Justin Gaethje is the current World Series of Fighting lightweight champion, and with an unblemished 14-0 record, he is moving up the ranks as one of the best lightweight fighters in the world. But could he contend in the UFC’s deep waters?
No.
I suppose you want an explanation for why that is?
Gaethje has a good, well-rounded skill set. You do not get to 14-0 at 155 pounds without it. He also has supreme confidence in his abilities. He recently told MMAFighting.com’s Shaun Al-Shatti that he would have run through Anthony Pettis just like Rafael dos Anjos did at UFC 185.
That confidence has led him to where he is, but he would not run through Anthony Pettis—or any of the top 15 at lightweight.
While his style makes him an exciting fighter, it does not stack up well against the elite of the elite. It also does not lend itself well to a long career.
His last two fights show that he would not contend in the UFC’s lightweight division.
He defeated Melvin Guillard, but he did not oust him impressively. Guillard, a former top-10 fighter himself, was in the fight all three rounds. Gaethje hurt him but couldn’t finish. For all of Guillard‘s physical gifts, he was never able to defeat the upper echelon during his UFC stint. Current contender Donald Cerrone put him away easily in just 76 seconds.
Gaethje was in a dog fight with him.
Most recently, Gaethje put on a Fight of the Year contender with Luis Palomino. And it was this fight that should make it crystal-clear Gaethje is not a serious contender at 155 pounds.
It was a fun fight, sure. I’ll concede that point. But it was sloppy, and Gaethje was hurt by a lightweight not in the top 20. I’m not even sure if Palomino is in the top 30 in this weight class. Palomino is the kind of fighter Gaethje should be able to outclass with ease—and he didn’t.
Gaethje comes right at you. He always pressures. It makes for fan-friendly fights. However, he has technical deficiencies that would get him wrecked inside the Octagon.
Palomino rocked Gaethje in the first round of their fight. Gaethje often has his hands low. He gets tagged a lot in fights. That would spell trouble at the next level.
Undoubtedly, Gaethje has the ability to fight with most lightweights in the world—even some in the top 10 of the UFC. There is no shortage of excellent matchups awaiting him should he ever make the jump. But to be a true contender, he has to tighten up his game and fight a lot smarter. That was not on display in his last fight. He shows the marks of a mid-tier lightweight. A valuable mid-tier lightweight.
Being a good fighter is different than being a contender. Those who seriously contend for gold in the deepest division are a different breed of fighter. A breed that would make Gaethje look silly by comparison.
Gaethje has time. The talented champion is only 26 years old, and his maturation as a fighter is not over yet. If he cleans up his game, he could very well be a threat.
As of right now, though, he does not have the mark of a contender.
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com