Tag: UFC Picks

Renan Barao will defend his interim belt against Michael McDonald to determine who will be facing Dominick Cruz to unify the Bantamweight title. When the two fighters square off, blah blah blah if you don’t already know this, why are you reading? Enough with the pre fight banter, let’s get down to the nity grity and get to the predictions.

 
Phil Harris   vs.  Ulysses Gomez

Gomez was far from impressive in his fight with John Moraga. His striking was mediocre at best, and he was unable to implement his Jiu-Jitsu game. Harris is difficult to take down, and even while in the guard of a proficient Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, he is difficult to submit. Harris has heavy hands, which are more deadly over an opponent who lacks skills in the stand up. Gomez will try will all his might to get the fight to the canvas, but Harris will overpower him with his striking and finish him in the first round.

Pick : Phil Harris

 
Vaughan Lee   vs.  Motonobu Tezuka

Lee is still one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He has proficient Jiu-Jitsu skills, even off his back, and he possesses crisp striking. Tezuka on the other hand, has very little striking and focuses solely on the ground game. He will shoot in for a leg and endlessly try to get his opponent down, seeing he doesn’t stand a chance on the feet. Tezuka has finished fights by submission, but most of his recent fights have gone to a decision. He gassed out rather quickly in his last fight against Alex Caceres, but the fact that he took the fight on short notice may have been the reason. Lee has the more diverse grappling game, but even if their grappling is dead even, Lee has light Tezuka up with his boxing.

Pick : Vaughan Lee

 
Tom Watson   vs.  Stanislav Nedkov

Watson lost a close split decision to Brad Tavares in his last fight, while Nedkov was submitted by Thiago Silva. My initial edge goes to Nedkov based solely on the fact that Silva is light years ahead of Tavares in skill, and Nedkov won the first two rounds in that fight. If Brad Tavares was able to get Watson down, then Nedkov will be able to do the same for sure. Watson will make it a close fight with his striking, but Nedkov will do enough to win a decision.

Pick : Stanislav Nedkov

 
Andy Ogle   vs.  Josh Grispi

Two years ago, Grispi missed at title shot by the skin of his teeth. Since then he has lost three straight fights, and I fail to see any aggression in him at anymore. Ogle on the other hand, always comes to bring it. His well rounded skills make him comfortable wherever the fight goes, and his cardio is always up to par. Grispi possess proficient Jiu-Jitsu, but Ogle’s wrestling will nullify and submission attempts, and if Grispi tries to stand with Ogle, he will be in a world of trouble. It’s essentially a win-win for Ogle.

Pick : Andy Ogle

 
Paul Sass   vs.  Danny Castillo

Like all of his fights, Castillo will try to take his opponent down, but that will play right into Sass’ game. He came so close to getting the submission in his last fight, but instead, it was Sass who got submitted. Nevertheless, twelve of Sass’ thirteen wins came via submission, and this fight will be a déjà vu of Sass’ fight with Jacob Volkmann.

Pick : Paul Sass

 
Terry Etim   vs.  Renee Forte

Etim hasn’t fought for over a year, but in his last fight with Edson Barboza, he was arguably up two rounds before getting caught with the crazy spinning head kick. I was surprised with the speed, wrestling, and striking of Etim against such a potential prospect. Ultimately, he lost the fight, but I see no reason that he shouldn’t find success against Forte. He’ll be the quicker fighter with far superior striking, especially with the significant reach that he will have in this fight. Even if Forte goes for a leg on a takedown, Etim has been known to counter with the guillotine choke, and often gets the tap.

Pick : Terry Etim

 
Che Mills   vs.  Matthew Riddle

Mills has been susceptible to submissions, but only by those who are well versed in Jiu-Jitsu. In his fight with Rory MacDonald, Mills was landing more punches on the feet, but MacDonald was able to take him down, which lead to the TKO via ground and pound. Riddle will not have the wrestling to take Mills down, or have the striking skills to compete with him on the feet. If a technical striker like Duane Ludwig fell short against Mills, I don’t see how Riddle will stand any chance.

