They say there is an unwritten rule that fighters who have lost two title shots to the same champion don’t get a third chance.
And perhaps it’s a good thing, for the most part. It is a tough thing, trying to sell the public on the championship aspirations of a fighter who has already twice been soundly trounced by the same person.
But there are situations when the rule needs to be thrown out the window. Never has that been made more clear than after Saturday’s trouncing of Ricardo Lamas, himself a respectable top featherweight fighter, by Chad Mendes, who separated himself from the rest of the featherweight pack with a vicious first-round knockout.
It is clear that Mendes deserves another title shot. He was knocked out by Jose Aldo the first time around. The second fight was much closer and was thrilling.
But what is not clear is how the rest of the division shakes out.
We know the next title fight, and it is a big one. Aldo defends against the brash Irishman Conor McGregor in July. It is one of the UFC’s most anticipated fights in quite some time, and it is the first true fight below 155 pounds to gain much in the way of traction with casual fans.
Determining the next challenger after McGregor, however, is not easy. Here, let’s take a look at the potential contenders and their paths to a title shot.
Chad Mendes: Outside of Aldo, Mendes is the best of the best at featherweight. He is one of the best fighters in the UFC to not currently hold a belt.
For Mendes, the ideal outcome to Aldo vs. McGregor lies in a McGregor victory, no matter how much he may want a third crack at Aldo. Mendes and McGregor have history, and it is a fresh matchup. It also appears to be a favorable matchup for Mendes, though McGregor has surprised many when counted out thus far in his UFC run.
An Aldo win likely shifts Mendes behind Frankie Edgar in the pecking order, provided Edgar gets by Urijah Faber. Mendes should be pulling for McGregor to win, because it will almost certainly mean another title shot and the biggest payday of Mendes’ career.
Frankie Edgar: The former lightweight champion lost to Aldo two years ago, but three consecutive wins have him back on the verge of a second opportunity. A dominant win over Faber on May 16 would almost certainly secure Edgar a title shot, especially if Aldo beats McGregor.
Urijah Faber: We don’t know if Faber has any concrete plans to stay at featherweight after the Edgar fight, but it’s hard to imagine him turning down a title shot if one is offered. He has lost six consecutive title shots, but his popularity and knack for winning all of his non-title bouts will almost always ensure he’s in the conversation when it comes to championship bouts.
Things get interesting if Faber decides to stay at featherweight. On the Saturday Fox Sports post-fight show, Mendes said he would need to sit down with Faber and “figure out a game plan” if Faber wins. Might we see the long-awaited first bout between Team Alpha Male teammates? It feels like a distinct possibility.
Cub Swanson: Swanson’s momentum was derailed by Edgar last November just when he was on the verge of a title shot. But he’ll look to get back on the horse later in this month when he faces the surging Max Holloway. A win over Holloway would likely put Swanson within shouting distance (and perhaps one more win) of a title fight.
Dennis Bermudez: The former competitor on The Ultimate Fighter also suffered a loss in his last bout, but he’s still just outside the top five. He faces Jeremy Stephens in July and is likely at least two wins from being given serious consideration as a title contender. Still, his strength and wrestling make him someone to keep an eye on.
So, how will things shake out? And what should we keep an eye on?
The Edgar vs. Faber bout is the most important fight in determining the next title contender after McGregor. If Edgar beats Faber, and especially if he looks good in doing so, it would be difficult to deny him a title shot. He will have earned it, and he is popular.
From there, all eyes turn toward July and Aldo vs. McGregor. If McGregor wins, then Mendes has the best case for a title shot based on strength of competition. My gut feeling is the UFC would go with Edgar over Mendes in that scenario; it has been over two years since his last title shot, while it has been less than one year for Mendes.
And of course, you could have the rematch scenario. Aldo has been champion for a long time. Should he lose a close decision to McGregor, it is a no-brainer to go straight back to the well and do it again.
No matter how things shake out, one thing is for sure: Featherweight is turning into one of the UFC’s more interesting divisions.
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