Sometimes a winning streak walks a fine line between legendary and insanity, especially when it features a man like UFC interim bantamweight champion Renan Barao, who owns 30 pro career wins, one no-contest, and just one defeat.
Skeptics argued that, aside from eventual featherweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil and rising prospect Rony “Jason” Mariano Bezerra, Barao‘s record featured wins over never-hacked-its, save for Anthony Leone.
That all changed in 2011, when the UFC-WEC merger went down, and Barao came into the UFC as the most lethal and promising bantamweight that nobody heard of.
He systematically broke down former WEC featherweight champion Cole Escovedo, and then stole the show with “One Punch” Brad Pickett, who ironically hit the ground thanks to one punch from Barao and eventually tapped to one of the more nasty versions of a rear naked choke in recent memory.
A decision win over Scott Jorgensen followed, and Barao anticipated a marquee collision with the winner of UFC 148’s original co-headliner of undisputed UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber.
But when Cruz suffered an injury and withdrew from the trilogy, the stars aligned to give us UFC 149’s interim UFC bantamweight title headliner between Barao vs. Faber.
Many agree that UFC 149 on the whole turned in an inferior night of fights, likely due to the injuries that hit it, but few could argue that Barao‘s performance left anything to be desired. In fact, Barao turned in arguably one of his best overall career performances when he dominated Faber for five rounds.
Barao went on to survive a near-scare against Michael McDonald at UFC on Fuel TV 7 and inevitably submitted McDonald, booking a date with Eddie Wineland once Wineland pleaded his case towards a title crack. Now we stand just 24 hours away from UFC 165 in Toronto, where the two will do business.
On paper, Barao loses the most in this fight. Currently, many peg him as the man to beat Cruz, not only because of his endurance and his chin, but also because he brings a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game unlike that of any other bantamweight in the division right now.
In addition to that, he attacks with the type of diverse technical volume-striking that can mobilize just about anyone, though he does not show fear in wearing opponents out against the cage if he must.
However, for every reason that many feel Barao will beat Wineland, Wineland delivers a counter-argument. Often touted for his well-founded skills, Wineland not only carries an underappreciated ground game, but he also packs the kind of power that sets him apart from the common opponents that he, Barao and Cruz share.
Like Barao, Wineland also holds wins over Pickett and Jorgensen, and like Cruz, Wineland owns a loss to Faber. Still, neither Barao nor Wineland ever fought the still-reigning champion, but both know that a win may get them a shot at unifying the belts opposite Cruz.
On the other end, Cruz knows that if his injury prevents him from fighting the winner, UFC president Dana White already declared to the media that the promotion will pull the trigger and strip Cruz of the belt.
Still, does that possible event mean he will not cross paths with the winner down the line? Absolutely not. Cruz will find himself in a position to reclaim the belt he technically did not lose, but he will not get an immediate shot at the gold as others have in the past.
Instead, Cruz will get one fight before facing either Barao or Wineland, simply to show that he still possesses the same step he held when he last defended the undisputed title. Expect Cruz to fight against the winner of a major contender fight, specifically Faber’s UFC on Fox 9 bout with McDonald, before he fights to reclaim the title.
Should Cruz face the Faber-McDonald winner, he will meet this Saturday’s victor sometime before the end of 2014. With a shortage of contenders in the division, Cruz vs. the Faber-McDonald winner will make the most sense in determining the next man to contest for the actual gold.
The question remains, however, just who will hold the gold and get their chance to combat Cruz?
We will find out Saturday, and if that man can say or do anything about it, he will prove that he needed to stand as UFC bantamweight champion long ago.
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