Pick : Che Mills

 
James Te-Huna   vs.  Ryan Jimmo

I’m looking over this fight quite carefully, especially after Jimmo’s seven second knockout of Anthony Perosh. Jimmo is a second degree black belt in Shito-ryu karate, and holds a victory over former world kickboxing champion, Rick Roufus. Several of his victories didn’t come without controversy, as fans and media members commented on how Marvin Eastman and Sokoudjou should’ve gotten the decision over Jimmo. Furthermore, Jimmo credited his victory over Wilson Gouveia to Gouveia‘s lack of conditioning. Te-Huna’s only loss in the UFC came at the hands of Alexander Gustafsson; the current number four light heavyweight in the world. He has devastating power in his hands, especially his uppercuts, which he used to finish three of his opponents. Jimmo’s seven second knockout would have been much more impressive had it been over an opponent who wasn’t such an amateur striker. Going toe to toe with a heavy hitter like Te-Huna is far more difficult than striking with Anthony Perosh, and a full fifteen minutes is more than enough time for Te-Huna to land some of those jaw breaking uppercuts.

Pick : James Te-Huna

 
Gunnar Nelson   vs.  Jorge Santiago

There was a time where Santiago was considered to be among the middleweight elite, but now he trying his luck at welterweight. Assuming the weight cut goes well, he’ll still have proficient Jiu-Jitsu and good striking, but Nelson will have him beat in both categories. Nelson is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, and has a perfect 10-0 MMA record, with seven wins by first round submission. He competed in the 2009 IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Championship and Pan American Championship for Gi, no-Gi, and open weight; winning either the gold or silver medal. As if his ground game wasn’t a threat enough, Nelson is also a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate. Both fighters have wins by knockout as well as submission, but if anyone is getting finished in this fight, it’ll be Santiago.

Pick : Gunnar Nelson

 
Jimi Manuwa   vs.  Cyrille Diabate

Diabate has a nice reach advantage, but he doesn’t always utilize it. Anthony Perosh, Tom DeBlass, and Chad Griggs have all been able to get on the inside of Diabate’s reach, and this fight won’t be any different. Manuwa is 12-0 in his professional MMA career, winning eleven fights by knockout, TKO, or doctor stoppage. Diabate might be the more technical striker, but not by much, and it will be the power and aggression of Manuwa that will win him this fight, bringing him to 13-0.

Pick : Jimi Manuwa

 
Cub Swanson   vs.  Dustin Poirier

For me, this is the hardest fight to pick a winner. Both fighters are top ten in their weight class and fairly well rounded, but the striking and power of Swanson is too much to overlook. Swanson won all three of his fights in 2012 by knockout, beating tough opponents like George Roop, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira. Poirier hasn’t had the best luck while striking with his opponents. Jonathan Brookins isn’t exactly known for his striking, but he caught Poirier with several heavy shots, that would’ve put his lights out if those punches had come from Swanson. Even when Poirier wins, he is tagged with more than just a few strikes, and all Swanson needs is one brief opening to end a fight.

Pick : Cub Swanson

 
Renan Barao   vs.  Michael McDonald

Although his win over Miguel Torres was impressive, McDonald really only has a puncher’s chance in this fight. Barao is a much more technical striker and is proficient at keeping fighters on the outside with his kicks. Anyone who can pick apart Urijah Faber in the manner he did, can at least win a decision over McDonald, if not finish him.

Pick : Renan Barao

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

Edwin Figueroa  vs. Francisco Rivera

This bout is definitely a contender for fight of the night, as both fighters prefer to stand and strike. Figueroa may be the more technical striker, but Rivera is the more aggressive, and possess the heavy hands. In his fight with Alex Soto, Rivera kept a vicious pace for three rounds and he was even more impressive in his fight Roland Delorme. Although his first round knockout win over Delorme was overturned to a no contest after discovering he tested positive for a banned substance, his stellar performance wasn’t out of the ordinary following his dominate win over Alex Soto. Figueroa hasn’t fought in almost a year, while Rivera has stayed active, which may give Rivera yet another advantage. I see too many factors in Rivera’s favor to side with Figueroa, and if this fight ends up being a striking war, which many fans believe it will, this fight may not go past the first round with Rivera clipping Figueroa on the chin.

Pick : Francisco Rivera

 
Chico Camus  vs. Dustin Kimura

The UFC didn’t make Camus’ debut easy, but to everyone’s surprise, he out grappled talented grappler, Dustin Pague, where Camus executed excellent takedowns, and found the dominate position in the majority of the scrambles. Not only did he show great offensive grappling, but also proficient submission defense, as he transitioned out of all compromising positions for the brief moments he was in potential danger. The majority of Kimura’s wins have been by submission, which is a battle that he’ll come up short in, if he challenged Camus to a grappling match. However, even on the feet, Camus is deadly, as he has finished five of his opponents via strikes. Camus will only be more comfortable in his second UFC fight, and I don’t see the newcomer overcoming such a tough debut.

