The fans in Mexico City, Mexico won’t get a chance to see UFC heavyweight champion and Mexican-American star Cain Velasquez defend his title, but they just might get treated to one heck of a main event.
Velasquez was originally scheduled to defend his title against top contender Fabricio Werdum, but a torn meniscus and ruptured MCL forced Velasquez out. His replacement is Mark “The Super Samoan” Hunt. Because Velasquez has now been on the shelf since Oct. 2013, the decision was made for Werdum and Hunt to compete for the interim title.
A similar situation happened when Dominick Cruz battled injuries and Renan Barao defeated Urijah Faber for the interim crown back in 2012. Ultimately Barao became the official champ at 135 pounds due to Cruz’s inactivity.
Hopefully, Velasquez can get back into the Octagon at some point in the near future.
In the meantime, Werdum and Hunt will make for an intriguing featured bout in the first-ever UFC card in Mexico. Here’s a look at the complete card and predictions for each bout. Just below the table is a closer look at three of the night’s marquee matchups.
The Menace Will Slip Past the Bully
The most intriguing fight on the card is the featherweight bout between Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas and Dennis “The Menace” Bermudez. Lamas had his shot at the featherweight title back in February, but he could not solve Jose Aldo. He rebounded with a unanimous-decision win over Hacran Dias in June, and he is back at it in this crucial battle between top-10 contenders.
Bermudez has been on a major roll winning seven straight fights. Most recently, he submitted Clay Guida at UFC on Fox 12 in July. He’s earned the respect of folks in the MMA community and his peers. Against Lamas his streak should stay intact.
Lamas tends to peel back his aggression against elite talents. He went for just six takedowns against Aldo. It was just the only time in his last three fights that he attempted less than 10 takedowns in a fight. To make matters worse, that was a five-round bout while the others were three.
That passiveness cost him against Aldo, and it will be his undoing against Bermudez. The Menace is a scrappy, well-rounded fighter who has solid boxing skills and good quickness. He should be able to deter Lamas from going after the takedowns as well.
Lamas won’t be able to dominate him on the ground as he has done to past opponents like Erik Koch. Bermudez will win the stand-up battle and the fight by unanimous decision.
The Juggernaut Will Fall Again
So long as Jake Ellenberger doesn’t have to face an elite fighter in his weight class, he’ll be fine. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing an up-and-coming fighter on his way to perennial contention at 185 pounds. Former Ultimate Fighter winner Kelvin Gastelum is a well-rounded workhorse who will take it to Ellenberger on Saturday night.
Ellenberger is known for his powerful right hand and wrestling prowess, but he struggles with activity and guys who are skilled strikers. Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald have handed him consecutive losses, and Martin Kampmann beat him in June 2012.
Knees in close quarters were the culprit in the losses to Lawler and Kampmann, and inside strikes will do Ellenberger in again in this one. Despite standing just 5’9″, Gastelum manages to land 3.61 strikes per minute in his UFC career, per Fight Metric.
That’s part of the reason he’s 10-0 as a professional. He’s a good enough wrestler to avoid getting manhandled by Ellenberger on the ground.
Look for Gastelum to catch Ellenberger with a hard kick or knee on the inside. It’ll lead to a TKO victory in the second round.
Werdum is Too Skilled for Hunt
The Super Samoan is a brutal and fun fighter to watch, but he is no match for the finely tuned MMA game Werdum brings into the cage. There’s no heavyweight with a better submission game than Werdum, and in recent years, he has vastly improved his striking.
An example of his development as a striker is his dismantling of Travis Browne in April. Three years ago, no one would have ever guessed Werdum would be able to handle himself in standup against Browne. Per Fight Metric, Werdum doubled Browne’s totals in significant strikes 121-60 in their matchup.
Hunt’s only chance is to land something earth shattering that changes the fight. However, Werdum is so smart, crafty and tough, he won’t allow Hunt to get him into a bad situation.
I believe Werdum was going to give Velasquez all he could handle, and he’s going to easily submit Hunt to become the interim heavyweight champion.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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