Renan Barao is going to regain his UFC bantamweight title in the most highly anticipated rematch in mixed martial arts. Barao will take on current champion T.J. Dillashaw for a second time after losing his title to the Team Alpha Male stud at UFC 173 in May 2014. The bout is the main event of UFC on Fox 16 on Saturday night in Chicago.
When: Saturday, July 25, at 4:15 p.m. ET
Where: United Center in Chicago
Ticket Info: ScoreBig.com
TV and Live Stream: Prelims on UFC Fight Pass and Fox, Main Card on Fox
The feature fight is tantalizing, but on paper the rest of the card looks only so-so by Fox-feature-event standards.
Many pundits are having a tough time predicting a winner for Dillashaw-Barao II. Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda likes Dillashaw by decision, but he doesn’t sound 100 percent confident:
This one could end up being a patient, waiting game, or the two rivals could clash in the center of the Octagon from the start. In either case, it’s almost an unpredictable fight. Barao has had time to rest and recover. Perhaps he’ll be able to cut off the ring and corner Dillashaw a bit better this time.
The two headliners were set for the rematch in August 2014 at UFC 177, but Barao fell ill after a brutal weight cut and couldn’t compete. Dillashaw instead successfully defended his title against Joe Soto.
Dillashaw and Barao were again set to renew acquaintances, and this time an injury to the champion in March derailed the rematch scheduled for April 25 at UFC 186.
Barring some unfortunate happenstance between Friday and Saturday (mind you, the weigh-in is on Friday), this fight will finally take place. Judging by Barao‘s performance in the first fight, the weight cut to 135 pounds looked to have bothered him then as well.
Barao looked listless and less aggressive than he had in previous fights. Dillashaw‘s movement and athleticism had something to do with that, but I don’t think that wasn’t an example of Barao at his best.
Barao broke down the circumstances surrounding the first fight in this interview from Sherdog:
Call me crazy, but Barao‘s excuse sounds legit. The video offers a detailed explanation of how the string of events, beginning with his win over Dillashaw‘s TAM teammate Urijah Faber, subsequent partying at Carnival and rush into UFC 173, was the perfect recipe for a mediocre performance against a top-notch opponent.
What do you get when that happens? A thorough beating culminating in a fifth-round TKO in favor of Dillashaw.
Don’t expect that to happen again on Saturday. Barao looked like his old self in submitting Mitch Gagnon in December 2014. He will be sharp, motivated and hungry when he enters the Octagon against Dillashaw for a second time.
In the first fight, Dillashaw did a number on Barao with leg strikes. Dillashaw landed 24 of 28 leg strikes to hurt Barao and disturb his rhythm. Barao neither checked nor evaded the attacks well. His striking defense was poor on a whole as Dillashaw threw 309 significant strikes and landed 45 percent of them.
All of Barao‘s opponents in the UFC have landed an average of 39 percent of their strikes.
While Dillashaw is an experienced wrestler from his days at Fullerton State University and in high school, there’s a real question as to whether his ground game is superior to Barao. The latter is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and gained fame for his diverse and dangerous submission game. He’s secured 15 of his 33 wins by submission.
Curiously, he didn’t attempt one takedown against Dillashaw in the first fight.
All this points to a man who was not prepared to compete at his peak. That’s his own fault, but he has likely learned from his mistakes. Barao will not allow Dillashaw to dictate the pace of the fight with his movement, jabs and leg kicks as he did in the first fight.
He’ll also make sure the champion has to account for his ground game by forcing him to at least defend takedowns. By employing that part of his game, he may open up opportunities for strikes. It’s easy to forget just how dominant Barao had been before the loss. Barao‘s record is 33-2 overall, and he hadn’t lost a fight in nine years before Dillashaw beat him.
Both Dillashaw and Barao are young at 29 and 28, respectively. So this isn’t a case of a grizzled veteran trying to hold off a young up-and-coming fighter. Both guys are in their physical prime, and Barao will be better in the rematch.
Tate Will Tame Eye
The first 45 seconds will be key in the Miesha “Cupcake” Tate vs. Jessica “Evil” Eye bout. Eye is ultra-aggressive, and she’ll come out looking to land bombs and finish Tate early. She is such a solid and vicious striker that she might get the job done with this approach, as Tate’s striking defense (49 percent) is less than exemplary.
While Tate is known to take punishment and Eye is known for dishing it out (5.26 strikes landed per minute, third most among top-10 women’s bantamweights), Cupcake’s resiliency will be a factor in this fight.
She’ll want to take the fight to the ground, where she has a huge advantage in grappling. Tate also has a big edge in experience as she’s been in a number of main event and co-main event matches in her career.
Eye will gas out within the first minute of the fight because of her adrenaline and willingness to sell out for the KO. Tate will weather the storm and secure a submission win late in the first round or early in the second. Love it or hate it, we might be moving toward Rousey vs. Tate III.
Lauzon vs. Gomi is a FOTN Candidate
Joe Lauzon has collected 13 Fight Night bonuses in his career. Six of them have been for Fight of the Night honors. He might be headed for his 14th and seventh on Saturday night.
Lauzon faces flawed Japanese MMA legend Takanori Gomi in the opening bout on the main card, and this one has barnburner written all over it. Gomi loves to trade, but he’s not incredibly hard to hit at age 36. Myles Jury proved that when he stopped Gomi in the first round back in September 2014.
Gomi also doesn’t have much of a ground game. That’s a problem, as Lauzon is one of the premier submission guys in the UFC with eight wins by submission in the promotion and six Submission of the Night bonuses before the award was renamed.
While Lauzon is an excellent submissions fighter, he also likes to stand and trade. With both men willing to throw hands, this one will be entertaining while it stays on the feet. However, it’s only a matter of time before Lauzon takes Gomi down.
Once that happens, Gomi will be in deep water, and Lauzon will finish with some sort of choke. Both men could very well be bloodied by the time that happens.
We’ve seen cards look terrible on paper before and turn out to be great. UFC Fight Night New Orleans on June 6 was a recent example. Fans can only hope we see a repeat or an even better show than the fighters put on that night.
All fight stats per Fight Metric unless otherwise noted.
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