Pick : Chico Camus

 
Yves Edwards  vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg

Edwards is coming off a knockout performance over Jeremy Stephens, so what gives me reason to think the less experienced, newcomer to the lightweight division can defeat him? Absolutely nothing.

Pick : Yves Edwards

 
Jacob Volkmann  vs. Bobby Green

There’s wrestlers, and then there’s Jacob Volkmann. He has the ability to out grapple larger grapplers, such as Shane Roller and Danny Castillo, but also imposes his will on talented strikers like Efrain Escudero. Bobby Green is no exception, and will fall victim to the elite wrestling that Volkmann possess.

Pick : Jocob Volkmann

 

Tyron Woodley  vs. Jay Hieron

Woodley’s last fight should’ve been a wake up call to the previously undefeated welterweight. Most fighters need a loss to push them to train harder, become a more complete athlete, and come back stronger than ever. That’s exactly what I suspect Woodley is going to do, and Hieron will have his work cut out for him. Hieron is a great wrestler as well, but not quite on the same level as Woodley, and another thing that comes to mind is the fact that Woodley went three rounds with Nate Marquardt who is an excellent striker. Hieron nullified the wrestling in his bout with Jake Ellenberger, but was bested by a less talented striker. Woodley should have the advantage on the feet, or on the ground, giving him a unanimous decision win.

Pick : Tyron Woodley

 
Gleison Tibau  vs. Evan Dunham

Dunham is a fighter who usually enjoys an advantage in the grappling or the striking, depending on his opponent, but in his fight with TJ Grant, where I though he clearly would have a striking advantage, it was Grant who got the better in the exchanges on the feet. Dunham rarely faces an opponent who has superior Jiu-Jitsu, but this is one of those fights. Even with his superb Jiu-Jitsu, Tibau is no slouch on the feet, as he has the power to clip and hurt any one of his opponents. Dunham will fight his heart out, but in the end, Tibau is just too skilled and physically strong for him. Dunham will have a very active guard when Tibau takes him down, but it won’t be enough in the judges eyes to steal any of the rounds.

Pick : Gleison Tibau

 
Joseph Benavidez  vs. Ian McCall

You could argue that Benavidez is the better wrestler, after all, he is a member of team alpha male. However, McCall has excellent striking and could very easily have the skills to nullify the wrestling of Benavidez with his own. Giving McCall the benefit of the doubt, if the wrestling is dead even, who has the Jiu-Jitsu advantage? Benavidez of course. Even if McCall has a slight edge in the technical striking, it’s not so significant that Benavidez will be overwhelmed. With more ways to win, “Jobi Wan Kenobi”, is my pick for this bout.

Pick : Joseph Benavidez

 
Jon Fitch  vs. Demian Maia

Maia has been on fire since his move down to welterweight, with two first round finishes. He’s known for his ability to submit his opponents, but Fitch is statistically the most difficult fighter in the UFC to submit. Fitch’s game plan is usually to grind down his opponents with his wrestling and ground and pound, but Maia has one of the most deadly and active guard in the UFC. Mark Munoz had success in taking Maia down and avoiding submission attempts, and even though it was a middleweight bout, Fitch should be able to implement a similar strategy and steal a close, and probably controversial, decision just from being the man on top.

Pick : Jon Fitch

 

Alistair Overeem  vs. Antonio Silva

In his fight with Travis Browne, Silva reminded everyone that in addition to being a Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, he was also a Karate black belt. However in this fight, he should go back to utilizing his Jiu-Jitsu, because his striking will be no match for Overeem’s. Silva has been bullied by fighter with heavy hands, such as Mike Kyle, Daniel Cormier, and Cain Velasquez, and Overeem is the best striker of them all. He may also be the strongest opponent that Silva has faced, and therefore, Silva will be completely overpowered by the striking and strength of Overeem.

