UFC 185 is a fun fight card featuring two title fights, but one of its most exciting matchups is the welterweight clash between Johny Hendricks and Matt Brown.
On paper, this looks to be a slugfest between two fighters who love to stand and bang. If that is what you are expecting to happen this coming Saturday, you may be in for some disappointment.
Both men are coming off losses and seek a win to become the next title challenger. They are on the cusp of fighting for the gold. Hendricks, the former UFC welterweight champion, seeks a third meeting with Robbie Lawler. Brown has not been seen since dropping the title eliminator to Lawler last July.
Styles make fights is the classic adage, and one I use frequently. However, ultimately tactics determine how fights play out. And that is why this fight won’t be a slugfest.
Hendricks had fallen in love with his power in recent fights. He loved to exchange and hope to get the knockout. That hasn’t happened since 2012 against Martin Kampmann. His other most recent KO came against Jon Fitch in December of 2011.
Brown, on the other hand, has many TKO/KO finishes on his recent record. It is how he fights. He pushes the pace and tries to break his opponent.
Even in Hendricks’ recent battles, when he felt threatened, he would go back to his wrestling. Brown’s aggression will make for easy takedowns for Hendricks. He wants a title shot, and reverting to his bread and butter will make that easy.
The path of least resistance is taking Brown down and grinding out a victory.
This is only a three-round fight.
Brown’s toughness should tell Hendricks not to stand and exchange. It is where Brown excels. He wants a dirty fight. Hendricks is a smart fighter, and he should know that he needs to take him down when he over-commits.
When fighters have a lot to lose they tend to fight more conservatively. Brown often bucks that trend, but do not expect Hendricks to do the same. A dance of a wild brawl requires two willing participants. Hendricks will not play that game.
The former UFC champion will pursue the takedown frequently. Brown’s takedown defense may prevent him from completing those takedowns, but if that happens they will still end up grappling in the clinch against the cage. Hendricks will grind him out from that position as well. As long as they are grappling it will be difficult for Brown to find offense to win this fight.
With so much up for grabs this Saturday, do not expect Hendricks to oblige Brown’s aggressive brawling style. It would be fan-pleasing, but it would not be smart. And Hendricks will fight a smart fight in Texas this weekend.
This fight is all about staying smart to earn the title shot.
Hendricks’ wrestling will disappoint those expecting to see two heavy-handed welterweights swinging for the fences recklessly.
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