The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale airs Friday evening on Fox Sports 1 from Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas. Major TV coverage of the season’s conclusion commences at 9 p.m. ET and runs till midnight.
Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas will be squaring off for the first ever Women’s UFC Strawweight title belt in the main event. This marks the first time, too, that women’s fights are the majority of an Ultimate Fighting Championship card, with eight of the 11 bouts in the women’s strawweight division.
Additionally, the fight card features an interesting men’s featherweight bout between Jeremy Stephens and Charles Oliveira, along with a consolation matchup of sorts between Randa Markos and Jessica Penne.
Here is a closer look at the complete lineup, along with predictions for each bout and a more detailed breakdown of the men’s and women’s marquee showdowns.
Note: Statistics courtesy of FightMetric.com.
Predictions For Top Fights
Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas
Esparza was quite impressive in her unanimous-decision victory over Penne, but she will have a far different style of fighter on her hands when she takes on Namajunas.
Like Penne, Esparza‘s championship opponent is dangerous on submissions. While Namajunas has successfully submitted her prior three adversaries, she may be even more lethal with her kick combinations.
“Rose, I would say, probably has some of the best submissions in the division, and her striking is very good, as well,” said Esparza, per MMAJunkie.com’s John Morgan. “She is a very well-rounded fighter, maybe my toughest opponent to date. … I think it will be a war. I think it will be who can impose their will more.”
But as UFC president Dana White implied after Esparza‘s most recent victory, the favorite is a force to be reckoned with for her own technical brilliance:
It will be interesting to see how Namajunas‘ immense skill set matches up with Esparza‘s exceptional jiu-jitsu background, as this will be a strength-on-strength type of fight that should be close.
There is a reason Esparza was the top seed on the Ultimate Fighter 20 to begin with. It was a well-deserved designation, and she’s lived up to the hype thus far. However, Namajunas will bring an end to her run with a hard-fought triumph in a fight that will go the distance.
Prediction: Namajunas via Unanimous Decision
Jeremy Stephens vs. Charles Oliveira
Though it appears on paper that Oliveira is the favorite by both record (18-4) and current career trajectory against Stephens (23-10), this may be the latter’s chance to thrive in the underdog role.
An unfortunate, unanimous-decision loss at the hands of Cub Swanson gives Stephens plenty of fuel to prove himself on this big stage.
The cliche of styles making fights definitely applies here. Stephens is a hard striker and has superior defense to his less powerful Brazilian counterpart. If Oliveira packed a stronger punch or had a better takedown accuracy than 35 percent, his superior reach (74″ to 71″) would offer a far greater advantage.
All that Stephens really has to worry about is avoiding getting knocked down, as he hinted in his pre-fight comments, via FoxSports.com’s Damon Martin:
I’m more dangerous and deadly. I feel like I’ve got the skills to pay the bills with this fight…I don’t want to get too overconfident, but I definitely feel like this plays right into my ballpark. This is an MMA fight, not a grappling match, and I feel like I win in all areas. If I touch his chin, he will go to sleep.
Stephens boasts a 63 percent major strike defense and a 61 percent takedown defense, better in both areas than Oliveira‘s respective numbers of 58 and 52 percent.
Thus, if this turns into the slugfest that it should, the odds favor Stephens to pull off a knockout.
Prediction: Stephens via TKO
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