Pick : Alistair Overeem

 
Rashad Evans  vs. Antonio Nogueira

There’s no question that Nogueira has outstanding submissions and could tap any opponent he goes up against, but he struggled to amount any offense with his Jiu-Jitsu against strong wrestlers, Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Evans was able to control Phil Davis with his wrestling, so I can only imagine how much control he will have over Nogueira, which will take away his opportunities for submission attempts. Nogueira is proficient in his boxing, but Evans has a more diverse striking game, throwing kicks knees and using a lot of movement, rarely planting his feet in one spot. Evans isn’t afraid to throw head kicks when least expected, and this could catch Nogueira off guard and cause him to be more tentative in his offense. Since his return at UFC 133, Evans has looked like a different kind of animal and I don’t see Nogueira defeating the elite light heavyweight who has really been on his game.

Pick : Rashad Evans

 
Jose Aldo  vs. Frankie Edgar

Aldo is a phenomenal striker, but wrestling is his kryptonite. Every round that Aldo has lost was because a fighter was able to implement their wrestling effectively, and no one does that better than Frankie Edgar. Another question about Aldo is his cardio, one of Edgar’s strengths, so even if Edgar has trouble with the takedown in the early rounds, he will control the last three and win a unanimous decision.

Pick : Frankie Edgar

 
Feel free to comment on your own personal picks. I’d like to hear why you agree or disagree, there’s always room for dissension.

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

Rafael Natal  vs. Sean Spencer

UFC newcomer, Sean Spencer, is stepping in as a replacement for Magnus Cedenblad, who pulled out of the bout due to injury. He comes into this fight with half the professional experience of Natal, but does possess the technical striking to hold his own in this fight. Spencer has two wins by submission, but his grappling is the weaker part of his game, but he possess great takedown defense, as long as his conditioning holds up. The UFC newcomer will put up a fight, but Natal will eventually get him down if he so chooses, but if he wants to stand toe to toe, Natal will have a slight advantage on the feet as well.

Pick : Rafael Natal

 
Mike Stumpf  vs. Pascal Krauss

Despite a 17-1 amateur boxing career, the majority of Krauss’ professional MMA wins have come by submission. Krauss is only a blue belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so Stumpf may have the grappling advantage, and he will definitely look to take this fight to the ground. Although he isn’t afraid to throw, Stumpf’s striking is a little wide and creates opportunities for a technical boxer to counter. Krauss’ grappling should be good enough to avoid the ground game and force Stumpf in a striking bout, which Krauss should come out on top.

Pick : Pascal Krauss

 
Mike Russow  vs. Shawn Jordan

I’m still scratching my head as to why certain MMA websites have Russow ranking in the top ten of the heavyweight division. Are you kidding me? Russow defeated Jon Madsen and John-Olav Einemo before losing to Fabricio Werdum, how does that give him top ten credentials? Russow is a talented grappler with submission skills, but lacks in the stand up, giving a significant striking advantage to Jordan. However, this is no striker vs. grappler match, as Jordan is a skilled wrestler and will avoid the take down attempts of Russow, even if Jordan chooses to keep the fight standing. Jordan is incredibly athletic for a heavyweight, and conditioning could be a factor for Russow, so if the fight goes the distance, there‘s just one more edge for Jordan. The biggest factor is the striking, if Fabricio Werdum was able to stop Russow with just his strikes, then Jordan will most certainly do the same, as he possess even more power in his punches than Werdum.

Pick : Shawn Jordan

 
Simeon Thoresen  vs. David Mitchell

Mitchell has strong Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is novice level. Thoresen’s striking may not be anything special, but he should be able to get the best on Mitchell on the feet, but more importantly, Thoresen is also and skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter himself. Of his seventeen wins, Thoresen has won fifteen of them by submission, so if the ground game is a wash, the winner will be the better striker, Thoresen.

Pick : Simeon Thoresen

 
Ryan Bader  vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Matyshenko is a true veteran and a great wrestler, but Bader has too many advantages in this fight to end up on the losing end. He’s a better striker and most likely has the better cardio and wrestling. Age may also play a factor, which is another advantage for Bader. Experience will always help in a fight, but Matyushenko ‘s best days are behind him and he won’t have what it takes to defeat a top ten light heavyweight.

Pick : Ryan Bader

 
Clay Guida  vs. Hatsu Hioki

Guida’s cardio is phenomenal, so I doubt his cut to featherweight will affect his conditioning. Guida may be the best at smothering his opponent while inside their guard, and stifling all chances to use Jiu-Jitsu. If he can do the same in this fight, it will shut down Hioki’s entire offense. Guida is too skilled to get caught in a submission from Hioki’s guard, and Hioki will not be able to take Guida down and establish any dominate positions. If Guida uses his striking in reverse to keep the fight standing, Guida will also have an advantage in the striking. The only way Hioki can emerge victorious if by submitting Guida which I don’t see happening.

