Cards like UFC 189 don’t come around too often. Anchored by an interim featherweight championship bout between Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor, there isn’t a boring fight to be seen on the card.
Co-headlining the event will be a welterweight title fight between champion Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald. Somehow that bout has been overshadowed by an interim title fight. Much like the icy weigh-in staredown between the two, the violence that’s about to ensue is preceded by a much quieter intensity than the war of words between Mendes and McGregor.
The card isn’t short on exciting fights leading up to the main event, either. There are plenty of quality scraps on deck. Here’s a look at the complete card with projections for the night’s biggest fights.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch
Brandon Thatch and Gunnar Nelson have both shown promise in the welterweight division. Both are coming off of losses for the first time as UFC fighters. Now they’ll both try to get back on track, but only one can do so successfully.
MMA infographics compared their resumes and—as Mike Goldberg might say—they are virtually identical:
Nelson’s and Thatch’s fighting styles are anything but identical, though. Nelson is a smooth grappler. He’s earned nine of his 13 wins by submission. In addition to his experience in the UFC, he’s competed internationally in jiu-jitsu.
Meanwhile, Thatch is built for power. His modus operandi is to come forward and keep putting on the pressure until is opponent is in a heap or unable to defend a simple submission.
It’s a clash of styles that has created a great divide in the predictions, as noted by Sean Sheehan of Severe MMA:
It feels like it’s easier to fall into the Thatch line of logic on this one. Yes, Benson Henderson forced him to submit in his last fight, but not before engaging in a scrap with the former champion that earned him Fight of the Night honors.
Nelson’s striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. He averages 4.07 strikes absorbed per minute, per FightMetric, which is an extremely high number. It’s difficult to beat someone with Thatch’s power when taking that much punishment.
Prediction: Thatch by third-round TKO.
Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
The rematch between Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald is another interesting clash of styles.
On one side of the equation you have Lawler. The champion wants to stand in the pocket and keep throwing strikes until the guy across from him is no longer standing. His devastating power gives him a chance to knock out anyone if he’s able to cut off distance and fight in a phone booth.
On the other side is MacDonald, the calculating technician. Much like Georges St-Pierre before him, the Tristar welterweight will try to fight from distance, utilize the jab and mix in some takedowns and ground control.
The first time these two fought, it was Lawler who won out. Ruthless was just turning the corner in a career resurgence that has since led to a UFC championship. The once free-swinging brawler added some refinement to his game.
He battered the Canadian’s legs with kicks that did just enough to force him to reset his stance and continue to look to establish his jab. According to FightMetric, 31 percent of Lawler‘s strikes landed on the legs. That makes it difficult to establish any kind of rhythm.
This time around, MacDonald should be looking to take this one to the ground. Lawler‘s takedown defense isn’t his strong suit. He’s been taken down multiple times in each of his last five fights. Even though he’s 4-1 in those bouts, that’s not a trend that is sustainable.
Eventually, he’s going to drop one of these close decisions he continues to win. If MacDonald comes in prepared for the leg kicks and utilizes a more wrestling-heavy approach, he will be the new champion.
Prediction: Rory MacDonald by unanimous decision.
Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes
By the time UFC 189 is over, fans will know if Conor McGregor is really the next big thing. The brash 26-year-old has certainly showed his skills as a promoter. Now he’ll need to back up the talk.
It’s a tall task for the Notorious One. While he might view Chad Mendes as a simple wrestler with an overhand right, Money has serious power in his hands. In fact, his knockdown rate is actually slightly higher than McGregor‘s, per Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics:
The dirty truth about this fight is no one knows for sure what’s going to happen. That’s what makes it so exciting. McGregor has all the potential in the world to be a star in the UFC. He’s exciting in the cage, knows how to promote himself outside of it and has an international presence.
But he’s never fought someone of Mendes‘ caliber, especially in the wrestling department. It’s why a former opponent in Dustin Poirier is picking against the man who knocked him out, according to Shaun Al-Shatti MMA Fighting.
Mendes. All the way. Of course Conor can catch him and knock him out, but I just think the wrestling matters. Everybody’s talking about how Mendes took this fight on short notice, but man, this guy is always in shape. He’s been competing his whole life, he knows how to perform and compete, and I’m leaning toward him. Styles make fights. I was picking Conor in the Aldo fight, but you know styles make fights, and now I’m picking Mendes.
That’s certainly a justifiable position to take. Mendes is not just a wrestler but a plus athlete who is a tough matchup for anyone.
However, there are two things to like about McGregor. First, his undying belief that he is the best in the division. Confidence is an underrated aspect of a fighter’s game. It’s no confidence that allows a fighter to impose his will and not panic when things go south. Second is his build. The Irishman is rangy and boasts an eight-inch reach advantage over Mendes.
A rangy, creative striker who isn’t going to win a humble contest any time soon. Sound familiar? There are definitely some Jon Jones qualities to McGregor.
That isn’t to say he’s reached Jones’ status. He has a long, long way to go before reaching that. But the idea that Mendes is the one to take out McGregor sounds an awful lot like the pre-fight buildup to his matchup with Rashad Evans.
We all saw how that turned out.
Prediction: McGregor by second-round TKO.
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