News broke on Monday via MMA Weekly that light heavyweight contenders Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis will face off this August, as part of UFC 163.
The announcement comes as something of a surprise since Machida‘s recent triumph over Dan Henderson gave him the appearance of a No. 1 contender, positioning him next to Alexander Gustafsson as the logical challengers to the strap of the ailing Jon Jones. Most believed a tussle between Machida and the Swede would naturally follow, but it now appears Gustafsson has been given the right of way.
For Davis, earning a chance to takeout Machida, a former champion, is a coup in itself. A win would mark by far the grandest of his career and solidify him as a legitimate contender at 205.
The paring presents an intriguing stylistic matchup, but even more intriguing is the potential scenarios that the fight’s result will yield for either combatant.
Anyway you slice it, this is a crucial outing for both Davis and Machida.
What’s on the line for Phil Davis: A potential title shot, or a new lease on mediocrity
Would victory over Machida—one of two potential title contenders—vault Davis to the front of the light heavyweight line? Probably not, but second in line wouldn’t be so bad.
Davis could earn himself a date with the winner of Gustafsson vs. Jones (should it happen) by defeating Machida. In fact, it’s quite possible given Machida‘s current standing. Alternatively, Davis may have to earn one more win—likely over the Dan Henderson vs. Rashad Evans winner, or Gegard Mousasi—before he gets his crack at the belt.
Gaining either position would be a tremendous step forward, especially since Davis remains saddled with questions about his upside.
Though “Mr. Wonderful” recently won a bout on the strength of his standup, many fans continue to view him as a one-dimensional grappler incapable of taking out a true contender. Those who make this case point to his history of relying heavily on takedowns, his failed outing against Rashad Evans and his striking-based win coming over jiu-jitsu specialist, Vinny Magalhaes.
If Davis is unable to defeat Machida or at least give him a stiff test, chances are that his “overrated” label becomes a tattoo and he spends at least a couple more years jostling for position in the middle of the top-10 rankings.
That’s a lot to lose, and a harsh punishment for failing to overcome such a challenging obstacle as Machida, but there it is. And that is why a win, even lacking the guarantee of a title shot, is so important at UFC 163.
What’s on the line for Lyoto Machida: A second chance or the first nail in the coffin
The difference between a win and a loss for Machida is, as for Davis, enormous.
On the one hand, Machida is coming off a win that some believed would earn him a crack at the belt. On the other, he is just 3-3 over his past six contests.
“The Dragon” is playing at a dangerous balancing act right now, and depending on which way the scales tip, he’s either firmly entrenched as a star and is probably next in line for a title shot, or he’s beginning to look like a washed up 35-year-old.
A loss for Machida hardly ends his career, but it does place him behind three or four guys in the line for a title shot, and breaking through that line will require a lot of success in 2014. While Machida isn’t old, he’s getting up there in MMA context. That’s why defeat would be so devastating.
Victory might mean an immediate rematch against Jones, but it would almost certainly get him the winner of Gustafsson and Jones (again, should it become official). Or, if Jones suffers a setback, Machida would probably find himself in an official title eliminator with Gustafsson this fall.
When you break it down, UFC 163 marks a crossroads for both Davis and Machida, and there is only room on the path to victory for one. That individual will take a great stride forward towards the UFC light heavyweight title. The loser, unfortunately, will take an equally large step away from it.
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