Pick : Clay Guida

 
TJ Grant  vs. Matt Wiman

After Wiman’s submission win over Paul Sass, people will be thinking twice before picking against him. Wiman spent most of the fight defending Sass’ submission attempts, so it’s very possible that Wiman can be submitted, and Grant has an excellent submission game as well. Unlike Sass, Grant has wrestling and striking skills to go along with it. We’re talking about a fighter who submitted Shane Roller and beat in a stand up war. Wiman is a good wrestler with submission skills, but not quite as well rounded as Grant, and having more tools increases the change of victory.

Pick : TJ Grant

Erik Koch  vs. Ricardo Lamas

The analysis for this fight is pretty simple, If Lamas gets the fight to the ground, he will win, if Koch keeps the fight standing, Koch will win. The million dollar question is whether or not Lamas will succeed in taking Koch down. The long layoff for Koch is concerning, but he was actively training for bouts at UFC 143, 149, and 153, but injury prevented these fights from taking place. Lamas is coming off the biggest win of his career in defeating Hatsu Hioki by decision, but he never had to worry about out struck on the feet. Koch’s striking is light years ahead of Hioki’s and this will pose a whole new problem for Lamas, as Koch was so able to avoid the ground game in his fights with good grapplers such as Raphael Assuncao and Jonathan Brookins. He’s finished three of his last four fights, and has only been defeated by elite featherweight and powerhouse wrestler, Chad Mendes. Lamas doesn’t possess Mendes’ level of wrestling, and therefore, will have an extremely difficult time getting Koch down where Lamas will have the advantage. It’s more likely that Koch will use his superior striking and footwork to keep this fight standing, where he will win there exchanges and possibly even finish the fight via knockout.

Pick : Erik Koch

 
Donald Cerrone  vs. Anthony Pettis

Both fighters possess excellent technical striking, as well as proficient submission skills, so this fight could easily go either way. This fight will play out as a technical striking battle, since Pettis doesn’t posses the wrestling to secure a takedown, and Cerrone will most likely try to keep this fight standing and use his reach advantage. Cerrone’s striking has tightened up after his loss to Nate Diaz, and he has more power in his strikes, so overall, Cerrone has a slight advantage that will win him a decision, and probably fight of the night.

Pick : Donald Cerrone

 

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson  vs. Glover Teixeira

Not too long ago, Jackson was considered to be in the top three of the UFC’s light heavyweight division, but he’s slowly been working his way off the top ten list. Teixeira on the other hand, has annihilated his competition and this fight determine if he will be a challenger for the title in the near future. It’s rare to come across a fighter a well rounded as Teixeira, he’s a skilled striker that possess massive aggression and power; just ask Fabio Maldonado. As skilled as he is on the feet, he possess even better grappling, something that will be a hole in Jackson’s game. Although his knockout power and heavy slams pose a problem for another fighter, Jackson’s style is rather one dimensional. He rarely utilizes kicks, knees, or elbows; making it easier for an elite fighter like Teixeira to predict his striking and avoid damage. As we’ve seen in his fights with Forrest Griffin, Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, and Ryan Bader; Jackson isn’t the same fighter when he’s on his back. Teixeira will have no problem getting the fight to the ground and quickly advancing his position due to Jackson’s lack of grappling. Teixeira will achieve and hold a strong full mount from which he’ll rain down punches until there is an opening for a submission.

Pick : Glover Teixeira

 
Demetrious Johnson  vs. John Dodson

Dodson is probably the quickest fighter that Johnson has ever faced, so it may be significantly harder for Johnson to get the takedown if he chooses to attempt. Even if Johnson is unsuccessful on the majority of his takedown attempts, he still posses strong kickboxing skills, and can hold his own on the feet with anyone in the division. Dodson defeatedTJ Dillashaw and Jussier da Silva via TKO, however both fighters are primarily grapplers and Dodson had a remarkable striking advantage. Johnson is equally as quick, so the chances of Dodson landing that one shot to end the fight are slim. Dodson’s striking looked tentative in his bouts with Jussier da Silva and Tim Elliot. In fact, many fans thought Elliot should have gotten the nod from the judges in that fight. Neither fighter will finish the other, but Johnson, as the more well rounded fighter, will do enough to win a decision, and retain his flyweight belt.

Pick : Demetrious Johnson

 
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek