Revenge is on the mind of Chad “Money” Mendes as he heads into his rematch with UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo on Saturday. When the two men met in Jan. 2013, Aldo landed a knee to the head of Mendes and knocked him out with just one second remaining in the first round.
Aldo spilled out into the crowd of adoring fans in the HSBC Center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Mendes was left to pick up the pieces.
Since the crushing defeat, Mendes has won five straight fights scoring stoppages in all but one of them. He’s as ready as he’ll ever be to challenge Aldo again. He says he’s gotten better since the first fight.
But is he good enough to beat one of the very best fighters in the world? He’ll have to journey back to Brazil to accomplish his goal.
It wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see Mendes pull off a win. He’s a dynamic and strong performer. Were it not for Aldo, Mendes would probably be enjoying his own lengthy run as king of the 145-pounders. That said, Aldo’s speed, home-field advantage and experience in championship fights will likely be the difference in the rematch.
From a pure striking and speed standpoint, the only fighters who are quicker than Aldo are flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and 125-pound contender John Dodson.
Fighting in Brazil again is another factor that can’t be overlooked.
Aldo is one of the most beloved fighters in his home country. The energy and potential influence on the judges is real. Lastly, the experience advantage is significantly in favor of the champion.
Aldo has gone the distance in championship fights five times in his career. Mendes has never fought that long. He’s a bulkier and more muscular guy who also figures to be charged with adrenaline for a very important rematch. There’s a decent chance he may not have great wind late. Based on those details, Aldo should win this fight by decision.
Here’s a look at predictions for every fight on Saturday’s card, as well as times and viewing information for the event. Just beneath the table is a look at the bout with the best chance of earning Fight of the Night honors.
Martins vs. Elkins Could Be Outstanding
The best fights often pit two contrasting styles against one another. That’s exactly what we have with Elkins vs. Martins. The former is a classic grappler, while Martins brings dangerous striking into the cage.
The man who is able to dictate the identity of the fight and/or handle himself outside of his comfort zone will prevail. Elkins has no chance to beat Martins if the fight stays standing. Martins could be in deep water if he spends too much time on the ground with Elkins, but his grappling is a bit better than his opponent’s striking.
Martins does own two submission wins in the UFC. While Elkins likely still has the edge on the ground, it won’t be the wipeout some might expect. As a striker, Elkins is slow and plodding. Against a fighter like Martins, that could be a recipe for eating a nasty and deadly counter strike.
Fighting in front of his home crowd, Martins is my pick to produce an explosive and exciting win for himself and his fans. Martins will defend the takedown just enough to keep the majority of the bout in stand up before he finally catches Elkins with a shot that changes the night.
It has to come relatively early as a three-round war on the ground will not favor the Brazilian. He’s thinner, thus carrying Elkins‘ weight is more likely to wear him down. It’s feasible that Elkins may take a shot or two in the first round as he tries to close distance. However, once he gets the bout to the ground, he’ll control a close and hard-to-score opening round because of top position.
In the second round, Martins’ speed and strong striking will make all the difference. Martins stands 6’0″ tall compared to the 5’10” Elkins. Martins also looks to have the longer arms. Coupled with a natural edge in athleticism, the length will allow Martins to touch his opponent before he can get in position for the takedown.
By hand or foot, he’ll connect with Elkins‘ head to grab a KO win. The struggle before the finish should still be exciting.
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