Saturday’s UFC on Fox event from New Jersey is a breath of fresh air. It is a beacon shining in the night, smack dab in the middle of a mostly dreadful Fight Pass card and UFC 186, which might very well be the fight card that tests just how low the promotion’s pay-per-view bottom can go.
You’ve got Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida, the handsomest fight in UFC history. The winner of that bout will likely move on to fight the winner of next month’s Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort bout, which will be Weidman.
The co-main event features Jacare Souza against Chris Camozzi, which is far less awesome than the original fight between Souza and hulking Cuban wrestler Yoel Romero but still offers a chance to see Souza maul a person in the Octagon.
And then you’ve got Cub Swanson vs. Max Holloway and Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush and Ovince St. Preux vs. Patrick Cummins and Diego Brandao vs. Jimy Hettes. It is a good card.
But one of the more interesting (and overlooked) bouts on the card is also a fight that I believe will determine another new title challenger: Felice Herrig vs. Paige VanZant.
In a world where deserving contenders are the ones who actually receive title shots, Herrig and VanZant are on the outside looking in. Actually, they’re on the outside of the outside, and they are not looking in.
Herrig is ranked No. 8, VanZant No. 12. Herrig‘s career record (10-5) is not particularly good, but VanZant is just 4-1 and has never faced anyone remotely close to having championship-level talent.
The UFC has several contenders it could slot in against new champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Claudia Gadelha was beaten by Jedrzejczyk not that long ago, and still she makes more sense than either Herrig or VanZant. Jessica Penne is one of the very best female fighters in the world. She also makes more sense than either Herrig or VanZant.
And still, I believe the next contender for Jedrzejczyk‘s title will be determined on Saturday night, particularly if VanZant wins.
Hear me out.
Herrig and VanZant are competing on the UFC’s biggest platform: Fox broadcast television. Both women will be exposed to millions of viewers. That’s a powerful thing, and it is not an accident. The UFC believes it has a potential star attraction in VanZant, which is why she’s getting the kind of treatment former champion Carla Esparza and the other fighters ahead of her in the division have not received.
There is a reason why VanZant, ranked No. 12 in the division, was chosen to receive a Reebok sponsorship before every other woman in the division. I’ll let Dana White tell you why, per UFC.com:
“Listen: People love that girl. She has a great personality—I don’t know if you saw the Instagram of her dancing out in front of her car. That’s awesome,” White said. “She has the personality. Some people have that ‘it factor’ that you can’t teach people, and Paige has it.”
The “it factor” is White’s politically correct way of saying that VanZant is attractive, and so she receives treatment that other, less it-factor-having fighters do not receive. She has Reebok. She’s being marketed in areas the UFC rarely reaches. It’s not because she has amassed a Rousey-esque level of fighting infamy; she is 4-1 with one fight in the UFC. VanZant may very well be a future champion in the division, but right now she’s a marketable face.
But when determining title shots, marketability counts so much more than who deserves what.
The history of the UFC is riddled with such cases. Randy Couture, coming off a loss to Chuck Liddell, gets a shot at Tim Sylvia’s heavyweight title. Brock Lesnar, sporting a 1-1 record in the UFC, gets a shot at Couture. Chael Sonnen gets a shot in a new division at Jon Jones after losing to Anderson Silva.
Despite this long history, we continue to act surprised when someone we consider to be undeserving is given a title shot or a big fight against a big name. We need to remember that this is a business, and the UFC is going to make the fights that people want to see.
And if VanZant or Herrig goes on network television and puts on a great performance, it is a no-brainer to match one of them with Jedrzejczyk. Millions of people will see the fight, and there is a reason it’s on the main card: Both are marketable, and it is a chance to boost their profiles on a huge platform.
Neither of them will deserve the title fight. But I believe one will get it. The UFC needs marketable bouts to headline its cards, no matter whether they’re aired on pay-per-view, Fox Sports 1 or Fight Pass. And though the strawweight title isn’t quite ready to anchor a pay-per-view, the division is developing stars. Maryna Moroz made an instant impact on the division with her shocking win over Joanne Calderwood on Saturday—and then upped the ante by calling out Jedrzejczyk.
Herrig and VanZant have a chance to create their own moment on Saturday. I believe the winner of the fight will get a title shot. I don’t think she’ll deserve it, but I believe she’ll get it, and I’m OK with that outcome. The fight business has always been about creating stars and enticing viewers to watch.
Regardless of the rankings and regardless of who is deserving of what, VanZant and Herrig have been given the platform and the opportunity to take massive leaps forward in their respective careers.
It is up to them to take advantage of it. If they do, I suspect we’ll see one of them leapfrog over more deserving contenders into a championship opportunity.
Jeremy Botter covers mixed martial arts for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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