jones was arrested early this morning on suspicion of DUI. While the facts of this situation are still being gathered and situated, First Round Management fully supports Jon, and we are asking for fans and media to respect the privacy of Jon and his family during this time.”

While it hasn’t been verified if Jones was actually driving under the influence of alcohol, all this negative exposure has put Jones’ character into question. Jones is notorious for setting an example of integrity for others, and seeks to be a role model. While he has maintained a primarily pristine image in the face of the media, a mistake was bound to have been made. Unfortunately, this could ultimately hurt him with future sponsorship opportunities. A fan can only hope that this will not affect the UFC light heavyweight champion in the long run, whose next fight is approaching September 1. Whether or not the UFC decides to take action against him to use as an example for others, his fans support or disapproval, undoubtedly, will be the real testimony to his offense.

-Emily Kapala