The main event for UFC 192 on Saturday is light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson. The fight has the potential to be a great scrap, and for what it’s worth, Cormier is my pick to win. That said, DraftKings players would be wise to stay away from the bout.
Cormier’s salary is a whopping $11,000, which will drastically handicap your ability to fill out the rest of your lineup with winners. Gustafsson has a shot to win—or at least go the distance. Either of those scenarios would be bad for DraftKings players who take Cormier.
The best selection for the UFC 192 card is Sage Northcutt ($10,500). The dynamic 19-year-old lightweight has a bright future and a fantasy-friendly opponent in front of him for his UFC debut.
Francisco Trevino is a rugged competitor who will oblige Northcutt if he wants to stand and trade. If the fight goes to the ground, Trevino does defend chokes well, but he can be sloppy with his positioning. Against a big and strong young fighter like Northcutt, that could be the difference between surviving a scrum on the mat and being stopped with vicious ground-and-pound.
Northcutt is a dynamic striker who has captured three of his five wins by knockout. The other two wins came by way of submission. No fighter has gone the distance with him as of yet, and Trevino won’t be the first.
The takedown might be the best approach for Northcutt in this one. Trevino has only stopped 43 percent of takedown attempts in the UFC. There’s the potential for a slip-up from Northcutt as he tries hard to impress in his debut, but his talent level and versatility will shine through and rack up fantasy points.
Here’s a look at the rest of the ideal lineup for UFC 192.
Viktor Pesta ($10,000)
Derrick Lewis is a one-trick pony and made to order for Viktor Pesta. Lewis is looking to land a massive right hand in the first two minutes of a fight. If he doesn’t connect, his chances of winning are greatly reduced.
He has 12 wins in his MMA career, with six of them by first-round KO. Two of his three wins in the UFC have come from strikes in the first frame. Stamina is the main issue with Lewis, and that’s not a problem for Pesta.
The 25-year-old from the Czech Republic brings a diverse skill set into the Octagon. He has seven stoppages (four KOs, three submissions) in his 11 professional fights. While he can thump with his hands, he sets up almost everything with the takedown.
While he hasn’t been accurate in that regard just yet in the UFC (22 percent), that should change against Lewis, who has only stopped 50 percent of the takedown attempts against him.
Before the clinch or a shot takes place, Pesta may have to prove himself momentarily on the feet. Lewis has major power, so Pesta will have to be careful. However, Lewis’ defense has been non-existent (36 percent strike defense).
He’s also been knocked out twice (Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione) in just over a year. There are just too many reasons to like Pesta in this fight. He wins and gets the finish within the first two rounds—one way or the other.
Islam Makhachev ($9,700)
The fight between Islam Makhachev and Adriano Martins is a toss-up as both fighters are slotted at $9,700. This is a classic clash of styles as Makhachev is similar to his countryman and teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev wants to take his opponents down, but that may not be so easy against Martins.
The Brazilian has 80 percent takedown defense in his UFC career. In Martins’ last fight, he took on another of Makhachev’s countrymen, Rustam Khabilov.
Martins was able to stuff all four of Khabilov’s attempts to take him down. In fact, he countered by securing all four of his own takedowns. That gives reason to believe in Martins a bit in this fight, and it explains why the salaries are so close. Something has to give in this area, as there’s seemingly no way Makhachev is going to abandon his sambo background.
Makhachev is a different animal than Khabilov. The latter prefers to strike and hasn’t finished a fight via submission in over five years. Makhachev’s last three wins have come by submission, and his takedown accuracy is better than Khabilov’s (60 percent to 43).
To put it plainly, Martins is facing the next level of the fearsome Russian lightweight trifecta (Khabilov, Makhachev and Nurmagomedov), and we’ll be able to tell the difference on Saturday.
Makhachev will win a highly competitive bout via third-round submission.
Julianna Pena ($10,700)
Jessica Eye is one tough cookie, but she will crumble under the pressure, grappling prowess and determination that Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena brings into the Octagon.
Pena is a whirlwind and has been a DraftKings player’s dreams in her two UFC fights by averaging a whopping 124 fantasy points per fight. Eye has only stopped 57 percent of the takedowns attempted against her, and most of her opponents have been inferior to Pena when it comes to grappling.
In Pena’s two UFC bouts, she’s a perfect 3-for-3 in takedowns. She could have more, but once she gets opponents to the mat, they generally don’t get back to their feet.
Bank on a first- or second-round stoppage win for The Venezuelan Vixen.
Alan Jouban ($9,100)
There has to be one lower-salaried pick on any DraftKings UFC contest, and Alan Jouban is the one for this event. He faces another promising young Russian fighter in Albert Tumenov. Unlike Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, Tumenov likes to get the job done standing as opposed to leaning on a grappling-based discipline.
Jouban is also primarily a striker—and a dynamic one at that. His fights are often among the most exciting when he performs. Both men attempt less than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon action.
If this fight is sounding like a potential classic stand-up scrap to you, then we’re on the same page here. In that type of fight, things can go either way, but Jouban has demonstrated resolve and toughness that will aid him in this fight. He’s quicker and more explosive than Tumenov, and in this matchup, those qualities should make the difference.
Jouban has already won two Fight of the Night bonuses for his work against Matt Dwyer and Seth Baczynski. Another thrilling win is in the cards for him on Saturday.
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